ATL: LISA - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

#121 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:29 am

Looks like any sheared storm we have had

#122 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:42 am

Latest ... strong vorticity

#123 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 11:44 am

microwave

Website · #124 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:54 pm

No Change. :?:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND HAS
ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON JULIA...WHICH LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#125 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 12:55 pm

looks like a copy and paste from the previous outlook

#126 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:15 pm

Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I guess they're expecting the LLC to become even more organized

#127 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:24 pm

Pretty weakly worded for 80%...

#128 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Pretty weakly worded for 80%...

I agree. "Some additional development." With 80% you would think it would say that development is likely later today or tomorrow.

#129 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I guess they're expecting the LLC to become even more organized

Looks like overshooting tops really picked up quickly in the last few frames of that loop.

Also see it on the image here:

#130 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I guess they're expecting the LLC to become even more organized

Looks like overshooting tops really picked up quickly in the last few frames of that loop.

Also see it on the image here:

Weatherfreak000 · #131 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:43 pm

MIMIC suggests this area has done nothing but to continue to organize for the past 6 hours at least.

#132 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:45 pm

Looks like no upgrade at 5 PM but you never know what will happen in a couple of hours.

AL, 94, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 320W, 25, 1008, DB

#133 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:52 pm

Latest

#134 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:04 pm

appears to be becoming better organized ... I think the NHC may wait until the next ASCAT

rog · #135 Postby **rog** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:14 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I guess they're expecting the LLC to become even more organized

To my untrained eye, this looks close to being a minimal TS. upgraded later this evening maybe.

#136 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:27 pm

rog wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Link - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html

I guess they're expecting the LLC to become even more organized

To my untrained eye, this looks close to being a minimal TS. upgraded later this evening maybe.

The 20-knt wind-field north of the LLC is a typical feature of a TD.

superfly · #137 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:39 pm

Not upgraded because the LLC is still poorly defined and looks to have multiple vortices on visible sat.

#138 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:44 pm

superfly wrote:Not upgraded because the LLC is still poorly defined and looks to have multiple vortices on visible sat.

That didn't hold them back from upgrading Igor. Funny how things work.

#139 Postby **GCANE** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:45 pm

UL winds appear to have improved since this morning.

Looks like there is more radial outflow in all directions as opposed to this morning when there was about a 10-knot UL wind blowing SW to NE exposing the LLC.

Vortmax1 · #140 Postby **Vortmax1** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:57 pm

Funny how things work.

Yep Hurakan...depends on who is on duty also.

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