ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean

Code: Select all

Time (GMT)  WSPD         WDIR
1423       24.7 kts       E ( 98 deg true )

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[Driftin]

im worried that there hasnt been much talk in the news here in PR about this system. Looks like we at least will get a TS with lots or rain. That could be very dangerous for the island.

[cycloneye]

im worried that there hasnt been much talk in the news here in PR about this system. Looks like we at least will get a TS with lots or rain. That could be very dangerous for the island.

You will for sure see from this afternoon much more coverage about this dangerous situation starting with Met Ada Monzon on channel 11 univision.

[caribepr]

Yes Luis, I had some emails from the states saying they weren't hearing anything, but I agree, they will soon enough. I'm sure TWC will give us at least...7 seconds?

[msbee]

Luis, the only good news I can see at the moment for Puerto Rico is that if the storm continues to have the area of convection mainly to the east of the center, then there is the possibility that the center passes to the east of Puerto Rico and most of the convection will remain to the east of the island. We will see what happens but it doesn't look good for the NE Caribbean.

Yes,that is the only silver line for us.However,my worrie is how much rainfall Puerto Rico will get even well before the center of TD 15/Omar moves thru or close.Already some rivers are out or close to being out of their banks and still many families haved not recuperated from that massive flood event of last month.

That is the problem. the ground is saturated and really most of us, but especially PR... can not take much more heavy rainfall without having serious flooding.
this is one to watch out for..even us, although the models seem to be highlighting PR.

[Ed Mahmoud]

im worried that there hasnt been much talk in the news here in PR about this system. Looks like we at least will get a TS with lots or rain. That could be very dangerous for the island.

You will for sure see from this afternoon much more coverage about this dangerous situation starting with Met Ada Monzon on channel 11 univision.

National Honor Society in High School, math degree in Puerto Rico, met degree from Florida State, and experience with the NWS.


Except for KHOU-TV 11 in Houston, none of our TV stations have qualified mets like that.


Edit to add- I'll admit, I Googled Sra. Monzon because I wondered if she was somehow similar to other Univision "mets" like Jackie Guerrido. I'm a guy. I'm sorry.

[Ola]

National Honor Society in High School, math degree in Puerto Rico, met degree from Florida State, and experience with the NWS.


Except for KHOU-TV 11 in Houston, none of our TV stations have qualified mets like that.


Edit to add- I'll admit, I Googled Sra. Monzon because I wondered if she was somehow similar to other Univision "mets" like Jackie Guerrido. I'm a guy. I'm sorry.

LOL @ Jackie Guerrido!!!

none of that. monzon is da real deal

[HURAKAN]

Jackie Guerrido should only be used when the weather is not a problem and it gets boring.

Back to TD 15:

[Ola]

Jackie Guerrido should only be used when the weather is not a problem and it gets boring.

Back to TD 15:

Exaclty what Don Omar says.

[HURAKAN]

13/1745 UTC 14.7N 70.1W T1.5/2.0 15L

Dvorak less impressed.

[wxman57]

The initial LLC appears to be dissipating. Could reform farther east, but it doesn't appear to qualify for TD status at this time.

The system south of Nana looks to be the most impressive in the Atlantic - the only one NOT an invest.

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC BEST TRACK mantains it as TD.

AL, 15, 2008101318, , BEST, 0, 147N, 699W, 30, 1005, TD

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection is exploding just east of the center of circulation...it will be very interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find out...as the system appears to be getting stronger as time passes by...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Ad Novoxium]

Side note: if this becomes Omar, it would be the first time in Atlantic history that that name was used.

[MiamiensisWx]

Ultimately, the track of the system will hinge on its forward speed and intensity. If the system is shallower and moves more rapidly, it will likely be farther north and west prior to turning northeast. That outcome could likely result in a direct impact on southern Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if the depression moves more lethargically over the next 24-48 hours (or deepens quicker than anticipated), it is probable that the NE turn will be sharper and more pronounced as the 250-500 mb trough amplifies northwest of the tropical cyclone. That outcome seems more probable at this time, implying that the system could skirt/scrape the southern coast of Puerto Rico or remain slightly offshore. The actual track could be east of the NHC forecast positions in the medium/long term if this scenario unfolds, although residents should focus on the cone. Overall, this is not a good scenario for the Leeward Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, since decent lift, orographic lifting, and forced ascent will result in heavy precipitation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Heavy convection refiring near center again....this storm should be the O storm tonight.
It's hard to believe that it is marginally possible we may reach the R storm by Mid October.


Considering the climo of the past couple of years that could land us near the T storm at the end of the season...just two away from clearing the list.

Amazing season.

[CrazyC83]

Side note: if this becomes Omar, it would be the first time in Atlantic history that that name was used.

Although it does have a bad history - there was a really bad Typhoon Omar in 1992...

[msbee]

Ultimately, the track of the system will hinge on its forward speed and intensity. If the system is shallower and moves more rapidly, it will likely be farther north and west prior to turning northeast. That outcome could likely result in a direct impact on southern Puerto Rico. On the other hand, if the depression moves more lethargically over the next 24-48 hours (or deepens quicker than anticipated), it is probable that the NE turn will be sharper and more pronounced as the 250-500 mb trough amplifies northwest of the tropical cyclone. That outcome seems more probable at this time, implying that the system could skirt/scrape the southern coast of Puerto Rico or remain slightly offshore. The actual track could be east of the NHC forecast positions in the medium/long term if this scenario unfolds, although residents should focus on the cone. Overall, this is not a good scenario for the Leeward Islands and the eastern half of Puerto Rico, since decent lift, orographic lifting, and forced ascent will result in heavy precipitation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

what's the time line on when we would have a better guess on the tracck?

[cycloneye]

Barbara,we are under a Tropical Storm Watch.

[msbee]

PR is under a tropical storm watch? oh lord!
I didn't know that. I just got home and am trying to catch up
I see we are in the cone too. wonder if our government will issue a watch tomorrow.

Barbara