ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Vortmax1]

500mb Vorticity:

[HURAKAN]

I think Ivanhater has proven his point!!!

A MLC appears to be present.

[WacoWx]

What am I looking for in that vorticity map tha would be conducive/not for development? Blue = conduceive? lil hep...lil hep nau!

[Ivanhater]

Getting some strong winds with 97L

NOAA buoy 41043

Location - 21.0N 65.0W
Time (ADT)- 5:34 pm
WSPD - 32.8 kts (1-minute Wind Speed)
WDIR - ESE ( 119 deg true )

[Normandy]

While it may be an MLC, the feature is actually very close to the radar site so the beam is not looking up as far as you would think. The feature is probably pretty close to the surface IMO. Overnight I think itll organize and probably require recon tom IMO.

[redfish1]

Getting some strong winds with 97L

NOAA buoy 41043

Location - 21.0N 65.0W
Time (ADT)- 5:34 pm
WSPD - 32.8 kts (1-minute Wind Speed)
WDIR - ESE ( 119 deg true )

is it possible to get an upgrade tonight???

[Hugo1989]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


We have a rotation just north of San Juan PR. This system is developing a center.

*Edited by Ivanhater to include disclaimer

[KWT]

Overnight I think itll organize and probably require recon tom IMO.

I do agree with this point, I think providing it doesn't plunge into Hispaniola recon is going to be needed with this system tomorrow. Probably will go upto an orange risk as well I'd think.

[Hugo1989]

Who says this image of the radar?

[cycloneye]

This is a special marine warning issued for the northern coastal waters of Puerto Rico.I highlighted the important part of it.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ710-192345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0033.100719T2146Z-100719T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 PM AST MON JUL 19 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
ATLANTIC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10 NM TO 19.5N...

* UNTIL 745 PM AST

* AT 537 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 37 KNOTS OR GREATER
FROM 47 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN JUAN TO 35 NM NORTH OF CABO SAN
JUAN...MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF
POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL OBJECTS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

[Gustywind]

A nice closeup of the situation in the Leewards, PR, and the BVI.

[Gustywind]

LATEST

[Gustywind]

Plenty of moisture around the Lesser Antilles...

[tailgater]

While it may be an MLC, the feature is actually very close to the radar site so the beam is not looking up as far as you would think. The feature is probably pretty close to the surface IMO. Overnight I think itll organize and probably require recon tom IMO.

This does look to be at the surface or very close to it but, it is fairly small and could go poof very quickly if it doesn't deepen soon it would be steered by the larger wave axis , moving it west then sw and on shore. Just something to watch for.

[chzzdekr81]

Who thinks Code Orange at 8?

[xcool22]

me

[Hugo1989]

Code Orange At 8:00 40% maybe more.

[terrapintransit]

Me too

[chzzdekr81]

I'm thinking they are going to raise the percentage up to 30%.

[Blown Away]

Who thinks Code Orange at 8?

I'm on the "Code Orange" boat and IMO 97L has slowed down quite a bit today. Less than 10 mph movement IMO.