Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

This is the 18z Para GFS and WAY out there, but did anyone else happen to glimpse the hurricane it is depicting in the very long range?

HR 252: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_252l.gif

HR 276: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_276l.gif

HR 300: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_300l.gif

HR 324: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_324l.gif

HR 348: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_348l.gif

HR 372: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_372l.gif

HR 384: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... v_384l.gif

Hopefully this is not a sign of things to come next month..

Holy smokes,tracks over me .But is long range so you know the drill. If the EURO,UKMET,NOGAPS and CMC join later,then it will be something to take seriously.

[HURAKAN]

that's lalaland territory, where fairies and the smurfs also live!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Are any models showing the possible development mid-next week moving into the central gulf that JB and a few other on here mentioned two days ago?

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

When is the GFS Para officially supposed to replace the current GFS?

<RICKY>

[Scorpion]

Finally we get our first fantasy cane. Its a start at least

[cycloneye]

Luis,

When is the GFS Para officially supposed to replace the current GFS?

<RICKY>

On July 27.

[BigA]

00z GFS picks up what looks like the same "system" the 18z Para GFS has in the long range. It has the low moving off Africa at 180 hours and developing from there. Still a long way off. If the models in 3 days show it coming off in 114 hours and developing, I'll be interested.

[blp]

00Z EURO has a weak reflection at 240hrs.



Also, the GFS operational is showing it as well but in a much weaker state and further west than the 00Z GFS PARA.



It will be interesting to see if we get more consistency from both models tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

GFS operational continues to show development in the MDR area starting by the end of the first week of August.But I prefer to wait for the rest of the models to get more interested, however is entretaiment to look at these long range loops.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[StormClouds63]

2-3 weeks until Colin, IMO. Numbers will continue to lag far behind 2005.

[cycloneye]

New GFS delayed by one day=July 28

It was supposed to be out by the 27th, but read below why they will delay it by one day.

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 10-15... AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: TIMOTHY MCCLUNG
SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SUBJECT: AMENDED DATE: GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM CHANGES:
RESCHEDULED FOR JULY 28 2010

REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 10-15
TRANSMITTED APRIL 2 2010...AMENDED TIN 10-15
TRANSMITTED JUNE 14 2010

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL DOWNSTREAM DEPENDENCIES...THE EFFECTIVE
DATE OF THE UPGRADE IS BEING RESCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 28.
IF THE NWS DECLARES A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY ON OR AROUND JULY 28
THE IMPLEMENTATION MIGHT BE DELAYED. ANOTHER TIN WILL BE SENT IF
THIS OCCURS.

[jcoffee]

2-3 weeks until Colin, IMO. Numbers will continue to lag far behind 2005.

It might not happen this year, but we will probably have years like 2005 at least once a decade or more because of global warming. There will also be many more monsters like Katrina and Rita. Monster-sized storms are on the rise because of global warming, scientists say.

[rockyman]

12z HWRF (from Bonnie)--look east of the Islands:


Also, 12z GFDL:


12z GFS Operational:


12z CMC:

[Macrocane]

Looking at those models it seems like the EPAC is finally going to have another tropical system, it's unbelievable how this July has been so inactive after the most active June on record in that basin.

[KWT]

ECM actually also shows a weak reflection of a system in the same region around 120hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[Ivanhater]

There is just to much the models are sniffing out, we should have Colin soon imo....

[thetruesms]

New GFS delayed by one day=July 28

It was supposed to be out by the 27th, but read below why they will delay it by one day.

This is starting to sound like the AHPS precipitation analysis changes. A month after the original implementation date, it finally happened and then it had issues in implementation, requiring another month to get everything finished

[southerngale]

2-3 weeks until Colin, IMO. Numbers will continue to lag far behind 2005.

As they should. Nobody expects 2005 like numbers. 2005 was an anomaly - I am surprised by the continued comparisons.

[jcoffee]

2005 numbers may seem like no big deal in the future ahead for our sad polluted world. Global warming will heat up the oceans and you will probably have storms regularly even in April and December for the Atlantic.

[Macrocane]

I know you're new so I don't want to sound mean but that's like the 9th time you say that, back on 2005 some people said that Global warming was going to be resposible for an increase in Tropical Cyclone activity but those ideas have been thrown away and now most of the scientist agree that the situation is more complex and actually tropical cyclone activity has somewhat reduced around the world especially on the last 2 years.