2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF and GFS continue to show what looks like a TC heading toward NC/SC from the Bahamas starting at hour 168. I could be wrong but it has been persistent in showing it.

I'd say the GFS is too bullish and nothing more than a messy weak low develops like the Euro shows.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF and GFS continue to show what looks like a TC heading toward NC/SC from the Bahamas starting at hour 168. I could be wrong but it has been persistent in showing it.

I'd say the GFS is too bullish and nothing more than a messy weak low develops like the Euro shows.

Thanks for the input and yeah chances of it being strong like GFS shows is looking less likely though that is not an official forecast. We shall see though. Shear really starts to die off in the long range.

[stormlover2013]

interesting, love hurricane season and tracking. Lets see if they are consistent

[cycloneye]

Weak low east of Florida that moves westnorthwest into Jacksonville. The proverbial words "We shall see"

[gatorcane]

Indeed, still long-range but the Euro is showing something a little interesting, heading WNW at 216 hours under a ridge:

With both GFS and ECMWF hinting at something as well as the CMC, certainly something to watch as we near the start of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season



CMC is further south over South Florida and into the Gulf:



GFS is furthest north into the Carolinas:

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS has a weaker solution compared to it's previous two runs with a track very similar to Ana from last season.

[Hammy]

Given that all three of the models were upgraded recently this will provide a good test for how they handle possible formation in the Atlantic, or alternately how phantom storm-prone they are.

[terstorm1012]

good eye, hammy. it looks like we may have something to watch over the next week.

[gatorcane]

latest GFS and ECMWF runs show an area of disturbed weather developing over the Bahamas next weekend which moves generally WNW over Florida and into the Eastern Gulf with a possible weak surface low forming in the process. 06Z GFS long-range develops what looks like a (sub?)tropical storm in the Gulf out of this where the storm meanders around before finally getting ejected to the NE as it strengthens. I doubt we see anything near as strong as the GFS is showing in the long-range and I expect this solution to be dropped in the next GFS run.

[Dean4Storms]

latest GFS and ECMWF runs show an area of disturbed weather developing over the Bahamas next weekend which moves generally WNW over Florida and into the Eastern Gulf with a possible weak surface low forming in the process. 06Z GFS long-range develops what looks like a (sub?)tropical storm in the Gulf out of this where the storm meanders around before finally getting ejected to the NE as it strengthens. I doubt we see anything near as strong as the GFS is showing in the long-range and I expect this solution to be dropped in the next GFS run.

Saw that this morning as well. I'd say something from the Eastern Gulf to off the FL East Coast is a possibility with the overall pattern and energy getting left behind. You just couldn't expect anything too deep or organized with mostly borderline SST's and OHC very limited. Something to excite the senses though!

[NDG]

When you see the GFS, Euro and CMC showing possible development, regardless of strength the odds are in favor of some sort of disturbance developing by Memorial weekend. Bad timing for the official start of the beach season for the SE US, especially FL.

Edit: looking at the models' ul conditions, they show this will could be a hybrid type system, because it will be interacting with an UL trough. So in another words it will be a sheared mess, if it forms, which is typical for this time of the year.

[northjaxpro]

I would not personally be shocked at all if we see potential hybrid/tropical system for the holiday weekend. It seems since Memorial weekend 2012 when T.S. Beryl made landfall here in Jax we have had a late May system form off the SE U.S. coast primarily.

Good model support currently for something impacting Florida, the SE U.S. Coast or possibly the Gulf Coast region as NDG showed the model runs just above next weekend into the first of June. The tropics model watching has thus begun.

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan with Tropical Tidbits is on board with potential Subtropical or Hybrid development off the SE U.S. Coast or Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
Thats quite an ensemble signal for a subtropical genesis setup. Big ridge to north means watch beneath in long range

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro has lowering pressure along with a low pressure on the East Coast of Florida @ 240hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

The reason the 18z GFS does not develop anything is because it has the main vorticity riding up the spine of Florida as opposed to going east or even west like previous runs.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS STS into the Carolinas in the long-range:

[TheStormExpert]

Takes a very similar track compared to Ana from early last May.

[northjaxpro]

GFS also pushed back the time frame. The trends are now showing that Memorial weekend for now looks decent, but potentially very hot as Northeast Florida would be on the hot, and dry subsident side of the system should it indeed form off the Southeast U.S. coast. Latest GFS run looks more like the early-to middle portions of next week (May 30-June 1) for possible effects from this potential system somewhere along the SE U.S. coast if you believe GFS.

[psyclone]

I just noticed the intermission on the GFS between fantasy freezes and cyclones for Florida is less than 100 days. Pushing back development is a classic sign. hopefully no one's holiday weekend is disrupted.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the GFS and Euro seem to be pushing the timeframe back so it is likely yet another phantom storm.