Caribbean - Central America Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 080913
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTHWEST FROM ST. CROIX DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY UNDER HAZY SKIES.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 080913
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
HAZY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
ONLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WERE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTHWEST FROM ST. CROIX DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY UNDER HAZY SKIES.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
$$
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re:
Gustywind wrote: Watching all of what is going on to our east
From the 805 AM Discussion
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
Wayne Verno, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 8, 2009 5:04 am ET
Back over the Atlantic, a couple of weak tropical waves continue to move west across the tropical basin, but these are not expected to show any organization. The Atlantic basin is forecast to remain quiet through the weekend.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 9N21W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 18N29W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR AND THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MASKING THE
WAVE SIGNATURE AND THE CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO
11N59W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO OVER
MEXICO BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
24N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
AXNT20 KNHC 081041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 9N21W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 18N29W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR AND THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MASKING THE
WAVE SIGNATURE AND THE CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO
11N59W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO OVER
MEXICO BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
24N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
0 likes
-
Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AXNT20 KNHC 081041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 9N21W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 18N29W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR AND THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MASKING THE
WAVE SIGNATURE AND THE CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO
11N59W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO OVER
MEXICO BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
24N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER MOBILE ALABAMA THROUGH 25N95W TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS JUST TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ALONG 28N86W TO 25N90W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
83W-90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-81W AND S OF 17N W OF
81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS
DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH
32N63W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO BEYOND
32N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM 29N73W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W BUT IS NOT
GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 31N47W
TO 25N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 32N45W TO 27N52W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING
THE AREA E OF 42W AND FROM 60W-72W.
$$
WALLACE
AXNT20 KNHC 081041
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 9N21W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 18N29W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITH A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 13N-16N.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR AND THE
LOCATION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR
DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE THUS MASKING THE
WAVE SIGNATURE AND THE CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH
THE ITCZ THAN THE WAVE ITSELF. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N54W TO
11N59W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
NOW ALONG THE TRAILING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 76W-79W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS NOTED
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N TO OVER
MEXICO BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND 97W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF
24N BETWEEN 89W-93W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N31W 13N50W 10N63W. A
NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
EXTENDING FROM 15N46W TO 8N51W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N49W TO 11N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF W AFRICA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM
12N20W TO THE COAST NEAR 10N14W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER MOBILE ALABAMA THROUGH 25N95W TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS JUST TO THE SE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA ALONG 28N86W TO 25N90W WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN
83W-90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
W GULF. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-81W AND S OF 17N W OF
81W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS
DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH
32N63W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS COMBINATION IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO BEYOND
32N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM 29N73W TO OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W BUT IS NOT
GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 31N47W
TO 25N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 32N45W TO 27N52W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC REMAINS
TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING
THE AREA E OF 42W AND FROM 60W-72W.
$$
WALLACE
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Impressive wave emerging Africa.We will have to watch it as it tracks across the Atlantic.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
08/1200 UTC OVER THE FAR E ATLC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
15W/16W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NEAR 11N16W.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM BAMAKO IN MALI INDICATE THAT THE
DIRECTION OF THE FLOW BELOW 550 MB SHIFTED FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 07/1200 UTC AND 07/1800 UTC...SUGGESTING
WAVE PASSAGE AT BAMAKO DURING THIS TIME. SUNY ALBANY GFS
ANALYSES DEPICT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 5-DAY HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM FOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N15W TO 10N17W TO 10N21W.
$$
COHEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT
08/1200 UTC OVER THE FAR E ATLC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
15W/16W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE NEAR 11N16W.
TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM BAMAKO IN MALI INDICATE THAT THE
DIRECTION OF THE FLOW BELOW 550 MB SHIFTED FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 07/1200 UTC AND 07/1800 UTC...SUGGESTING
WAVE PASSAGE AT BAMAKO DURING THIS TIME. SUNY ALBANY GFS
ANALYSES DEPICT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE 5-DAY HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM FOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AFRICA
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A BAND OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N15W TO 10N17W TO 10N21W.
$$
COHEN
0 likes
here is a web cam located at pelican resort in Simpson bay on St. Maarten.
http://www.pelicanresort.com/webcam.asp
2 views, the pool and the beach
and this is a web cam of Nettle Bay on the French side of the island.
http://stmartin-meteo.com/cam_view.htm
http://www.pelicanresort.com/webcam.asp
2 views, the pool and the beach
and this is a web cam of Nettle Bay on the French side of the island.
http://stmartin-meteo.com/cam_view.htm
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Hello Barbara.Good web cams you brought.The one of the bay is now on the first post of thread.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOW IT BY A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WHICH EXTEND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 58 WEST IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER. FOR TUESDAY...A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LOCATED NEAR 43 WEST...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS
TO HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT IN OUR WEATHER. LATEST SJU-GFS TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WET SCENARIO FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COINCIDE AS WELL WITH THE LATEST SJU-GFS
PROG SOUNDING WHICH INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS
2.29 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WAVE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST BY
COMPUTER MODELS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HAZE AND PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO LOCALLY 30 KNOTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJBQ AND NEAR ANY SHRA
OR TSRA. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS TIST...AND TISX.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
231 PM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY...FOLLOW IT BY A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DRY AIR CONTINUED OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN WHICH EXTEND ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 58 WEST IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT HAVING LITTLE IMPACT IN OUR LOCAL WEATHER. FOR TUESDAY...A
TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON LOCATED NEAR 43 WEST...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A STRONGER TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST BY COMPUTER MODELS
TO HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT IN OUR WEATHER. LATEST SJU-GFS TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS ANALYSIS INDICATED A VERY WET SCENARIO FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COINCIDE AS WELL WITH THE LATEST SJU-GFS
PROG SOUNDING WHICH INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE AS HIGH AS
2.29 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WAVE EXPECTED
FOR THURSDAY...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST BY
COMPUTER MODELS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HAZE AND PASSING SHRA OR TSRA. IN
ADDITION...BRIEF SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO LOCALLY 30 KNOTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJBQ AND NEAR ANY SHRA
OR TSRA. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS TIST...AND TISX.
0 likes
http://cdst.e-monsite.com/rubrique,webc ... 01403.html
This a link to the weeb cam of the north part of the island of Martinica;you can see th Mount Pelée just in the NE corner of the view ( when there are no clouds!!! ).I'will send soon the weeb cam to the Soufrière of Guadeloupe as you can sse it from my house ( when this dammed site will work... )
Enjoy..
This a link to the weeb cam of the north part of the island of Martinica;you can see th Mount Pelée just in the NE corner of the view ( when there are no clouds!!! ).I'will send soon the weeb cam to the Soufrière of Guadeloupe as you can sse it from my house ( when this dammed site will work... )
Enjoy..
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
HUC,that web cam is now posted at the first post of the thread at page 1.Keep them comming to make a big web cam viewing place. 
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Here are the four waves that are east of us.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. MODEL
GUIDANCE ANALYSES DEPICT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING WWD ACROSS WRN GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU OVER W AFRICA DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. AS THE
WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST...A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
16W-21W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N23W TO 17N35W MOVING W NEAR 23
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE THAT REMAINS TILTED IN A SE TO NW ORIENTATION
BASED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS WAVE...MAINLY FROM 11N-17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...HOWEVER DRY AIR ALOFT AND ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW
WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER NEAR THIS WAVE. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK
PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-63W.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 08 2009
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. MODEL
GUIDANCE ANALYSES DEPICT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE TRACKING WWD ACROSS WRN GUINEA AND
GUINEA-BISSAU OVER W AFRICA DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. AS THE
WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W AFRICA COAST...A BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
16W-21W.
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N23W TO 17N35W MOVING W NEAR 23
KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED MAXIMUM IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE THAT REMAINS TILTED IN A SE TO NW ORIENTATION
BASED ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS WAVE...MAINLY FROM 11N-17N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-26W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...HOWEVER DRY AIR ALOFT AND ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ARE LIMITING
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 41W-44W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 13 KT.
