ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a wind shift there...just very weak.

and it fits with the general wnw motion its been on.

[brunota2003]

But is it enough to upgrade? That is the million dollar question...and I bet that there are some hot debates going on at the NHC over that right now.

[Battlebrick]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 22:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 22:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°40'N 58°04'W (14.6667N 58.0667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 150 miles (242 km) to the NE (44°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 29kts (~ 33.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the N (360°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 23kts (From the E at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 455m (1,493ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 412m (1,352ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:25:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[tolakram]

Another VDM

[AdamFirst]

two VDMs now...

[brunota2003]

VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 202217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL972011
A. 20/22:10:20Z
B. 14 deg 40 min N
058 deg 04 min W
C. NA
D. 29 kt
E. 360 deg 49 nm
F. 083 deg 23 kt
G. 006 deg 52 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 22 C / 455 m
J. 23 C / 412 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:25:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Aric Dunn]

But is it enough to upgrade? That is the million dollar question...and I bet that there are some hot debates going on at the NHC over that right now.

sure it goes something like this... is a it far enough a long that by the time the next recon gets there it will be more defined and not less organized.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Upgrade has to be coming now..

[Nimbus]

The motion has looked WNW since this morning on the visuals. There may be several small vortexes in the system. Inflow did look interesting up near 16N 58.8W.

[ConvergenceZone]

But is it enough to upgrade? That is the million dollar question...and I bet that there are some hot debates going on at the NHC over that right now.

Yea, tough call. At the very least, I don't see why it won't be a depresson or a storm by the time it hits the central carib islands...Unless it's playing mind games with us like Emily did.

[brunota2003]

Recon believes the center is well defined enough to send out a VDM, twice now. That will be a big factor in the decision, I'm sure.

[ouragans]

For people in Guadeloupe and Martinique, here's a recap of the situation:

Guadeloupe and the Northern Islands (St Martin & St Barths) are still on Storm Watch, while Martinique surprisingly remains on a Severe Weather Watch... the weather observed since this morning was just due outer rainbands from 97L. The worst part is yet to come (more than likely tomorrow by sunrise).

Can someone please explain me why with a close circulation, 45 kts winds and 1006 mb, NHC does not issue an Special Outlook at least?

[sunnyday]

Perhaps it won't organize at all......Is that likely or even possible at this point?

[KatDaddy]

TS Irene ADV 1 must be any minute.

[HurricaneWarning92]

This is definitely not moving due west, not even just north of west, its been moving mainly wnw... if not, then i have very bad eye sight... and im just 19...

[brunota2003]

Recon going home...good job!

000
URNT15 KNHC 202223
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 34 20110820
221330 1433N 05754W 9606 00414 0074 +224 +090 190011 011 015 000 00
221400 1432N 05753W 9618 00402 0071 +226 +090 182011 012 014 000 00
221430 1431N 05752W 9603 00414 0070 +225 +090 189010 011 014 000 00
221500 1430N 05751W 9605 00411 0069 +231 +090 189013 014 015 001 00
221530 1429N 05750W 9606 00409 0067 +239 +089 187014 014 017 000 00
221600 1428N 05748W 9608 00410 0068 +240 +088 186016 016 018 001 00
221630 1427N 05747W 9605 00412 0068 +237 +088 180017 018 019 000 00
221700 1427N 05747W 9605 00412 0068 +237 +088 183017 017 015 001 03
221730 1424N 05746W 9303 00703 0084 +222 +082 190015 017 /// /// 03
221800 1423N 05746W 8916 01083 0090 +207 +074 187009 011 /// /// 03
221830 1423N 05748W 8499 01490 0086 +185 +066 174012 013 /// /// 03
221900 1424N 05750W 8020 01992 0087 +158 +058 179015 016 /// /// 03
221930 1425N 05751W 7638 02396 0083 +133 +049 186015 016 /// /// 03
222000 1426N 05753W 7301 02781 0078 +116 +040 180013 013 /// /// 03
222030 1427N 05754W 7008 03125 0078 +099 +033 173015 015 010 000 03
222100 1428N 05756W 6959 03182 0084 +088 +026 173014 015 010 000 00
222130 1430N 05758W 6966 03172 0084 +086 +025 176014 015 012 000 00
222200 1431N 05800W 6971 03166 0082 +090 +025 172014 015 015 000 00
222230 1432N 05803W 6969 03166 0078 +089 +025 170014 014 012 001 00
222300 1433N 05805W 6970 03166 0078 +088 +024 168014 014 017 000 00
$$
;

[johngaltfla]

NRL still has it as an invest. They might be waiting also. That's usually your first clue.

[tolakram]

[northjaxpro]

I would think 2 VDMs should be enough to declare the system IMO.

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972011_al092011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108202225
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011