Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[Mecklenburg]

grrrr.... the SAL is such a nuisance... why do this waves form at such higher latitudes than before?.. this season is getting to be boring...

[KWT]

Probably becuase they are forming so well overland they are gaining latitude before they even leave land and so come off at higher latitudes...reminds me of 1989 actually in that reagrds at least for the first CV systems.

[Mecklenburg]

hmmm... in the long-range models thread.... a more rigorous storm may form behind this invest later this week... if this thing develops into Edouard, will this interrupt the development of the next system?

[caribepr]

Recurve might turn out to be my own personal favorite weather word this season...

[KWT]

This is probably one of the most obvious recurvers we will see all season given its already heading WNW/NW and its still east of the CV islands. Thats of course if the NHC upgrade it of course!

[HURAKAN]

AL, 98, 2008073006, , BEST, 0, 146N, 189W, 20, 1007, DB,

The 2008073000 pressure was increased to 1008 from 1006 mb.

[Gustywind]

grrrr.... the SAL is such a nuisance... why do this waves form at such higher latitudes than before?.. this season is getting to be boring...

Are you falling in a Warner Bros with the big lady???... we're only in July with this strong activity stay calm we 're far away from the end, keep you energy on August and especially September. To sump up, take it easy and do not let your guard down , tropics are always versalite things can turn quickly....We should continue to see what happens with this in spite of assuming that it's a fish or not it's only an early stage of developpement as TD status given the sat pic appearence and the latest TWO and TWD. For my part if this has not pass the 20°N and the 60W it's always a thread for the Lesser Antilles!

[wxman57]

grrrr.... the SAL is such a nuisance... why do this waves form at such higher latitudes than before?.. this season is getting to be boring...

Read Dr. Klotzbach's outlook with respect to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on pages 16-17 of his April forecast:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2008.pdf

The predictors indicate a weaker-than-normal Bermuda high this year. This could allow for may systems to recurve east of the Caribbean.

[Gustywind]

Recurve might turn out to be my own personal favorite weather word this season...

Me too, with some rains to erase the drought sometimes, that's ok

[wxman57]

06Z model data is out, but the LLC is well northwest of that position now. Clearly west of 20W and north of 15N.

[HURAKAN]

How much organized has it to be to be declared a TD?

LLC. check
Organized convection. check

[bvigal]

Read Dr. Klotzbach's outlook with respect to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) on pages 16-17 of his April forecast:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... pr2008.pdf

The predictors indicate a weaker-than-normal Bermuda high this year. This could allow for may systems to recurve east of the Caribbean.

Fine with me!

Good chance it may be upgraded then dissipate in a day or two. Once past the Cape Verde Islands it's about 99.99999% chance a fish storm.

Hey you guys, listen to wxman57, he's pointing out some good common sense factors. Without a strong ridge, how can anything already AT LEAST 14.6N, and east of Cape Verdes, cross the entire Atlantic ocean? Any climatology for this?

[HURAKAN]

Only a strong ridge of high pressure extending between the Bermuda and Azores high would do that.

[KWT]

There's been a few in the past that far north that have made it but to be honest its not going to happen with 98L. Interesting to hear about the Bermuda high does seem to be fairly weak this year thus far though of course systems can slip under the net, look at Dolly for an example of that...

[bvigal]

There's been a few in the past that far north that have made it but to be honest its not going to happen with 98L. Interesting to hear about the Bermuda high does seem to be fairly weak this year thus far though of course systems can slip under the net, look at Dolly for an example of that...

Yes, but those few... wasn't there a strong ridge that steered them west?

[HURAKAN]

AL, 98, 2008073012, , BEST, 0, 154N, 199W, 25, 1008, DB,

[Chacor]

SHIPS shear forecast is not favourable in the long-term.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)        8    11    14    15    16    18    15    23    26    27    24    20    14

[KWT]

bvigal, yep indeed and in this case there obviously isn't that factor in play, indeed even if it did bend back west it would still recurve probably around 50-60W...but from the looks of things this will probably head NW for a little while yet into the colder waters.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

SHIPS shear forecast is not favourable in the long-term.

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)        8    11    14    15    16    18    15    23    26    27    24    20    14

I don't doubt it but the other day it was showing 97L in almost no shear when the invest was being decapitated.