2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF is hinting at waves starting to role off in a week or so. No development, but these look like they are stronger than recent waves. They are also at a higher latitude.

Also it drops the Tropical Atlantic development it had at days 9-10.

[Hurricaneman]

Getting hints from the last several runs of the GFS that it could get convectivly active around or after the 20th and it seems the Euro does the same thing after the 15th so I'd watch that time period in the models the next week for another hurricane or even major

[Hammy]

Euro went back to showing absolutely nothing for the full run.

[otowntiger]

Euro went back to showing absolutely nothing for the full run.

Might be on to something. I think it looks like August will be well below normal.

[cycloneye]

It may have be a very active September and October to meet the NOAA new active forecast.

[Blown Away]

It may have be a very active September and October to meet the NOAA new active forecast.

The 06z GFS says nothing out to August 26th...

[Siker]

Considering the EPS shows well below average pressures across the basin beginning a week from now and lasting through 15 days, chances are higher than not we have something(s) develop during that time.

[jason1912]

The CMC gets things going by day 10.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The CMC gets things going by day 10.

The GFS & Euro also have a pattern that shows things getting going. I personally am not looking for "model storms" to get hyped but an overall pattern that shows favorable conditions for storms and they're appearing in the long range.

[Alyono]

The CMC gets things going by day 10.

The GFS & Euro also have a pattern that shows things getting going. I personally am not looking for "model storms" to get hyped but an overall pattern that shows favorable conditions for storms and they're appearing in the long range.

If nothing is forming, the models are not saying conditions are favorable. If there are no disturbances to form, despite low shear, increased moisture, lower pressures, etc, there is something else in the environment that is quite unfavorable

[AxaltaRacing24]

The CMC gets things going by day 10.

The GFS & Euro also have a pattern that shows things getting going. I personally am not looking for "model storms" to get hyped but an overall pattern that shows favorable conditions for storms and they're appearing in the long range.

If nothing is forming, the models are not saying conditions are favorable. If there are no disturbances to form, despite low shear, increased moisture, lower pressures, etc, there is something else in the environment that is quite unfavorable

Do you think we will have a few storms/canes before the month ends or do you think it will be quiet?

[Alyono]

The GFS & Euro also have a pattern that shows things getting going. I personally am not looking for "model storms" to get hyped but an overall pattern that shows favorable conditions for storms and they're appearing in the long range.

If nothing is forming, the models are not saying conditions are favorable. If there are no disturbances to form, despite low shear, increased moisture, lower pressures, etc, there is something else in the environment that is quite unfavorable

Do you think we will have a few storms/canes before the month ends or do you think it will be quiet?

likely the next 7 to 10 days, aside from possible development off of the East Coast, should be on the quiet side

[gatorcane]

I don't trust the upgraded GFS and ECMWF with genesis predictions beyond about 5 days (and that may be a stretch). The 12Z ECMWF running now suddenly develops something which is a good example (day 7) where it only had a weak wave on the 00Z run:

[Hurricaneman]

I don't trust the upgraded GFS and ECMWF with genesis predictions beyond about 5 days (and that may be a stretch). The 12Z ECMWF running now suddenly develops something which is a good example (day 6) where it only had a weak wave on the 00Z run:

https://s28.postimg.org/spkjqxbvh/ecmwf ... _atl_8.png

could be picking up on something, let's see if it's there the next couple of runs before we jump on board

[WeatherEmperor]

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[gatorcane]

I don't trust the upgraded GFS and ECMWF with genesis predictions beyond about 5 days (and that may be a stretch). The 12Z ECMWF running now suddenly develops something which is a good example (day 6) where it only had a weak wave on the 00Z run:

https://s28.postimg.org/spkjqxbvh/ecmwf ... Norm_atl_8

could be picking up on something, let's see if it's there the next couple of runs before we jump on board

Right that is my point. I am not confident to say there will or will not be activity in the Atlantic beyond 5 days with the upgraded GFS and ECMWF models. This could very-well be a legit system.

[Alyono]

that EC system likely is convective feedback. Look at the very small size. Likely driven by the grid scale convective parameterization, not the large scale environment

[WeatherEmperor]

that EC system likely is convective feedback. Look at the very small size. Likely driven by the grid scale convective parameterization, not the large scale environment

I am glad you brought this up. From your other post, if there is low shear, warm waters, etc...all the conditions we are looking for in terms of development but yet there must be something in the atmosphere to cause the models not to show any development....doesnt this make you think 2013 all over again? I hate to bring up 2013 cause I dont want to create arguments with anybody and it is still very early in the season, but if we wake up next week and still see no development in the models shouldnt we have to start considering another 2013ish kind of season? What are your thoughts on this??


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[Alyono]

that EC system likely is convective feedback. Look at the very small size. Likely driven by the grid scale convective parameterization, not the large scale environment

I am glad you brought this up. From your other post, if there is low shear, warm waters, etc...all the conditions we are looking for in terms of development but yet there must be something in the atmosphere to cause the models not to show any development....doesnt this make you think 2013 all over again? I hate to bring up 2013 cause I dont want to create arguments with anybody and it is still very early in the season, but if we wake up next week and still see no development in the models shouldnt we have to start considering another 2013ish kind of season? What are your thoughts on this??


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I'd say look at the low level winds. We had development in June and July despite horrible large scale conditions (aside from Cindy) due to very favorable low level winds with the westerly wind burst in the tropical Atlantic and then again with Emily due to the front focusing convergence. My guess is there is some net low level divergence, which is keeping any disturbance from forming

[Kingarabian]

Development is currently favored in the EPac by the models. So I would assume that will intermittently cease Atlantic activity until favorable conditions shift back towards the Atlantic.