ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 21, 2008

12.22 ft.

About 2 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

THANKS FAY!

[tolakram]

Looks can be deceiving

[cpdaman]

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 21, 2008

12.22 ft.

About 2 ft. below historical average for this time of year.

THANKS FAY!

now just don't drain it before hurricane season and we should be fine

[dixiebreeze]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

We do have NWS flood watches and warnings from the Suwannee River S to Tarpon Springs. Tides will be worse from Cedar Key south to Crystal River/Homosassa

[derek]

fay is moving north a bit. I've been inside the rain bands (I hesitate to call it an eye, but whatever works) all night long (in new smyrna beach), and within the last half hour or so we're now getting rain from the southern wall. No idea if she's really moving west yet, but she's definately moving north, if slowly.

[hazmat]

No comments on the track showing Faye not making back to the Gulf coast till Saturday? She'll be crawling along dragging all the moisture to her east with her.
Any future precep estimates?

[hiflyer]

Using JAX radar looks like about 10nm in about 100 mins movement 330 degrees.

[ronjon]

I'm really surprised that the NHC didn't post tropical storm warnings for the FL big bend and west coast from Tampa Bay north. I'm actually shocked. With the latest track adjusted slightly south, it seems pretty clear that Fay would still be a weak tropical storm - even the NHC says that if she stays over GOM she will not weaken. Why not be safe and hoist the TS warning? It appears that Fay's circulation is going to take a long time to wind down - and once she gets half way across, she be tapping into the heat of the NE GOM.

highest winds on NE side, and after she weakens i don't think there is a need for TS warning on her west side. At the rate she's moving she will be lucky to be a weak TS should she cross w-e and the strongest winds would be on her right side anyhow.

also they have time to wait a while, why issue them now if ever?

Well, look at it this way, the NHC has a tropical storm forecast for their 24 hr position just 20 miles from the gulf coast. With a TS wind field of what 140 miles now, does that make sense to you? Besides, I can bet that us residents on the south side of Fay on the gulf coast will be experiencing those west winds which will push storm tides above normal.

[O Town]

tronbunny:

I feel your frustration!!!!!
Today is the day of all days the kids should be home, winds and rain especially the ladder are far worse today than they were on Tuesday, we are having to steady be in the rain today moving our sump pump around our backyard to pump out alot of standing water, *sigh*. I still think things will be okay for the kids but it just doesn't make since they jumped the gun on Tuesday but pretty much ignore the forecast for today???? Like I said I am sure it will be okay for them, but I am just trying to make sense of what they are thinking.......

[wxman57]

I just checked the HRD web site (Hurricane Research Division) and they just posted wind field analysis maps valid 12Z this morning showing Fay's analyzed wind field. Great stuff! You can see the area of 60 mph winds ESE of the center and sub-TS winds all along the coast. All significant wind remains offshore east of the center.

Here's the main HRD web site (for 2008 storms)
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... /wind.html

and here's the image of Fay's wind field valid 12Z today:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

[ColdFusion]

Looks like the movement is at a pretty decent rate to me. Yes I'm using radar, but I still think its marching west now.

[ronjon]

11AM

ST AUGUSTINE CLOUDY 75 75 100 NE35G47 29.63F
SANFORD RAIN 77 73 87 W28G39 29.60S FOG
ORLANDO EXEC LGT RAIN 77 73 88 W24G35 29.68S FOG
ORLANDO INTL LGT RAIN 77 73 87 W22G30 29.71R

[deltadog03]

Steering flow!!

[HurricaneQueen]

Just when I thought we had seen the last of Fay in SW FL, we have had feeder bands coming in most of the morning with more to come, bringing moderate rainfall with rumbling thunder and light breezes. Of course, we can afford more moisture but I really feel for our neighbors to our Northeast.

Be safe everyone!

Lynn

[TSmith274]

Looks can be deceiving

Cryptic posts can be confusing.

Hah I was thinking the same thing

[DESTRUCTION5]

We got landfall yet officially?

[fci]

tronbunny:

I feel your frustration!!!!!
Today is the day of all days the kids should be home, winds and rain especially the ladder are far worse today than they were on Tuesday, we are having to steady be in the rain today moving our sump pump around our backyard to pump out alot of standing water, *sigh*. I still think things will be okay for the kids but it just doesn't make since they jumped the gun on Tuesday but pretty much ignore the forecast for today???? Like I said I am sure it will be okay for them, but I am just trying to make sense of what they are thinking.......

Well, I was the vocal one who opposed closing Palm Beach County schools on Tuesday and laughed at Dade and Broward for being closed on Monday.

However, I changed my mind when at 6:30 AM Tuesday when I would be sitting at the bus stop with my kids; the rain was sideways and winds were gusting to 40-50 MPH. I was wrong to question closing for a Tropical Storm.

What if a gust pushes a bus off the road and kids get hurt?
What if the bus has to go through a flooded road and goes into a ditch??

School officials would say they were "sorry" and parents would not forgive themselves for sending their kids into harms way.

The school officials you are both referring to "dropped the ball".

[pojo]

We got landfall yet officially?

nope.

[deltadog03]

still offshore...

[tolakram]

Hah I was thinking the same thing

Sorry. That visual appears to show a large hurricane with a clear eye. At least to me it does.