2013 EPAC Season

[supercane4867]

Hawaii in bullseye again, GFS has been showing some consistency on this

[ninel conde]

Hawaii in bullseye again, GFS has been showing some consistency on this

thats pretty interesting to see it follow on flossies footsteps.

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii in bullseye again, GFS has been showing some consistency on this

thats pretty interesting to see it follow on flossies footsteps.

Flossie was never forecasted to be near Hurricane strength. It was forecasted to be a tropical depression.

[ninel conde]

Hawaii in bullseye again, GFS has been showing some consistency on this

thats pretty interesting to see it follow on flossies footsteps.

Flossie was never forecasted to be near Hurricane strength. It was forecasted to be a tropical depression.

just commenting on the path. i have to think its very unusual to have 2 tropical systems hit hawaii from the due east inthe same season.

[Alyono]

This isn't exactly from the east. More of a SE to NW path

[Yellow Evan]

Iwa of the big Island?



Baja threat for Juliette?

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO FORM WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE WEEK. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Alyono]

18Z just south of Hawaii... but much more intense

[NDG]

So what's up with these storms coming so close to Hawaii this year, I don't ever remember this much tropical action so close to Hawaii, or at least in a long time.

[Kingarabian]

So what's up with these storms coming so close to Hawaii this year, I don't ever remember this much tropical action so close to Hawaii, or at least in a long time.

I guess it's the pattern.

It's either that stubborn High that is forcing everything west.

Or the waters closer to the CPAC are more conducive for development.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS has a stronger Ivo over Hawaii.

06z is rolling right now.

[Yellow Evan]

Dot 59 2.0?

[HurricaneRyan]

What I find weird is that, for all the storms we have had so far, we haven't had ONE major hurricane. Not even a Category 2. I mean, people have said for the past two seasons that when the Atlantic produces duds, the EPAC produces the major storms. So far, they have had twice the number of storms, but only storms that went as far as Category 1 intensity. We have had four tropical storms, but that's not surprising since they formed in June and July when hurricanes are less likely.

[Ntxw]

What I find weird is that, for all the storms we have had so far, we haven't had ONE major hurricane. Not even a Category 2. I mean, people have said for the past two seasons that when the Atlantic produces duds, the EPAC produces the major storms. So far, they have had twice the number of storms, but only storms that went as far as Category 1 intensity. We have had four tropical storms, but that's not surprising since they formed in June and July when hurricanes are less likely.

Yes, all basins are behaving low right now. But to be fair the Atlantic produces far more naked swirls and sheared messes that aren't named than the Pacific which usually when something is shown, it organizes fairly well.

[Kingarabian]

We have 92E.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115380

[Alyono]

The Hawaiian threat is NOT 92E. I am not sure why NHC is giving that a 50 percent chance of development when the models are developing a totally different feature

[Cyclenall]

Dot 59 2.0?

?

What I find weird is that, for all the storms we have had so far, we haven't had ONE major hurricane. Not even a Category 2. I mean, people have said for the past two seasons that when the Atlantic produces duds, the EPAC produces the major storms. So far, they have had twice the number of storms, but only storms that went as far as Category 1 intensity. We have had four tropical storms, but that's not surprising since they formed in June and July when hurricanes are less likely.

This has been the elephant in the room for a while now, I've been fascinated with this for weeks and made a post about it in the "Thoughts on the season" thread. I always have this in mind when in this thread and before reading your post, I knew you're going to bring it up. It is very strange indeed and I'm tracking the last seasons that had this occur up to now and just ahead. We're less than one day away from when the first major hurricane TC formed (Flossie Epac) in 2007 which was the last time both the Atlantic and Epac had no majors up to this point. Once past tomorrow, August 11 is the next date where Flossie actually became a major. If we still have no majors past this point, the next year is 2003 where the Epac had no majors at all that season and August 27, August 30 for when Fabian became a TC, and major respectively in the Atlantic. I'm really hoping this year isn't like 2003 for both basins. If we somehow go beyond September 3 without majors, that might be a modern record as 1981...a famous year for both basins being quiet...had a TC on September 3 (Hurricane Floyd on Sept.7 became one).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The East Pacific has been unusually dry so far this season due to low vertical instability. It, and seemingly the entire northern hemisphere, has inherited the Atlantic's issue. I'm not sure why.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS South of Hawaii again.

[Yellow Evan]

More weak Cat 1's?



Two CPHC AOR systems?



CPHC AOR cane and 1-2 punch for Hawaii? The latter is an extremely dangerous threat and reminds me of Eric/Nigel in 1985.