ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[Nimbus]

According to WXman57 Danielle may not gain a lot of latitude again today. The ridge that is forcing the westward motion is forecast to migrate east in a few days and that migration may already have started.

There is a strong TUTT that is dropping through Virginia currently and the shear flow around the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge is more than what you would classify as just a weakness.

Exactly where and when Danielle recurves doesn't appear to make much difference except to Bermuda at the moment.

Of course every 20 to 100 storms something really unpredictable happens that completely busts a rock solid forecast. An ULL splits or two high pressure areas bridge or a storm stalls until the synoptic pattern changes etc.

[supercane]

Microwave imagery looks worse over past several hours:

0806Z:


1024Z:


You can see the western half of the circulation eroded by dry air.

[hurricaneCW]

And the curse of the season strikes again. It'll probably happen to the storm behind it to. I hope September can show off some excitement.

[cycloneye]

And the curse of the season strikes again. It'll probably happen to the storm behind it to. I hope September can show off some excitement.

Fish storms are not lackluster at all. On the contrary, those are the best to track to see the beauty of mother nature. Apart from that, fish storms count on the ACE department.

[KWT]

12z Best Track

AL, 06, 2010082412, , BEST, 0, 162N, 455W, 75, 983, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

Down to 75kts.

Yeah at all surprising, this hurricanes presentation has gone right down the pan recently!

Looks to me like this system is now moving at least 300 but could be even more, hard to tell with the way the western portion of the circulation just got a chunk taken out of it...just as it was about to explode as well!

[Nimbus]

We knew there was dry air north of it that would be pulled in days ago so it should be no surprise. West of 50 the environment moistens up but then she will be heading into shear and after that cooler SST's.

[tailgater]

This loop shows the dry air being sucked in.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

[tolakram]

This loop shows the dry air being sucked in.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

It's running into a ULL ... no surprise for this season.

[wxman57]

Looks like TS Danielle now.

[KWT]

I agree Wxman57 this look really ragged right now, it'd never get upgraded if it looked like this IMO...

That dry air is really killing the western side of the system but that doesn't mean this system is doomed either....just means its going to have to fight for a little while so to speak.

[Category 5]

I woke up looking for an eye and found an exposed center, no way this is a cat 2 anymore, it'll lose hurricane status later today at this rate.

[thetruesms]

Looks like TS Danielle now.

she seems a bit like a fussy teenager, always shooting off to extremes

[KWT]

We knew there was dry air north of it that would be pulled in days ago so it should be no surprise. West of 50 the environment moistens up but then she will be heading into shear and after that cooler SST's.

Its a shame the dry air hit it when it did because for just a few hours it popped out a tight eye and looked real neat and then obviously the dry air got entrained and has really knocked the stuffing out of this system.

[Riptide]

We knew there was dry air north of it that would be pulled in days ago so it should be no surprise. West of 50 the environment moistens up but then she will be heading into shear and after that cooler SST's.

Its a shame the dry air hit it when it did because for just a few hours it popped out a tight eye and looked real neat and then obviously the dry air got entrained and has really knocked the stuffing out of this system.

The weakening trend is cause for concern IMO. Could mean the difference between a fish and a landfall on Bermuda.

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

wow! the center looks devoid of any deep convection. it looks to have taken a big gulp of dry air last nite and its really eroded.

[ColinDelia]

[JTE50]

And the curse of the season strikes again. It'll probably happen to the storm behind it to. I hope September can show off some excitement.

Fish storms are not lackluster at all. On the contrary, those are the best to track to see the beauty of mother nature. Apart from that, fish storms count on the ACE department.

If they were all fish storms would this forum exist?

[cycloneye]

Wow, center is exposed.

[tolakram]

Our shear predictions are always so accurate

[KWT]

Cricky that really is a big weakening, and whats real interesting is its weakening in exactly the same place Colin started to weaken.

Possibly as low as 55-60kts right now!