Severe Storm threat- 5th-7th

[snoopj]

Odd that the MD says that a Tornado watch may been needed and they issue a Severe T-Storm Watch instead.

As I notice that those first storms N of Wichita have gone severe.

[KWT]

I don't think it'll be too long before we get a tornado watch for some of those storms snoopj, conditions aloft certainly support the risk.

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
238 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LYON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF DUNLAP...OR 13 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNLAP...
AMERICUS...
BUSHONG...
ALLEN...
ADMIRE...
ESKRIDGE...
HARVEYVILLE...
BURLINGAME...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 161.

[Dave]

[Dave]

Issued 17 mins ago...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
CHASE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 227 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURNS...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF MARION...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COTTONWOOD FALLS...BURNS...CEDAR POINT...ELMDALE...STRONG CITY...
SAFFORDVILLE...WONSEVU AND BAZAAR.

[Dave]

Topeka KS

[srainhoutx]

May need to keep an eye on Central IA as well.

[KWT]

The only real downside of that Dave seems to be the uniformaty of the wind direction throughout pretty much the whole of the Atmosphere, but things do look pretty decent IMO.

[Dave]

Look up around Des Moines IA, lot of chasers and video teams setting there waiting.

[Dave]

Speaking of IA...



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 57
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST OF LAMONI IOWA
TO 45 MILES NORTH OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION
OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 56...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN WARM SECTOR OF LOW NEAR DSM. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO NORTHEAST IA.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Moderate
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
High Moderate

[Dave]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
304 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
NORTHERN OSAGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 300 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BERRYTON...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOPEKA...
TECUMSEH...
CLINTON...
GRANTVILLE...
MERIDEN...
LECOMPTON...
PERRY...
LAWRENCE...
WILLIAMSTOWN...
OZAWKIE...
OSKALOOSA...
MCLOUTH...
WINCHESTER...

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 161 AND 204.

[KWT]

Looks like things will really become interesting in the early eveing hours as the storms head NEwards based on that tornado watch.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 062006Z - 062100Z

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH DMGG HAIL/WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH TIME OF INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

CU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO APPEAR MORE AGITATED IN PORTIONS OF NWRN OK
THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG THE DRY LINE WHERE SURFACE WIND
FIELDS SEEM TO INDICATE FAVORABLE CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAP...POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT THIS
COULD BE OVERCOME...AS CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED
AND/OR MOVED EWD...LEADING TO FAVORABLE SURFACE HEATING.
TEMPERATURES W OF THE DRY LINE ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S...WHICH
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATES LOW 90S WOULD BE
NECESSARY...AND GIVES SOME SUPPORT THAT STORMS COULD INITIATE GIVEN
A FEW MORE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST...NOW ANALYZED IN SERN CO/ERN NM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
LIFT/UPPER DYNAMICS AS IT EJECTS EWD...ESPECIALLY BY/AFTER 00Z.
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY OR REMAINED
SLY...WHICH GIVEN INITIATION WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES
FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES. 12Z HI-RES MODELS AND 12Z NAM APPEAR TO FAVOR
NRN OK FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WOULD ALIGN WITH CURRENT CU
FIELD. APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE/RADAR WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP...A
WW WILL BECOME LIKELY.

..HURLBUT.. 04/06/2010


ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...

[Dave]

Looks like things will really become interesting in the early eveing hours as the storms head NEwards based on that tornado watch.

Watch South also.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like things will really become interesting in the early eveing hours as the storms head NEwards based on that tornado watch.

Watch South also.

Wait til tomorrow. Edit to add the area in IA is very near the triple point. Des Moines WFO mentioned things could be in the sweet spot for some powerful tornadoes.

[Dave]

[Dave]

wait till tomorrow? you know Aruba sounds nice this time of year.

[srainhoutx]

Or a trip down to the Keys.

[Dave]

Or a trip down to the Keys.

I'm ready let's go now why wait. I think I could find a couple people around here who'd go with us...or at least 1 besides me.

[Bunkertor]

Barcelona - Arsenal 4-1

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