ATL: TEN - Models

[Blown Away]

Still no HWRF being run for 92L..

06z HWRF keeps 92L a weak TW/TD, but appears to begin to strengthen starting @126 hrs...

[jlauderdal]

Still no HWRF being run for 92L..

http://i.imgur.com/h7ZAHvJ.jpg
06z HWRF keeps 92L a weak TW/TD, but appears to begin to strengthen starting @126 hrs...

no worries, hwrf will go to major at some point

[jlauderdal]

06z...
http://i.imgur.com/PjvJ1tr.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Y1OAjmB.jpg
Slight uptick in intensity compared to previous runs...

minimal land interaction...inflow could be effected as it heads west but after that watch out keys and texas

[Blown Away]

CMC has TS/Cat 1 in Keys then gets stronger in GOM...

[gatorcane]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.0N 61.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.08.2017 108 20.3N 62.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 21.08.2017 120 21.4N 65.2W 1007 38
1200UTC 21.08.2017 132 22.5N 67.9W 1004 41
0000UTC 22.08.2017 144 23.2N 70.2W 1000 44

UKMET saying trouble on the horizon

[SFLcane]

Yea UKMET seems interesting but it hasn't done to well this season thus far. On that last frame it looks to probable recurve. Atleast lets hope.

UKMET, CMC, and HWRF all hint at possibly a more favorable environment near bahamas. But that could change with that shear zone close

[gatorcane]

That would not be a recurve on the UKMET. See 144 hours below 500mb pattern:

[jlauderdal]

That would not be a recurve on the UKMET. See 144 hours below 500mb pattern:

recurve isnt in the cards so we can take that off the table...too much ridging..issue with this system is survival

[SoupBone]

That would not be a recurve on the UKMET. See 144 hours below 500mb pattern:

recurve isnt in the cards so we can take that off the table...too much ridging..issue with this system is survival

Come on man, you should know better than to speak in absolutes. How good have any of the models been so far this season?

[WeatherEmperor]

06z NAVGEM has 92L approaching the northern islands in 6 days as a TD/TS:




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[Bocadude85]

Yea UKMET seems interesting but it hasn't done to well this season thus far. On that last frame it looks to probable recurve. Atleast lets hope.

UKMET, CMC, and HWRF all hint at possibly a more favorable environment near bahamas. But that could change with that shear zone close

The UKMET has been one of the better models this year in my opinion, much better then the GFS and just below the Euro.

[SFLcane]

Yea here is the another look at the NAVGEM ;0) but i think this is not 92L this is future 93L. Looks to have dropped development with 92L.

[Bocadude85]

Yea here is the another look at the NAVGEM ;0) but i think this is not 92L this is future 93L. Looks to have dropped development with 92L.

The 6z NAVGEM runs 92L over the Greater Antilles that's why it doesn't show development.

[WeatherEmperor]

Yea here is the another look at the NAVGEM ;0) but i think this is not 92L this is future 93L. Looks to have dropped development with 92L.

com/sM1S7Ci.gif[/img]

My apologies I was wrong about 92L. Sorry about that.



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[Blown Away]

12z...

[jlauderdal]

Yea here is the another look at the NAVGEM ;0) but i think this is not 92L this is future 93L. Looks to have dropped development with 92L.

The 6z NAVGEM runs 92L over the Greater Antilles that's why it doesn't show development.

interesting the model shreds it

[wxman57]

06z NAVGEM has 92L approaching the northern islands in 6 days as a TD/TS:

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201708 ... 92505d.png
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As a general rule of thumb, you need to add 180 degrees to the NAVGEM predicted direction of movement. If I make a forecast and the NAVGEM ever agrees, then I know my forecast is horribly wrong.

[SFLcane]

Sooo 57 based on guidance this one could be a problem " if " it finds favorable conditions after facing that shear zone. Whats your 2 cents?

[wxman57]

Sooo 57 based on guidance this one could be a problem " if " it finds favorable conditions after facing that shear zone. Whats your 2 cents?

For now, I'm watching 91L more closely, as it could be a NW Caribbean Threat by Monday/Tuesday. I think 92L will track north of the islands. Too soon to tell if it will recurve east of the U.S. Much will depend upon if and when it develops (and how strong it gets). It's that time of year when every wave needs to be closely monitored.

[gatorcane]

SFWMD plot: