WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.6 / 994.2mb/ 57.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.6     3.5     3.5

[HURAKAN]

consensus

[HURAKAN]

intensifying

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Tropical Storm Songda

TS 1102 (Songda)
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 21 May 2011
<Analyses at 21/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E137°30'(137.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E134°40'(134.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E132°55'(132.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°20'(12.3°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Continue to watch the obs our of YAP, nothing more than breezy right now with about 12kt sustained wind, seeing gust up above 30 though,

Also noting they are seeing CB clouds in all quadrants.

METAR PTYA 211856Z 15012G27KT 3SM SHRA BKN014CB OVC110 25/24 A2966 RMK PK WND 15040/32 CB VC ALQDS SLP044 T02510241

[cycloneye]

JTWC now forecasts 115kts in 5 days.

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 9.8N 137.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 137.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.7N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 11.3N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.6N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 12.1N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 12.9N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 17.3N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 136.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
MORE SYMMETRIC, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 211619Z AMSR-E 36H
IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER EVIDENT ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR
VALUES OF 5-10 KNOTS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED LARGELY ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND JGSM
AIDS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH GFS AND JGSM REMAIN OUTLIERS WITH A SHARPER AND
EARLIER TURN POLEWARD, BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER AT THE EXTENDED
TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//

[StormingB81]

wow 130 mph winds in 5 days....looksl ike we will have our first major typhoon of the year..and it isnt even officially typhoon season..wonder if this is a sign of things to come

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 212100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 212100UTC 09.4N 137.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 222100UTC 10.5N 134.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 231800UTC 11.1N 132.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 241800UTC 12.3N 131.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[Extratropical94]

wow 130 mph winds in 5 days....looksl ike we will have our first major typhoon of the year..and it isnt even officially typhoon season..wonder if this is a sign of things to come

Is there a starting date for typhoon season?
I always thought the Western Pacific had no official timespan with boundaries limiting it.

[StormingB81]

well no they can happend all year around but its like normal the main time for them to happen is between june 1 and nov 30

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[HURAKAN]

21/2101 UTC 9.8N 136.9E T3.0/3.0 SONGDA -- West Pacific

45 knots

[cycloneye]

Local statement from GUAM NWS.

PGUM 212236
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (04W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST SUN MAY 22 2011

...NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (04W) MOVING AWAY FROM YAP AND
NGULU ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP AND NGULU ISLANDS IN YAP STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU AND YAP ISLANDS
IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SONGDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
90 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP
125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU
185 MILES WEST OF ULITHI
200 MILES NORTHEAST OF KAYANGEL
250 MILES WEST OF FAIS AND
255 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR.

TROPICAL STORM SONGDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM SONGDA (04W) IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFIES. THE CENTER OF SONGDA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM BOTH
YAP AND NGULU ISLANDS WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR
BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH TODAY.

...YAP AND NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
STAY IN SUITABLE SHELTER AWAY FROM THE SHORE...PROTECT YOURSELF FROM
DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND MAKE SURE
YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND DRINKING WATER AVAILABLE UNTIL WINDS
SUBSIDE. SMALL BOATS AND CRAFT SHOULD BE SECURED AND REMAIN IN PORT.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL ONGOING AT YAP AND NGULU. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED AT
YAP AND WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
AT NGULU UNTIL NOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE DAY AND FALL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS MAY STILL
OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FEET WITH SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 13 FEET ON
EXPOSED SHORELINES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MINOR INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE
FOR EAST AND SOUTH FACING EXPOSURES ON YAP AND SOUTH AND WEST FACING
EXPOSURES ON NGULU.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN FLOODING OF POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHOWERS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

SIMPSON

[cycloneye]

Closeup visible image.

[cycloneye]

Have any of the hurricane chasers (Typhoon Hunter,JTE5O) decided where to go to wait for maybe a big one to cover a landfall?

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 990.2mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.8     3.9     3.9

[JTE50]

Have any of the hurricane chasers (Typhoon Hunter,JTE5O) decided where to go to wait for maybe a big one to cover a landfall?

It's still up in the air at this point. On a side note, 35 years ago today Typhoon Pamela hit Guam and my classmates at JFK High School, well, they didn't graduate. Sustained winds were about 140mph. Andersen AFB, where I grew up was hit especially hard.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00:00 UTC 5 day track from JMA.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good now!

[HurricaneBill]

They should've retired Songda in 2004. It was very destructive in Japan.

2004 was the year when Japan got hit by several typhoons. Hopefully, 2011 won't be the same way.