ATL: NICOLE - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

Euro seems to show a slower moving storm compared to the other models with passage in about 36 hours instead of 24, but I don't buy it because it seems to have initialized too far south. Looks like landfall in FL will be around 8 am Wednesday.

[Evil Jeremy]

So overall, the guidance has shifted west for the 12z run. Whereas before the TCVN was showing TD16 moving east of SFL, TCVN now shows landfall in SWFL.

[plasticup]

So overall, the guidance has shifted west for the 12z run. Whereas before the TCVN was showing TD16 moving east of SFL, TCVN now shows landfall in SWFL.

"Landfall" being a somewhat nebulous term, given the system's organization. In that scenario the strongest winds may still remain offshore.

[Blown Away]

So overall, the guidance has shifted west for the 12z run. Whereas before the TCVN was showing TD16 moving east of SFL, TCVN now shows landfall in SWFL.

"Landfall" being a somewhat nebulous term, given the system's organization. In that scenario the strongest winds may still remain offshore.

Little trick I've learned, follow the TCVN consensus track and it will be close to the NHC track. I expect the NHC to shift west at 5pm.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

the further west the models shift it now, the stronger whatever it is could become, as it will have more time over water before impacting FL, and will also traverse the flattest area of Cuba.

[Blown Away]

the further west the models shift it now, the stronger whatever it is could become, as it will have more time over water before impacting FL, and will also traverse the flattest area of Cuba.

I think the most important factor with a west shift is the heavy slug of moisture is on the east side of the circulation will be over SFL. I agree TD16 will be over water longer and could be a decent TS. We will have to see if the NHC reacts to the latest model runs and shifts west.

[Rainband]

the further west the models shift it now, the stronger whatever it is could become, as it will have more time over water before impacting FL, and will also traverse the flattest area of Cuba.

I agree my bones ache. nice to see you by the way

[kevin]

Why are the models shifting westwards?

[artist]

Why are the models shifting westwards?

I believe it is because the front has backed up northwest.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I don't trust this much now that I see the front already retrograding. That is the "saving grace" that had me resting easy on this one. It looks like the ridge is building back slightly, plus the retrograding front points to the storm likely heading further west and north than initially progged yesterday/this morning. Hopefully the left shift in the models is not the beginning of a trend, as this could wind up quickly and become a bit more than many would have expected. Slower would also mean much more rain on already soaked grounds too. It doesnt' take too much wind to down trees whose roots are just in mud.

[ronjon]

Big shift west on the GFS ensemble members too. Little doubt NHC will shift west at 5 pm.

[cjrciadt]

^ hello!!! is all i can say looking at those!

[SunnyThoughts]

I know its the NAM, but sheesh thats alot of rain for the east coast.

[lester]

I know its the NAM, but sheesh thats alot of rain for the east coast.

Wow that's 8"+ if that verifies!!!!!!!!! I'm gonna need a bigger boat LOL

[plasticup]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_060m.gif
I know its the NAM, but sheesh thats alot of rain for the east coast.

This is going to be the storm's legacy. Its winds may not come to much, but that rain...

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z HWRF takes an incredible broad area of low pressure with 40KT winds and shows it making landfall in SFL (all of it) in 24 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFDL, 67KT hurricane making landfall in SFL in 24 hours.

[wzrgirl1]

Evil can you send that link to the GFDL please?

[Evil Jeremy]

Evil can you send that link to the GFDL please?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

Evil can you send that link to the GFDL please?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Get em all here...