ATL: PALOMA - Models

[Nimbus]

All the models seem to be in better agreement on the upper air pattern but vary on track due to storm speed. The slowdown in forward speed noted this morning should change the models some.

[gatorcane]

The 00UTC Euro brings a weakened and sheared Paloma (probably a naked swirl) to South Florida in 144 hours:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8110700!!/

[Evil Jeremy]

From Today - 12Z Nov. 7th:

wxman, what do you make of the HWRF, which tries to loop Paloma, the UKMET which makes no sense right now, the GFS (AVNI) that stops the recurve at the end, and the other models that turn the storm south at the end of the run?

[DESTRUCTION5]

FWIW the HWRF has joind the Bahama stallers and loops her back west...

[Blown Away]

Many of us are fully aware if Paloma stalls and moves back towards the CONUS she will be weak system. However, I'm intrigued how much confidence the NHC is putting in the GFDL & HWRF while other decent models are turning Paloma back to the W.

[gatorcane]

Many of us are fully aware if Paloma stalls and moves back towards the CONUS she will be weak system. However, I'm intrigued how much confidence the NHC is putting in the GFDL & HWRF while other decent models are turning Paloma back to the W.

The GFDL is "NHC's baby" is it not, I'm wondering if that is part of the reason? If paloma manages to loop back west, it looks like the European models have proven again that they can be a bit better at predicting long-term syntopics than some of the American models depending upon the storm, but we still don't know yet if Paloma will move back west or not. Interesting to note the GFDL was the only model to nail Ike's more WSW path into Cuba several days in advance while Ike was in the middle of the Central Atlantic......when models like the UKMET/Euro kept wanting to take it into SE Florida or even recurve Ike east of Florida.

[wxman57]

From Today - 12Z Nov. 7th:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/PalomaModels2.gif

wxman, what do you make of the HWRF, which tries to loop Paloma, the UKMET which makes no sense right now, the GFS (AVNI) that stops the recurve at the end, and the other models that turn the storm south at the end of the run?

I think the HWRF just doesn't know what to do with Paloma after it's ripped apart by the strong wind shear. Note that when it slows it down it weakens to a TD or remnant low (or dissipates). Same with the other models. They don't know how to handle the interaction of Paloma with the front/jet stream. I think it'll be ripped apart after crossing Cuba.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12Z GFDL has joined the Bahama stallers. Actually, the latest run loops Paloma back westward in the Bahamas:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_17.gif

[gatorcane]

From Today - 12Z Nov. 7th:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/PalomaModels2.gif

wxman, what do you make of the HWRF, which tries to loop Paloma, the UKMET which makes no sense right now, the GFS (AVNI) that stops the recurve at the end, and the other models that turn the storm south at the end of the run?

I think the HWRF just doesn't know what to do with Paloma after it's ripped apart by the strong wind shear. Note that when it slows it down it weakens to a TD or remnant low (or dissipates). Same with the other models. They don't know how to handle the interaction of Paloma with the front/jet stream. I think it'll be ripped apart after crossing Cuba.

Although models are trending towards a turn back to the West, because Paloma should be sheared and likely a remnant low, I don't think the NHC is going to show a loop back west in any forecast -- unless somehow the 80K shear lets up down the pike, which no model is showing. The NHC will likely just dissipate Paloma somewhere in the Bahamas or just east of the Bahamas instead.

[gatorcane]

The CMC 12Z brings remnant Paloma into the SE GOM then SW Florida.

The 12 UKM loses Paloma south of Cuba -- that may be a clue what is about ready to happen to Paloma once the shear kicks in as the UKMET is pretty good at handling cyclogenesis.

Animate it here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

It's interesting to note what the CMC shear forecast is in the long-range. It does decrease the shear across the SE GOM and Florida/Bahamas down the pike allowing a window for something to remain in tact, and is probalby why it keeps Paloma in tact in the SE GOM with a system, albeit much weaker than it is now, approaching SW Florida.

We are looking at 138 hours here:


The UKMET, a good model for cyclogenesis, predicts Paloma will be doomed as soon as it moves north of 20N but down the stretch it lowers the shear above 20N which could conceivably allowing something to remain in tact:

We are looking at 144 hours here:


and look at this, the GFS reduces shear across Florida, the GOM and the Bahamas drastically by 108 hours (that's Tues of next week) but predicts Paloma will be gone by then anyway so doesn't develop it in the long-range

[Blown Away]

Paloma sticks her tongue out at those who say SFL is off the hook.

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

Latest ECMWF moves a remnant Paloma from just north of Eastern Cuba through the Florida Straits all the way to the Western GOM...with landfall around Houston, Texas but as a WEAK and SHEARED system. It's pretty clear a monster low-level ridge is going to be building in behind this trough.

crazy.

[HURAKAN]

321
WHXX01 KWBC 071837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC FRI NOV 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE PALOMA (AL172008) 20081107 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
081107 1800 081108 0600 081108 1800 081109 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.4N 81.4W 19.5N 81.3W 20.2N 80.5W 20.1N 79.5W
BAMD 18.4N 81.4W 20.1N 80.6W 22.0N 78.4W 24.1N 75.1W
BAMM 18.4N 81.4W 19.6N 80.7W 20.7N 79.3W 21.5N 77.1W
LBAR 18.4N 81.4W 19.7N 80.8W 20.9N 79.7W 22.4N 78.0W
SHIP 85KTS 93KTS 93KTS 84KTS
DSHP 85KTS 93KTS 93KTS 84KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
081109 1800 081110 1800 081111 1800 081112 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.1N 78.5W 20.0N 77.5W 19.6N 77.7W 19.1N 79.5W
BAMD 26.3N 70.9W 29.2N 62.2W 29.4N 55.3W 28.6N 50.5W
BAMM 22.3N 74.9W 23.3N 71.3W 23.4N 70.4W 22.6N 71.3W
LBAR 23.9N 75.9W 27.0N 71.1W 30.8N 67.3W 33.7N 59.3W
SHIP 70KTS 41KTS 17KTS 0KTS
DSHP 54KTS 30KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 81.4W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 81.8W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 81.9W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 974MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 90NM

$$
NNNN

[jinftl]

Latest NHC Discussion excerpt (4pm Friday)...interesting turn of events in track forecast....thankfully paloma should be a remnant low as she moves towards florida...who would have thought? well....

IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER
MOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE
ADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
HOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF
PALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH
SHEAR.

[fci]

Paloma sticks her tongue out at those who say SFL is off the hook.

I don't see a "hook" here.
A remnant low?
A naked swirl?
One gust to 16 mph?

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM NNE for about 24 hours then it loops back west, never leaving the Caribbean, trends seem to be west with the models, I'm wondering if Paloma never leaves the Caribbean as several models have suggested (stalls and loops back west just before landfall in Cuba as it gets sheared apart), that may be good news for Cuba and especially the Bahamas.

NAM does not amplify the trough much at this weekend and the cold front dies passing south through Florida:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

CMC has a major shooting the yucatan channel with no land interaction weakening and a hit on Tampa
Bay- but it has the initial motion wrong...LOL....CRAZY CMC is on CRACK.

[gatorcane]

Yep looks like the GFS is on the "not leaving the Caribbean track" now...I think.

Here we are 54 hours from now and it seems to stall it before hitting Cuba...this is the latest 18Z run: