ATL : INVEST 92L - DISCUSSION

[jinftl]

Understandably, alot of attention is being paid to the prospect of a tropical system moving into the Gulf in this Oil-spill year. We can't forget the millions living on the brink of survival still in Haiti. 92L has the potential...as an invest...to drop heavy, flooding rain on a nation that has no capacity to handle what we in the U.S. can see in a typical summer afternoon deluge. If Haiti sees the amount of rain that Puerto Rico has seen from 92L, these pictures could be replaced with much more serious ones...

Photos from a rainy afternoon in Port au Prince last week...

[canes101]

Hopefully 92L stays 92L and finds a home washed ashore somewhere other than Louisiana - Florida. This oil spill has been crazy and I don't see a storm approaching the gulf doing us any favors at all.

I work in the helicopter industry (don't fly em') but having to evacuate bases and just the whole tropical storm / hurricane thing .... IT'S ONLY JULY!

Its actually only JUNE!!

[KWT]

Those photos are worrying, I don't want to think what will happen if we get even a minimal hurricane...

Anyway not much to really watch over the next few days, shear is still awful for this system, it does have a chance in the gulf but we shall see what happens.

[xironman]

The GFS has dropped the development for the last two runs on 92L, looks like we are close to the end.

[Gustywind]

For info Guadeloupe, Martinica and the Northern Leewards back off yellow alert, return to green code .
http://www.meteo.gp/index.php?page=Incl ... e=spe_gene

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200542
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[perk]

The GFS has dropped the development for the last two runs on 92L, looks like we are close to the end.

Now how many times have we said this about 92L

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH
COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI AS THE
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

The final RIP! The thread will remain here even though it was deactivated to allow more comments from the members. And another reason is just in case they reactivate it again.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006201134
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

See the long track of Ex 92L at hyperlink below.

Whole Track of Ex 92L

[xironman]

The GFS has dropped the development for the last two runs on 92L, looks like we are close to the end.

Now how many times have we said this about 92L

Up until now it has seemed at least one reliable model has hinted on regeneration of 92L. Now the only one that does is the ..... NAM!



That's a counter indicator if I ever saw one.

[perk]

xironman point well taken, but as one of our pro-mets has stated that it would be at the very least tuesday before 92L will be out of the shear zone. At that time we will see if there's any energy left.

[wxman57]

I do see a very good trend in the latest GFS runs. New runs build the ridge in stronger along the northern Gulf coast next week, similar to the Euro. Also similar to the Euro is that the GFS no longer builds a big upper low in the SW Gulf next week. So the steering currents that would be able to take this system toward the LA coast have changed, at least in the model runs. This would indicate two things - a track more westerly across the northern Yucatan around Thursday an inland into northern Mexico next weekend and a lesser chance of development.

Looking better for the oil spill area.

[cycloneye]

IMO,I dont know if it will be upgraded to a TD,but at the very least,this system will be revisited when post season analysis is done.

[wxman57]

IMO,I dont know if it will be upgraded to a TD,but at the very least,this system will be revisited when post season analysis is done.

I don't know, Lus. I think it'll be long forgotten at the end of this season. There isn't much to revisit. Yes, it clearly had an LLC at one time. That was not a question which could be answered later with more data. However, convection wasn't organized nor persistent enough for the upgrade. That won't change post-season. I think it will be forgotten as one of the few invests which didn't develop in 2010.

[Sanibel]

I don't know if there's a TUTT out there but if there is I think it just hit one and vaporized.


92L is like the first ghost system of 2010. It showed us the season is set-up and the tropical pattern is in play. In a couple of months we won't be guessing...

[KWT]

Yeah I agree with Wxman57, it did have good convection at times and clearly did look like a TD at times but it could never keep hold of its convection during the daytime hours, hence why the NHC never upgraded it, probably the right thing in the end.

Lets hope we don't have a similar tracking real hurricane this season.

[x-y-no]

Did it just get deactivated again? It's gone from the map.

[AdamFirst]

Yes, it was deactivated.

Ding dong, the wicked old witch at last is dead. Plus if any of you are dads you should stay away from here today...it's fathers day you know

[lrak]

Yay, I can handle knee slappers all summer, and a good rain next weekend would be awesome.

[HURAKAN]

One of the longest invests ever. Started on June 11 and finally deactivated today, June 20.