Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I've been watching that area off the SW Florida coast with the blow up of convection. It could yield something after all. We'll watch over the next day.

[rockyman]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$ Forecaster Pasch

[Nimbus]

High tower blowing up off ft Myers / Port Charlotte area. This is a good sign as we are at the diurnal minimum.

That looks like it might focus the center of circulation further south, NHC must be deciding where to initialize.
If that latest convection burst keeps up overnight this thread could be closed by 11 AM tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

High tower blowing up off ft Myers / Port Charlotte area. This is a good sign as we are at the diurnal minimum.

That looks like it might focus the center of circulation further south, NHC must be deciding where to initialize.
If that latest convection burst keeps up overnight this thread could be closed by 11 AM tomorrow.

Nimbus, you see the potential of the Low forming a bit farther south in the deepest convection off the SW Florida coast? That area has been pulsating convection all day consistently. NHC at the current time has the 1010 mb Low initialized about 50 miles west of Tampa Bay on the surface analysis.

[northjaxpro]

Quick excerpt from the NHC on their 8p.m. TWD regarding the current situation in the GOM:

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF S OF 29N AND EXTENDS W-NW TO INLAND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER W OF TAMPA NEAR 27N83W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N82W TO THE LOW TO 25N85W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N84W. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...

[NCSTORMMAN]

Quick excerpt from the NHC on their 8p.m. TWD regarding the current situation in the GOM:

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVERS THE
EASTERN GULF S OF 29N AND EXTENDS W-NW TO INLAND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND FAR EASTERN TEXAS. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER W OF TAMPA NEAR 27N83W FROM
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N82W TO THE LOW TO 25N85W.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N84W. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...

For us non educated people please? lol (Computer Programmer here but not a weatherman).

[northjaxpro]

The National Hurricane Center does a tropical weather discussion every six hours featuring the synoptic analysis and conditions in the North Atlantic basin. They also do the same for the Eastern Pacific basin as well. I just posted an excerpt NCSTORMMAN from the part of their discussion about the current observations in the Gulf of Mexico, which obviously features our 1010 mb Low west of Tampa currently.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The National Hurricane Center does a tropical weather discussion every six hours featuring the synoptic analysis and conditions in the North Atlantic basin. They also do the same for the Eastern Pacific basin as well. I just posted an excerpt NCSTORMMAN from the part of their discussion about the current observations in the Gulf of Mexico, which obviously features our 1010 mb Low west of Tampa currently.

What I meant was maybe a simpler version of what the NHC said. Is the low getting better organized or were they saying it is nothing much. That sort of thing sorry I didn't clarify.

[NDG]

I just don't see this area of disturbed wx becoming an invest, clearly not organized at all with no model support for development any time soon if at all. The vorticity seen west of SW FL is displaced from the surface trough and broad surface low pressure west of Tampa which is forecasted by the models to move slowly NNE.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the NHC is basically observing for trends. First, they want to see if the convection can sustain itself for a duration of time. Also, shear is still moderate from the north, so they are watching closely to see if and when the shear eases off a bit to have conditions improve for possible development. Also, it is possible that the Low may get pulled under the deepest convection later on if the convection continues to hold together and or if shear relents.

there are several factors involved NCSTORMMAN for this to come together, and it may take a couple of more days for this to evolve. But, one good sign in this early process if one wants tropical development is that the convection off the SW Florida coast so far this evening is holding up. We will see if this continues.

[gatorcane]

00Z low-level vorticity is a little stronger just off the SW coast of Florida underneath the recent convection blowup. Shear is starting to relax a tad just to the north across the EGOM with the strongest down across the FL straits, but still moderate shear is impacting the area.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well, the NHC is basically observing for trends. First, they want to see if the convection can sustain itself for a duration of time. Also, shear is still moderate from the north, so they are watching closely to see if and when the shear eases off a bit to have conditions improve for possible development. Also, it is possible that the Low may get pulled under the deepest convection later on if the convection continues to hold together and or if shear relents.

there are several factors involved NCSTORMMAN for this to come together, and it may take a couple of more days for this to evolve. But, one good sign in this early process if one wants tropical development is that the convection off the SW Florida coast so far this evening is holding up. We will see if this continues.

Thanks and I appreciate the response. I am not very strong in the weather field I just enjoy weather. I may write the code for a model so I am investigating different things. Due diligence research and all. lol. I think the low could form into a storm or not but I do think there is a chance.

[TheStormExpert]

I want to write this off, but since it's in the GoM I guess I'll monitor it a little while longer.

[NCSTORMMAN]

In my untrained opinion it looks like the convection is already dying and I hope it does. Anyone else seeing it? Probably just day time heating?

[Dean4Storms]

The Convection west of Ft. Myers has my attention, it is rotating and moving westward.

[northjaxpro]

You know the drill Storm Expert, never say never in the tropics and definitely not to write off any strong vorticity present in the GOM, especially given those toasty ssts.

BTW, UKMET when I checked earlier this afternoon did show this Low developing to 1008 mb into Apalachee Bay,moving north and inland Big Bend of Florida by this upcoming Friday. UKMET kept it generally weak for the entirety of this week.

[TheStormExpert]

You know the drill Storm Expert, never say never in the tropics and definitely not to write off any strong vorticity present in the GOM, especially given those toasty ssts.

BTW, UKMET when I check earlier this afternoon did show this Low developing to 1008 mb into Apalachee Bay,moving north and inland Big Bend of Florida by this upcoming Friday

Yeah that SE GoM has some of the warmest(if not warmest) SST's of the entire Atlantic Basin!

[Dean4Storms]

This radar loop NDG posted earlier is rather interesting when you speed it up. Watch the area to the west of Ft. Myers.....

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KTBW&prod=bref1&bkgr=gray&endDate=20150726&endTime=-1&duration=4

[blp]

The 850 vorticity is getting stronger but is still broad and needs to continue the trend today and consolidate. 700mb and 500mb are more concentrated. Looking at the GFS it keeps two vorticites and does not consolidate. Need to see how this trend today progresses. I see an improved divergent flow and looks like shear may lessen some tomorrow. Will see... I would have left at least the 10% lemon on this if I was the NHC.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Yeah definitely the convection is going away. Were we all duped....maybe.