ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

48 HRS ago Gonzalo was supposed to be a hurricane by now and Hanna a minimal TS....

[AxaltaRacing24]

Still have to sample the remainder of the everything.. it will likely be upgraded.

I could see them giving it 65-70 mph for now.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 992mb

URNT15 KWBC 250134
NOAA3 0508A HANNA HDOB 25 20200725
012430 2729N 09411W 8416 01519 0014 +175 //// 130071 072 050 012 01
012500 2728N 09412W 8416 01514 0007 +179 //// 133068 069 050 011 01
012530 2726N 09412W 8416 01509 0003 +177 //// 133063 065 048 013 01
012600 2725N 09413W 8401 01520 9996 +181 //// 133060 061 049 019 01
012630 2723N 09414W 8404 01504 9986 +179 //// 133063 064 050 015 01
012700 2722N 09416W 8412 01496 9977 +184 //// 139068 070 051 013 01
012730 2720N 09417W 8414 01491 9970 +187 //// 141058 062 051 008 01
012800 2719N 09419W 8412 01487 9963 +194 //// 137043 046 050 006 01
012830 2718N 09420W 8399 01498 9955 +195 //// 141040 041 049 005 01
012900 2717N 09422W 8424 01469 9951 +198 //// 137034 035 047 003 01
012930 2715N 09423W 8409 01477 9944 +203 +201 133033 034 042 002 00
013000 2714N 09425W 8415 01472 9942 +204 +195 129031 032 042 001 00
013030 2712N 09426W 8414 01468 9937 +209 +187 126029 029 036 001 00
013100 2711N 09428W 8416 01464 9934 +206 +195 123028 029 032 000 00
013130 2709N 09429W 8414 01462 9929 +208 +195 121023 024 026 000 00
013200 2708N 09430W 8415 01458 9923 +213 +193 115018 020 018 000 00
013230 2706N 09431W 8416 01453 9920 +211 +188 099011 014 017 000 03
013300 2704N 09431W 8413 01457 9922 +207 +196 115005 006 009 000 00
013330 2702N 09431W 8416 01455 9923 +206 +198 243003 006 011 000 00
013400 2700N 09432W 8416 01456 9927 +203 //// 265009 010 012 000 05

[CrazyC83]

Based on the latest pass, there is good agreement for a 55 kt intensity.

[gatorcane]

Convection looks to be shrinking to me again on the NW side. Might be some dry air it is taking in, not a lot but enough to keep any RI from happening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

You don't give up, don't you.
RI may not happen but both GFS, HWRF and Euro continue to show strengthening until landfall.

Indeed they do. Like I said before, this storm will probably go down as one of those if it only had 24-48 hours more over water what would have happened.

[GrayLancer18]

Convection looks to be shrinking to me again on the NW side. Might be some dry air it is taking in, not a lot but enough to keep any RI from happening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I'm noticing that too. I don't know how IR imagery works but there are less areas of intense colors around Hanna, as if it's running out of steam.

Again, I don't know IR well, so anyone with more expertise can clarify my assumptions.

[Aric Dunn]

New set.. 58 mph SFMR.

do the blend and that is 64 kts..

its a hurricane. But still more to sample. and that its deepening very quickly now,. by the time they leave it will likely stronger.

[wxman57]

Good evidence of a 50kt TS now. Nothing to signal an upgrade yet. Definitely better-organized. Don't get carried away...

[FLpanhandle91]

51 kts 992mb

[wx98]

SFMR and FL winds support 55 kt, at least in that section of the storm.

[ozonepete]

There she goes!

012230 2736N 09407W 8416 01533 0026 +183 //// 123061 062 044 011 01
012300 2734N 09408W 8416 01530 0022 +184 //// 123060 062 044 010 01
012330 2732N 09409W 8416 01525 0023 +178 //// 123064 066 044 012 01
012400 2731N 09410W 8411 01527 0019 +176 //// 127071 072 045 019 01

and that is not even in the eyewall yet or in the deepest convection..

Getting close to very good symmetry; mid and low-level moisture is increasing on the western side which will let convection bloom there and allow the CDO to become fully circular. Little to stop a rapid ramp-up now.

[CrazyC83]

New set.. 58 mph SFMR.

do the blend and that is 64 kts..

its a hurricane. But still more to sample. and that its deepening very quickly now,. by the time they leave it will likely stronger.

The 72 kt flight level winds support 58 kt at the surface.

[drezee]

This is a serious situation! This has a number of hours offshore and has slowed down per recon.

[supercane4867]

The circulation really is massive.

[jaxfladude]

Is there any good news with track and landfall area as to population wise: little or big if/when Hanna makes landfall as a TS-Hurricane Cat # ? Rains still main threats with some surge or what?

[HurricaneEdouard]

Clearly rapidly intensifying, so the flight level winds might not be mixing down to the surface yet. I'd say a blend of data would support a 992mb, 55 knot storm (FL extrap would indicate 60kt, SFMR would indicate 50). One of the best tropical storms I've seen in the Atlantic basin, though.

[NDG]

Good evidence of a 50kt TS now. Nothing to signal an upgrade yet. Definitely better-organized. Don't get carried away...

But 72 knot flight level winds is more like ~60 knots at the surface, at least eventually.

[Highteeld]

Winds aren't mixing down ideally, not sure why. Maybe due to the eyewall being incomplete

[Hammy]

Is there any good news with track and landfall area as to population wise: little or big if/when Hanna makes landfall as a TS-Hurricane Cat # ? Rains still main threats with some surge or what?

HRRR and NAM appear to point towards Padre Island for landfall, which is one of the most sparsely populated areas on the entire US coast. Same place Bret hit in 1999.

[Aric Dunn]

having the oil rig with sustained 60mph at the edge of the convection gusting to 70mph.. the reduction there is small

70mph is is a good estimate based off recon and surface obs..


but we still have a lot more data from recon. .


AND IT OBVIOUSLY STILL DEEPENING quickly..


no reason for the deepening to stop .. So next couple passes will likely confirm the upgrade.