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE FLOW
WITHIN THE 950-800 MB LAYER NEAR THIS WAVE. THE CIMSS WAVETRAK
PRODUCT ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-63W.
http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
917 PM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE SMALL AND SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ONLY A FEW ARE MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE WINDWARD COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AFTER 8 AM AST AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POPS FOR
THIS. BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH IN THIS WAVE MOVING
AT 13 KNOTS SO TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE PRINCIPAL
DIFFERENCE. NEVERTHELESS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE
WETTER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EAST OF
THERE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING DURING A WIND SURGE AFTER A WAVE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE
IS A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE ANOTHER EPISODE
ARRIVE. SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY...BUT WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE ZONES. THE MODELS FROM THE NRL SUGGEST THAT
DUST WILL ABATE AFTER THE 12TH OF AUGUST.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
917 PM AST SAT AUG 8 2009
.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE SMALL AND SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ONLY A FEW ARE MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ON THE WINDWARD COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES.
LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY
AFTER 8 AM AST AND HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE POPS FOR
THIS. BOTH NAM AND GFS MODELS HAVE THE TROUGH IN THIS WAVE MOVING
AT 13 KNOTS SO TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE PRINCIPAL
DIFFERENCE. NEVERTHELESS...TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE
WETTER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS EAST OF
THERE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MODELS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING DURING A WIND SURGE AFTER A WAVE PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AT 850 MB REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
GFS SOLUTION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THERE
IS A LITTLE BREAK IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE ANOTHER EPISODE
ARRIVE. SUSPECT SKIES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY...BUT WILL NOT
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE ZONES. THE MODELS FROM THE NRL SUGGEST THAT
DUST WILL ABATE AFTER THE 12TH OF AUGUST.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Barbara,I went to stormcarib and was surprised as a link to the tent thread was posted there.Lets see if we get a few people from there to come here.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145313
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Eastern Caribbean Thread=Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Good morning fellow Caribbean friends.A wet period comming for us.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SUN AUG 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS NEW
WEEK WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED ON THU BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE NCNTRL COAST ON ENE WINDS. 00Z
JSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THAT SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HAS
COMPLETELY ERODED. THEREFORE...XPC SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK.
NEXT WX FEATURE IS TROF AND/OR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W THAT COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN PWAT BUT IS ANALYZED BY TAFB AS A TROF AND NOT
AS A TROPICAL WAVE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS FCST FOR THU BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH SHOW PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 2.3 INCHES AND K
INDICES IN THE MID 30S. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH PW AIR THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 21N. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SAHARAN DUST DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT IT WILL INTERFERE WITH THIS WAVE.
A MORE CLIMO FCST WAS INDICATED BY NEXT WEEKEND IN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIG WX FEATURES.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST SUN AUG 9 2009
.SYNOPSIS...SEVERAL TROPICAL WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS NEW
WEEK WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EXPECTED ON THU BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MARKED INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS MAKING IT INLAND ACROSS THE NCNTRL COAST ON ENE WINDS. 00Z
JSJ SOUNDING SHOWED THAT SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND HAS
COMPLETELY ERODED. THEREFORE...XPC SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK.
NEXT WX FEATURE IS TROF AND/OR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W THAT COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN PWAT BUT IS ANALYZED BY TAFB AS A TROF AND NOT
AS A TROPICAL WAVE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUE.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS FCST FOR THU BASED ON THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
MODELS WHICH SHOW PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO 2.3 INCHES AND K
INDICES IN THE MID 30S. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE ENVELOPE
OF HIGH PW AIR THAT EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS 21N. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SAHARAN DUST DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT IT WILL INTERFERE WITH THIS WAVE.
A MORE CLIMO FCST WAS INDICATED BY NEXT WEEKEND IN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIG WX FEATURES.
0 likes
Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 19 guests