ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

thanks Ivan for posting the images....I never really learned how to do that so I just copy links....

seriously though stalling it out for a few days?

[Nederlander]

And sometimes, I almost wish the ECMWF would have a slump to remind us that we need to critically evaluate all models rather than just blindly latching onto one and riding it. The key word there being almost

I agree completely.. lots of euro worshipping around here.. if the cmc verifies, then the euro will have dozens of eggs all over its face.. im not taking any one particular models side here.. nor am i convince that a cat 4 is headed to louisiana.. id still like to see the trends over night and tomorrow.. BUT if the euro gets on board and stays on board, then all bets are off..

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Southwest Louisiana with the storm moving northeast i guess. That would put the oil spill on the right side of the storm which would push the oil inland and west deep into the La. marsh and towns. Crap is a much weaker word than I would use but gotta follow the rules
TIm

I agree with you neighbor this would be one of those “NO return anytime soon” situations. But my family is making planning in case we cannot return. We got a busy season ahead of us, indeed.

3ft of water + a BP mess = Holy @*&@*&$*………………. (fill in the blanks as you please). LOL

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Really shows the front digging in on the east coast. I sure hope this a case of the models overdoing a summertime front. Hard to imagine come monday if the models are still showing this and the national media catches wind of it what will go on around here. Still think monday is the day when we really get a good idea of what is going to happen with Alex

[Ivanhater]

thanks Ivan for posting the images....I never really learned how to do that so I just copy links....

seriously though stalling it out for a few days?

Look for a slowdown rock in the BOC Rock, that will be a clue. I think the models are sniffing out this pattern change...

[LaBreeze]

Audrey slowed in the BOC 53 years ago and then zoomed north to LA/TX - hmmm. I know it's not the same set up as with Alex, but I was just thinking.

[ROCK]

And sometimes, I almost wish the ECMWF would have a slump to remind us that we need to critically evaluate all models rather than just blindly latching onto one and riding it. The key word there being almost

I agree completely.. lots of euro worshipping around here.. if the cmc verifies, then the euro will have dozens of eggs all over its face.. im not taking any one particular models side here.. nor am i convince that a cat 4 is headed to louisiana.. id still like to see the trends over night and tomorrow.. BUT if the euro gets on board and stays on board, then all bets are off..

If the EURO doesnt verify then I will have to go into hiding...maybe change my name...

I have been tooting the EURO horn for some time now...

[LSU2001]

I don't think the EURO will flip all the way over to upper texas coast or SW La. I would expect a gradual movement north over the next few runs if it moves at all.
Tim

[Extremeweatherguy]

Extreme, haven't seen you around much. What is your take on all of this tonight? Compared to the GFS maps IH has been posting to the uprgraded one you just posted. Think there is a chance we could be in for a big surprise come tomorrow night/ monday morning once we see where Alex emerges?

My take at the moment is really one of wait and see. I feel that the most likely scenario is still one that takes Alex towards or south of the US/Mexico border, but I also am not ruling out the possibility that the storm could try and make a run towards a more northern scenario (especially since some of the models are trending that way recently). Once the storm emerges from the Yucatan and we have a few more sets of model runs to look at, I think Alex's future will become much clearer. The next 24-36 hours will be crucial IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

thanks Ivan for posting the images....I never really learned how to do that so I just copy links....

seriously though stalling it out for a few days?

Look for a slowdown rock in the BOC Rock, that will be a clue. I think the models are sniffing out this pattern change...

maybe so Ivan...if they are sniffing and the EURO bites....please go back and pull on my "I love EURO" posts and delete them please.....

[Ivanhater]

thanks Ivan for posting the images....I never really learned how to do that so I just copy links....

seriously though stalling it out for a few days?

Look for a slowdown rock in the BOC Rock, that will be a clue. I think the models are sniffing out this pattern change...

maybe so Ivan...if they are sniffing and the EURO bites....please go back and pull on my "I love EURO" posts and delete them please.....

Lol, I'll replace them with my Canadian hugger comments. Euro is my 2nd favorite model though

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't think the EURO will flip all the way over to upper texas coast or SW La. I would expect a gradual movement north over the next few runs if it moves at all.
Tim

Hey good to see you this year Tim. Hope all is going well with you down on the bayou.
Have to agree with you on this. Am not expecting any kind of drastic change, but will be very interesting to see if it shows a northward shift or not.

[Plant grower]

I don't think the EURO will flip all the way over to upper texas coast or SW La. I would expect a gradual movement north over the next few runs if it moves at all.
Tim

Hey good to see you this year Tim. Hope all is going well with you down on the bayou.
Have to agree with you on this. Am not expecting any kind of drastic change, but will be very interesting to see if it shows a northward shift or not.

Well I learned to never say never in the tropics remember Katrina with the historic model shift.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z HWRF:



Still showing a landfall south of the U.S. border, though it is slightly further north than the 18z run.

[thetruesms]

maybe so Ivan...if they are sniffing and the EURO bites....please go back and pull on my "I love EURO" posts and delete them please.....

but srsly, you can still love the Euro, it's one of the best out there. Just have to remember that like people, no model is perfect - just gotta do the research on it every time so you don't get burned when it does happen.

[Countrygirl911]

hi was wondering if this all pans out and does make landfall near SW LA then how far can we expect the oil to be blown inland also when will we know a definite location this is going

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Extreme, haven't seen you around much. What is your take on all of this tonight? Compared to the GFS maps IH has been posting to the uprgraded one you just posted. Think there is a chance we could be in for a big surprise come tomorrow night/ monday morning once we see where Alex emerges?

My take at the moment is really one of wait and see. I feel that the most likely scenario is still one that takes Alex towards or south of the US/Mexico border, but I also am not ruling out the possibility that the storm could try and make a run towards a more northern scenario (especially since some of the models are trending that way recently). Once the storm emerges from the Yucatan and we have a few more sets of model runs to look at, I think Alex's future will become much clearer. The next 24-36 hours will be crucial IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Saying the same thing here. Just trying to find out a little extra on the supposed east coast trof and front that could make it down here or not.

[LaBreeze]

hi was wondering if this all pans out and does make landfall near SW LA then how far can we expect the oil to be blown inland also when will we know a definite location this is going

We'll have to wait, plan, and watch. GOM storms have been known to do some rather strange things. Case in point, always be prepared. By the way, good to have you joining us Countrygirl911.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

hi was wondering if this all pans out and does make landfall near SW LA then how far can we expect the oil to be blown inland also when will we know a definite location this is going

To answer all your questions with one answer...It's all to early to tell. Seriously in regards to the oil we have to see how strong Alex is if he does move in our general direction and you never know a definite location, more like what area a storm will hit, until it actually does. And that will not be for at least 4 more days.

[Countrygirl911]

hi was wondering if this all pans out and does make landfall near SW LA then how far can we expect the oil to be blown inland also when will we know a definite location this is going

To answer all your questions with one answer...It's all to early to tell. Seriously in regards to the oil we have to see how strong Alex is if he does move in our general direction and you never know a definite location, more like what area a storm will hit, until it actually does. And that will not be for at least 4 more days.

Ty for answering my questions i really appreciate it so hopefully in a few days we will know if it going towards mexico or more north like TX or LA