ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like Zeta is getting pretty close to pulling some really moisture laden air into its circulation. I think another couple of hours and this starts to take off.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

On approach, latest GFS.
Looks like its going to stay away from the worst part of the Rossby Wave.
If that ARWB over FL moves more west, then intensity could be higher than currently expected.

[NevadaFan18]

I’ve haven’t looked at this thread in a while, but I’ve noticed a marked increase in hype surrounding the intensity of Zeta. Can anyone explain to me why? Are the HWRF and HMON goin’ nuts with it? Looking at the IR and satellite it looks like a skeleton, but I guess that huge outer band could help fend off any dry air that tries to disrupt the core.

Other than that, what is leading people to think that this has a shot at MH status? (This isn’t meant to be sarcastic, I’m genuinely asking)

[GCANE]

Looks like a small tower starting to popup on the CoC.
That warm-core feature is still there.

[xironman]

The llc looks quite far north of the mlc... again.

[Aric Dunn]

WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..

The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion

[aspen]

LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?

[Stormcenter]

Satellite presentation is improving.

[tiger_deF]

LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?

Satellite presentation is improving.

The duality of storm2k

[Stormcenter]

Expect east shifts?
I’m not sure about that, the models look
pretty locked it as they did recently with Delta.

WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..

The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion

https://i.ibb.co/WByxVMX/Capture.png

[Stormcenter]

So true. Lol

LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?

Satellite presentation is improving.

The duality of storm2k

[EquusStorm]

What a difference 12 hours (and the Yucatan) makes

[ClarCari]

LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?

Satellite presentation is improving.

The duality of storm2k

Hehe they are both right. While exposed, the LLC is very clearly aligned, well centered, and has significant banding surrounding it that it didn’t have before landfall.

All it needs it consistent convection to pop into it which honestly will happen sooner rather than later.

[Nimbus]

WE are well enough right of track.. looks to have been moving NNW the last 3 to 4 hours. expect east shifts..

The line is the last 3 to 4 hour motion

https://i.ibb.co/WByxVMX/Capture.png

Official track is still east of the 12Z GFS and HWRF landfall.
Models would have the strong side of a ~970 mb hurricane eyewall over NOLA, while the official track has the weak side of the storm over NOLA which could be ~30 knots less.

If you are in the cone be prepared for a hurricane regardless of course.

[tolakram]

LLC is exposed again. Are we sure this didn’t just take a gulp of dry air?

Satellite presentation is improving.

The duality of storm2k

Hehe they are both right. While exposed, the LLC is very clearly aligned, well centered, and has significant banding surrounding it that it didn’t have before landfall.

All it needs it consistent convection to pop into it which honestly will happen sooner rather than later.

Storms take 18 to 24 hours to properly recover from landfall, with few exceptions. I'm not sure we can tell what will happen for a short while, but the best intensity model (HWRF) shows a steady state for 12 to 18 hours before steady strengthening until landfall.

[TallyTracker]

What a difference 12 hours (and the Yucatan) makes

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/765039770606370877/770721717119090778/GOES06502020301gKEwQd.jpg
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/765039770606370877/770721717357510666/GOES18002020301nKlxtR.jpg

So thankful for the Yucatan pulling the punch out of Zeta! Could you imagine the hurricanes that would develop without the Yucatan being there?!?

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely tilted from North to South with the LLC to the MLC. Also appears the LLC to be tracking more NNW, maybe why it is tilted.

[aspen]

I’m now forecast to get up to 3 inches of snow on Friday from the jumbled mess that will be the combined remnants of Hurricane Zeta and Snowstorm Bill.

[xironman]

Obviously being over land disrupted it quite a bit. But the mlc is clearly south of the llc, and until that rectifies it will struggle a bit.

[Frank P]

Inflow Banding features starting to look better on the vis sat loops, with some increased convection slowly starting to build in the northern quad above the core, maybe a much needed kick start coming?