ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

I am also calling Berly a hurricane.

agree....land friction tightening up the core..though not proven we have seen this in the past....RECON will be in shortly...

[ozonepete]

Just my opinion but the recent convection blowup and that radar sure makes it look like a hurricane now. Am very curious what RECON finds.

[Evil Jeremy]

...BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

Pressure down to 996mb.

[cycloneye]

...BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 80.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, a Hurricane Watch should be out too, which indicates the potential for hurricane conditions, although by no means a guarantee.

[Hurricane Andrew]

You mean 996 Jeremy?

[tolakram]

HH's cannot get lost on this trip...just stay with I-10 and continue to Atlantic

I thought you were joking.

[CronkPSU]

...BERYL TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

Pressure down to 966mb.

966!!?!?!

[ROCK]

we all saw what Huberto did...not saying it will be to that extreme but I am willing to bet some shiner we have a low end cat 1 now....JMO


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

You mean 996 Jeremy?

lol, slip of the finger.

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, this has to be one of the funniest things I have seen on this forum.

[tolakram]

Reminder.

If you are going to make a prediction you need to use the disclaimer. Beryl is a tropical storm until the NHC says otherwise. Thanks for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Mouton]

I guess even if they now find a 75mph wind, it will not be rated a huricane. The radar signature just does not warrant it IMO. It is a dry storm and not very compact about the center.

I hope I am not over rulled by the NHC because if I lose part of my roof, I don't want to deal with the blasted 2% deductable!

Someone earlier mentioned the doses of rain followed immediatly by sun...same thing here so far. On radar it looks like there is one solid band of rain in the NE quadrant now, but that is the only truly solid area I can make out. My wife said if she did not know different, she said it looks more like a nor easter than a tropical cyclone.

[CrazyC83]

ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER
LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO
TO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...
AND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.

60 kt is too close for comfort if they mention such strengthening possible.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 272044
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 08 20120527
203530 3039N 08238W 5765 04736 0135 -014 -238 037033 034 /// /// 03
203600 3040N 08236W 6026 04382 0140 +003 -121 031032 034 /// /// 03
203630 3041N 08233W 6268 04061 0141 +017 -057 031029 030 /// /// 03
203700 3041N 08231W 6473 03798 0136 +035 -066 033030 030 /// /// 03
203730 3042N 08229W 6643 03582 0130 +050 -073 031031 032 /// /// 03
203800 3042N 08227W 6682 03526 0123 +051 -062 027031 032 /// /// 03
203830 3042N 08225W 6666 03546 0128 +046 -076 029032 033 /// /// 03
203900 3042N 08223W 6678 03534 0131 +047 -074 028030 032 /// /// 03
203930 3042N 08221W 6752 03448 0132 +054 -060 027031 031 /// /// 03
204000 3042N 08218W 6871 03298 0131 +057 -003 032031 032 /// /// 03
204030 3041N 08216W 6979 03163 0127 +060 +029 028031 034 /// /// 03
204100 3041N 08214W 7082 03035 0126 +061 +051 022027 028 /// /// 03
204130 3041N 08212W 7186 02913 0124 +067 +054 026026 027 /// /// 03
204200 3041N 08210W 7292 02793 0123 +074 +058 027029 031 /// /// 03
204230 3041N 08209W 7394 02682 0126 +077 +067 036030 032 /// /// 03
204300 3041N 08207W 7508 02543 0133 +075 +063 038031 033 /// /// 03
204330 3041N 08205W 7617 02424 0118 +098 +046 034030 032 /// /// 03
204400 3041N 08203W 7726 02305 0122 +100 +055 032029 030 /// /// 03
204430 3041N 08201W 7839 02188 0124 +107 +073 031029 030 /// /// 03
204500 3041N 08159W 7955 02066 0128 +113 +080 030029 031 /// /// 03
$$
;


at operatioal altitude..

[Hurricane Andrew]

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[JonathanBelles]

In my opinion: Stronger winds on radar and better satellite appearance should allow recon to find a 70 mph tropical storm, if trends continue hurricane at 8pm. Hurricane watch should have been issued.

[Evil Jeremy]

Next 2 recon data sets should yield some answers.

[lester]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING ONE INCH HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MIRAMAR...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

[GCANE]

At this point there is no capped air ahead of Beryl.

CAPE is about 1000 to 1500.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Land interaction not much of an issue currently.