ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Isn't Recon suppose to be getting back in there anytime soon???

If this system does decide to go to the Outer Banks or a little bit south like Myrtle Beach and then decides to stall, the swells and waves to the North will be just building on top of each other with higher tides, and the areas south of there will have severe Rip Currents and the tides will be so much lower for a more prolonged time. That combination on both sides will cause all types of problems.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have a link to the satellite views where you can see the forecast points? I've been looking for it and apparently Ive lost it. Thanks.

[DestinHurricane]

Anyone think this could become cat 5 for a short period

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone think this could become cat 5 for a short period

Hwrf model has it as a Cat 5 at one point.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Anyone think this could become cat 5 for a short period

It's very possible. NHC's forecast has this getting up to 145mph which is is only 12mph away from category 5 classification.

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Is that an eye forming at the end of this loop?

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Is that an eye forming at the end of this loop?

I think the center could be down to 24.3

[eastcoastFL]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Is that an eye forming at the end of this loop?

I think the center could be down to 24.3

It does appear to still be heading a bit south of west.

[eastcoastFL]

The GFS run thats going right now gets it down to 911mb

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like earnest intensification is about to take place. Tomorrow we may be dealing with a significantly different storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to get the infamous comma look...

[emeraldislenc]

The NHC predicted it would drop a little south in the 12 hour outlook if you look at the 12 hour position of the 11 pm advisory.

[Blinhart]

The NHC predicted it would drop a little south in the 12 hour outlook if you look at the 12 hour position of the 11 pm advisory.

Yes but it looks like it is already below 24.5 which is the lowest the NHC said it would get.

[rickybobby]

Looks like Florida is safe per the models. Just came back from Wal-mart and saw a few people returning batteries and water in daytona.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Florida is safe per the models. Just came back from Wal-mart and saw a few people returning batteries and water in daytona.

Ahh the people of Walmart forecast. I wonder when they bought it if they are already returning it?

[NotoSans]

From a climatological perspective there has never been a sub 900-mb system at this north.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Looking a lot better

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1038658415445327872

[eastcoastFL]

I always like the detail on the track map from the Navy

[Aric Dunn]

IT appears at least initially the last couple hours Florence has been moving south of west at a decent pace.

looks down to about 24.2 to 24.4

[Aric Dunn]

the apparent wsw motion is becoming more prevalent with every image..

may drop below 24N by morning unless it levels out.