ATL: KARL - Models

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Vortex..Nam prefers the CMC solution out of the Caribbean as the trough induces a weakness.

[Vortex]

The NAM has sure been consistent with this solution for several days..that in itself deserves worth mentioning the NAM...

[gatorcane]

The nam is just not a good model when it comes to the tropics. Looking at 92l now it's even harder to believe it.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's a wait and see...

People should know never to use "blow up," "dangerous," "major soon" when it comes to the tropics, especially this season.

I concur with gator that NAM isn't worthy of much.

[Ivanhater]

Not really concerned about the surface reflection of the NAM, but the Upper level data is similar to the Canadian, UKMET and others.

[Vortex]

For those that aren't aware of this site for modeling you might want to check it out...



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

[boca]

For those that aren't aware of this site for modeling you might want to check it out...



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

Vortex its not letting me display the page

[ericinmia]

Not really concerned about the surface reflection of the NAM, but the Upper level data is similar to the Canadian, UKMET and others.

I'm with you...

Everyone bashes the NAM, but as many Met's have mentioned over the years... the horrible reputation it got 'originally' was from it's days of running the ETA not the WRF. Granted, it's no hurricane model (GFDL, HRWF, etc.) but the bashing gets old. A few years ago they switched the modeling software and name to the WRF-NMM and it greatly improved the model...
Here was one of the press releases:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/change ... 60613.html
http://www.nwas.org/links/nam_wrf.php

I'm just putting this out there, because the NAM is pretty good at looking at upper air data, and general paterns in the SHORT term. But this is really the WRF, not the old ETA that had garnered such a poor reputation. I just wanted to hopefully enlighten a few of the new comers, as it drives me crazy... lol
-Eric F

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z - 48H

[ConvergenceZone]

For those that aren't aware of this site for modeling you might want to check it out...



http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

That link doesn't work Vortex...

[Ivanhater]

GFS once again fails to develop 92L

[PTrackerLA]

Quite a change in modeling from yesterday. Starting to think this one may not go, but we'll have to see what the models show tomorrow.

[Wx_Warrior]

Iv,

How quickly does CMC strengthen?

[Ivanhater]

Takes about 54 hours WW

[South Texas Storms]

do you guys still think this will develop?

[Ivanhater]

Hold the phone

Canadian busts back west into the Gulf

[ROCK]

I do.....you have some mid- to low level circulation down there now...probably take a day or 2 to get going....I dont really think its going to sit there for 2 days though...probably crawl w or wnw before getting its act together....longer it takes the longer the trof passes it by....

[ROCK]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Hold the phone

Canadian busts back west into the Gulf

http://meteocentre.com/models/glb00_240.gifquote]

is that due to the proximty of IGOR....look at the high sitting on top of IGOR btw...

[ROCK]

having a hard time believing it takes 10 days for this trek into the GOM.....that would be like watching paint dry...

[Vortex]

ivan, I sure didn't expect that on the long range....how far north it gets during the next 2-3 days will have huge ramifications down the line....every indication is that it will turn back w/wnw....The question is how far north will it get....