ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jinftl]

If this gets named Emily at some point today (July 31), this will tie 1995 as the 2nd earliest named E storm over the past 30 seasons (since 1981). The season in first place is of course 2005 (E stormed named on July 13).

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know why people have a problem with the word "recurve" when it is very clear that we are aware that the islands will be affected by this. Stop focusing on the word "recurve" and focus on the system itself. We say "recurve" because it will recurve. It's that basic. Stop making it complicated. There are much larger issues at hand, such as how this system will affect the Caribbean in a couple days.

[HurricaneWarning92]

It doesnt have that look anymore in the sat. pic. But i guess they do see something to have made the decision of raising it to 100%.

[Evil Jeremy]

With the 100% on the TWO, I think we will get the upgrade at 11am. That's enough time to get morning visible satellite shots. Recon doesn't take off until 11:30, so unless the NHC will start TD5 off with a special advisory, the next cycle is at 5pm, and that's already pushing it in terms of storm preparations in the Caribbean. Starting a system at 11am rather than 5pm is pretty much a good day's worth of island prep missed. It's only a 6 hour window, but it's the most important 6 hours of the day in terms of hurricane prep, it's when the stores are open.

[lebron23]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl ... 100_22.png

Florida straits?

[HurricaneWarning92]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

see guys? its still early to say where this thing is going.

[ROCK]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

south and west we go....weak up the straits...HWRF and EURO up next....

[ROCK]

model consensus just went out the window......

[lebron23]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

south and west we go....weak up the straits...HWRF and EURO up next....

HWRF still took it north.

[HurricaneWarning92]

model consensus just went out the window......

thats not surprising. we are still days out...

[TwisterFanatic]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

Now, that wouldn't be good.

[lebron23]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

see guys? its still early to say where this thing is going.

Hurricane Ike should prove that anything is possible with the models and tracks of systems, we went from a possible east coast threat to a landfall in Texas with Ike.

[TwisterFanatic]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

south and west we go....weak up the straits...HWRF and EURO up next....

HWRF still took it north.

HWRF has a big right bias, so I am not surprised.

[lebron23]

00z GFDL track shows up nice on this site...bends back west toward gulf

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif

[ROCK]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

south and west we go....weak up the straits...HWRF and EURO up next....

HWRF still took it north.

defintely the outlier here.....need the EURO to break the tie.....GFDL further south under PR, clips Hispa,

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MSL126.gif

[HurricaneWarning92]

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011073100/invest91l.2011073100_22.png

Florida straits?

see guys? its still early to say where this thing is going.

Hurricane Ike should prove that anything is possible with the models and tracks of systems, we went from a possible east coast threat to a landfall in Texas with Ike.

yep i remember. i was in sophomore year of high school and everyone was like "omg Ike is heading straight to S. FL" and then it just missed us and went south through cuba and up the GOM.

[ROCK]

00z GFDL track shows up nice on this site...bends back west toward gulf

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif

yep, and you couple that with the NOGAPS southern solution...a shift in the models will be in order.....got to see what the EURO does.....my guess is the ridge builds in quicker than advertised....

[WeatherEmperor]

Rock makes a good point. I want to see what the Euro does. If you look at the link Rock provided, you see the GFDL puts the system as a 983MB low pressure which should be a moderate Cat 1 hurricane. So in the GFDL's case, its not a weak system but still makes it further west.

FWIW, the latest 00Z UKMET follows the GFS with the recurve scenario after affecting PR and DR.

[lebron23]

00z GFDL track shows up nice on this site...bends back west toward gulf

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_91.gif

yep, and you couple that with the NOGAPS southern solution...a shift in the models will be in order.....got to see what the EURO does.....my guess is the ridge builds in quicker than advertised....

UKM shifted north. UKM always seemed to have the same track as euro with don..

[dwsqos2]

0Z Euro is weaker than 12Z run through hour 72.