ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[Do_For_Love]

Yes but that doesn't mean it still can't strengthen. Forward speed is less of a problem than sharar and dry air.

Not saying it won't strengthen, I think it will. Just saying hopefully not a Cat 5 lol and hopefully some differences to prevent that

[eastcoastFL]

This has been in almost every discussion this year... I wonder if normal is changing


The overall confidence in both the track and
intensity forecasts remain lower than normal.

[eastcoastFL]

FWIW, looks like G-IV won't depart Lakeland until Saturday.

Code: Select all

NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 13 FOR
          23/0000Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 22/1730Z.

Lack of G-IV missions this season is confusing me.

Mindboggling, how can you expect models to reflect accurate conditions when there is such a lack of sampling? Can anyone explain why G-IV missions are so sparse? Covid or funding?

I’d love to hear the answer to this. It doesn’t make sense operationally to neglect what seems so important. Funding seems more likely since it’s not cheap to fly these missions.

[TheStormExpert]

Thought I’d put this here since it concerns TD #13 as well.

 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296489863236255744




 https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296495124197801985

[eastcoastFL]

Nhc still not mentioning the euro. They must be throwing it out so far

[stormwatcher95]

Not saying it won't strengthen, I think it will. Just saying hopefully not a Cat 5 lol and hopefully some differences to prevent that

I hope not as well. Just dont buy the "poofers". Its in a prime location, generally favorable conditions ahead at the moment, and its just that time of the year where these things seem to find a way. Itd be great if it would fall apart. I just dont see it happening though

[eastcoastFL]

Thought I’d put this here since it concerns TD #13 as well.

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296489863236255744

https://twitter.com/toddkimberlain/status/1296495124197801985

Interesting theory, still so many “ifs” with both systems.

[eastcoastFL]

Icon 18z is north of the islands 60hrs out. Not that I wish for the islands to get hit but it would be nice if they could absorb this as a TD and prevent a hurricane.

[cp79]

If we’re talking a style contest, TD14 is kicking TD13s butt right now. 14 looks scary to me. That looks like it’s blowing up down there. 13 is a tiny little thing that looks sickly right now.

[Kazmit]

If we’re talking a style contest, TD14 is kicking TD13s butt right now. 14 looks scary to me. That looks like it’s blowing up down there. 13 is a tiny little thing that looks sickly right now.

Recon found nothing impressive about 14, despite its appearance.

[eastcoastFL]

Great shot of both systems

[eastcoastFL]

Icon creeps right through the straights and heads for the gulf

[gatorcane]

I would like to see some more discussion from the NHC on the inhibiting factors for organization. The GFS and Euro are not developing but yet when you read the NHC discussion, no mention of inhibiting factors or why the huge difference between the hurricane models and the GFS and Euro. Yet there is something because no way those two models miss this bad timeframe we are talking.

Normally discussions would include something along the lines of “...it is still uncertain how strong TD13 will be by the time it reaches the Bahamas” or “...it is unclear how favorable the environment will be for TD13”

Yes I am looking for something like this which I just wrote up:

The intensity guidance is highly uncertain. Some dry air as well as mid-level shear may hinder development over the next day or two as the depression moves through an area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer to the SW of an upper-level trough. By days 3 and 4, an upper-level anticyclone over the Bahamas and stretching north of the Greater Antilles should provide a favorable upper-level environment for strengthening as shown by the HWRF and HMON models as well as the CMC, NAVGEM, and UKMET models. In fact the HWRF and HMON bring the depression to major hurricane status by days 4 and 5. On the other hand, the GFS, and ECMWF models, despite a favorable upper environment, keep the system as a broad low through days 5 possibly because of the aformentioned mid-level shear weakening the structure to allow some dry air in the vicinity of the Bahamas to prevent any significant strengthening. For the now the intensity is a continuation from the previous advisory and not adjusted upward out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF.

I see we didn’t get some more details on the models from the NHC still. Bold is what I wrote earlier which I am looking for

[cp79]

Great shot of both systems

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/20202332100_GOES16-ABI-car-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg

Damn 14 looks like Gilbert in terms of size. Wowzers.
13 looks like a puny wave lol.

[wxman57]

Recon is flying in circles trying to find a circulation in Thirteen, too. This is getting entertaining. Scatterometer data indicated a wave this morning, now let's see if recon can find anything. Time for dinner. Missed breakfast and lunch. Started at 5am.

[toad strangler]

If we’re talking a style contest, TD14 is kicking TD13s butt right now. 14 looks scary to me. That looks like it’s blowing up down there. 13 is a tiny little thing that looks sickly right now.

Recon found nothing impressive about 14, despite its appearance.

Some of history's classic heavyweights came from long track sickly looking waves. This forum is too much some time
Bottom line is watch it. Tis The Season.

[SFLcane]

Low level convergence in TD Thirteen seems to be improving a bit this afternoon. Could be a sign that the circulation will soon become better defined.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 00039?s=21

[Hurricaneman]

Recon is flying in circles trying to find a circulation in Thirteen, too. This is getting entertaining. Scatterometer data indicated a wave this morning, now let's see if recon can find anything. Time for dinner. Missed breakfast and lunch. Started at 5am.

Based on recon this isn’t a tropical cyclone, but it wouldn’t take much for it to become one again and the next 18 to 24 hrs are crucial to whether it becomes something bad or is just some passing squalls

What I’m looking for is a new low to form under the MLC because after 18hrs this will probably come together and there is a possibility in the Bahamas of this blowing up with the conditions forecast but here’s the thing that could make the Euro output right, and that’s if 14 blows up

[Ubuntwo]

Recon is flying in circles trying to find a circulation in Thirteen, too. This is getting entertaining. Scatterometer data indicated a wave this morning, now let's see if recon can find anything. Time for dinner. Missed breakfast and lunch. Started at 5am.

Based on recon this isn’t a tropical cyclone, but it wouldn’t take much for it to become one again and the next 18 to 24 hrs are crucial to whether it becomes something bad or is just some passing squalls

What I’m looking for is a new low to form under the MLC because after 18hrs this will probably come together and there is a possibility in the Bahamas of this blowing up with the conditions forecast but here’s the thing that could make the Euro output right, and that’s if 14 blows up

Recon is well outside the convection and 'center', a few degrees off the 5PM position. Are you talking about the right system?