Bonnie Advisories

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, Charley's got all the time in the world, so he's got a shot to be something big. Even if Charley gets retired, though, I wonder if the WMO has enough of a sense of humor to make Clyde the replacement of Charley? That would be funny if they did that

[Stratosphere747]

Since Bonnie is so close and without a doubt a threat to the middle and Eastern GC that is what everyone is focusing on.....But the possible big threat is #3 soon to be Charley....Bonnie as Derek has hit on will be at the most a weak hurricane and a very small one if that....#3 "Charley" has a much better environment and better structure...Plus it is in what Dr. Neil Frank call the "envelope" which sends these type of systems towards the Tx,La coast....

[chadtm80]

All info for Bonnie and TD#3 are now available on the home page here at storm2k.. http://www.storm2k.org Including System Track Map and Text, Public Advisories, Forecast Advisories, Discussions, and Satellites.. All of these features will be updating in real time

[MGC]

Sure does look to be organizing. Nice feeder band forming in NE quad.....MGC

[Seadootoo]

Thanks Chad, Sure makes things alot easier.

[tallywx]

New VORTEX message just in:

URNT12 KNHC 092321
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/2321Z
B. 23 DEG 11 MIN N
88 DEG 53 MIN W
C. NA
D. 45 KT
E. 063 DEG 007 NM
F. 325 DEG 31 KT
G. 248 DEG 007 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 24 C/ 339 M
J. 26 C/ 336 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C20
N. 12345/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. AF963 0302A INVEST OB 21
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 2149Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


1) Looks like the eye feature was transient.

2) Let's analyze short term "wobble". Previous Recon. had it at 23 06N, 88 46W. Now it's at 23 11N, 88 53W. So that's a wobble of 5N, 7W. Still more west than north, albeit not the 3N, 9W as before.

[Dean4Storms]

Since Bonnie is so close and without a doubt a threat to the middle and Eastern GC that is what everyone is focusing on.....But the possible big threat is #3 soon to be Charley....Bonnie as Derek has hit on will be at the most a weak hurricane and a very small one if that....#3 "Charley" has a much better environment and better structure...Plus it is in what Dr. Neil Frank call the "envelope" which sends these type of systems towards the Tx,La coast....

Hold the phone here please, Bonnie has been underestimated to this point and the jury is still out on just how intense and large she gets before landfall. TD#3 is a larger storm and has alot of potential, but it also has alot in front of it to get through, i.e... UL shear and possibly land before it would ever make a threat to the US. Both systems at this point have potential to be very destructive so let's not belittle either.

[Derek Ortt]

dean,

where is this UL that you see for td 3? it sure is not in the caribbean

[tallywx]

Earlier two recon. fixes had a 3N, 9W degree movement. That's 288.43 degree heading, or WNW. Now, latest two recon. fixes have 5N, 7W heading. That's 305.54 degree heading. It's getting closer to that 310...

[Sean in New Orleans]

The storm is moving too fast right now to make that turn...I'm getting more concerned for the Central Gulf as time passes...

[chadtm80]

Yes Seadoo.. Nice to have all your eggs in one basket

[Dean4Storms]

Derek,

Didn't say that UL shear would necessarily get to it in the Carib. but the trough's swinging down into FL. and the GOM could get to it with shear before it ever made landfall into the Conus, if it eventually does come this way. That is what I'm saying, alot of ?? for TD#3 as far as a potential US threat that far down the road.

[newt3]

I'm really starting to wonder about the ole girl. Just like Alex in the formadable stages, no one thunk that it would get as strong as it did. Now we have ole Bonnie. Our local Met, wjhg news channel 7 Jason Kelly was commenting on what the hurricane hunters were finding just a bit ago, and how well the structure of the storm is at this point. Pressure already falling and higher winds on the increase, and an EYE WALL starting to form? My goodness, with that boiling gom water anything is possible. Could be a real suprise come thursday afternoon here in the panhandle.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 8 PM EDT About Tropical Storm Bonnie and TD#3:

...Special features...
Tropical Storm Bonnie center near 23.2n 88.7w at 09/2100 UTC...
or about 410 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River...
moving northwest 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure
1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 40 kt gusts 50 kt. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/wmo headers miatcmat2/
wtnt22 knhc for more details. Numerous strong showers and
thunderstorms in NW corner of Guatemala/southwest Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico from 17n to 19n between 90w and 92w.
Isolated moderate to locally strong showers and thunderstorms
from 20n to 27n between 87w and 92w. East-west oriented upper
level ridge...along a line from South Florida to deep south
Texas...in the Gulf of Mexico. The surface circulation around
Bonnie is tight...and the shower and thunderstorm pattern
is not well organized. Middle to upper level dry air also
covers much of the Gulf of Mexico west of 90w.

Tropical Depression Three center near 11.8n 62.0w at
09/2100 UTC...or about 30 miles southwest of Grenada...
moving west 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 1010 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 kt gusts 40 kt. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/wmo headers miatcmat3/wtnt23 knhc
for more details. The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit
impressive organization of the outer cloud structure...with
impressive upper-level anticyclonic outflow. There is no
concentration of deep shower/thunderstorm activity over the
center and a lack of showers and thunderstorms in the
southeastern quadrant. Given what appears to be a favorable
environment...steady strengthening is forecast. Numerous
strong showers and thunderstorms from 13.5n to 15.5n between
63w and 65.5w. Overcast multilayered clouds cover much of the
area from 10n to 20n between 60w and 70w. Isolated showers
are found as far away from the depression as from 15n to 17n
between 69w and 70w.

[Homey]

Are there any similarities?

[tallywx]

Per last two recon. fixes, Bonnie moved a straight line distance of 0.158 degrees in 87 minutes. At latitude 23 north, each latitude degree has a distance of cos(23 degrees)*69.0933 = 63.60 miles. Combining latitude and longitude at her heading applies a correction of .933 of latitude, meaning Bonnie moved 9.38 miles in 87 minutes...or 6.47 MPH. That's not very fast.

[Stratosphere747]

Dean....

I do not think Bonnie has been underestimated at all....She has been the focus for the last 3-4 days as something that could develop...But the system at the moment for what I am seeing does not look that impressive...But of course since it is so close to landfall in the GOM we should keep focus on her....But..........I am more worried about #3/Charley on what he could become....

[The Dark Knight]

We could wake up too a Min. Hurricane in the center of the GOM...... It obviously has a well-defined LLC....

[newt3]

I think Opal started out in the Bay of Campache(sp) But the forecast track is similar. Hopefully this one won't be near as strong as Opal.

[cycloneye]

09/2345 UTC 12.6N 63.1W T2.0/2.0 03 -- Atlantic Ocean
09/2345 UTC 23.3N 89.0W T2.0/2.0 BONNIE -- Atlantic Ocean