ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Highteeld]

ICON just went beast mode!!

Yep. Low end cat 3 heading towards the Keys

[toad strangler]

Obviously attention needs to be paid by the SE US coast ... but historically speaking I would find it difficult to believe that a storm positioned as far south as Dorian currently is would traverse the eastern caribbean and pop out on the other side unscathed.

it will come down to whether if it misses hispaniola or not.

True, slamming directly into it will likely destroy Dorian. But even getting CLOSE to Hispaniola tends to unravel systems. Seen it happen so many times.

That’s why the Greater Antilles are commonly referred to as the CHEESE GRATER. This kind of outcome isn’t newly discovered science.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS again dissipates storm in the E Carribean. I think the key is the model has Dorian pretty weak
entering the carribean. If it is stronger as the HWRF has been showing it may be more resistant
To the shear.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS legacy stronger this run,1002mb near Puerto Rico

[Hurricaneman]

GFS legacy stronger this run,1002mb near Puerto Rico

And over Hispaniola

[Hurricaneman]

GFS again dissipates storm in the E Carribean. I think the key is the model has Dorian pretty weak
entering the carribean. If it is stronger as the HWRF has been showing it may be more resistant
To the shear.

And would bring it more poleward which could be bad for Florida as some of the Euro ensembles show

[Brent]

967 mb

[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 240 957 mb sure hope this is wrong, gfs legacy

[Hurricaneman]

967 mb

https://i.ibb.co/F0FDywG/gfs-legacy-mslp-pcpn-watl-38.png

At 10 days has a major hurricane in the central GOM, not too likely but who knows if it even survives the next 7 days

[blp]

18z GFS Ensembles has more members showing a continuation after Hispaniola than previous runs. Let see if the trend continues on the 00z

[TheProfessor]

It definitely appears that a storm that misses Hispaniola and the islands will have more potential in becoming a stronger storm like what the GFS Legacy and some of the Euro Ensembles have shown. I'm not sure if Levi's video was ever posted, but he was explaining that the storm could slip between two low pressures putting it in an environment where at the very least wouldn't be destructive to the storm.

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF backing way off this run

[AubreyStorm]

HWRF backing way off this run

Link please

[MetroMike]

HWRF backing way off this run

Link please

The 0z is still downloading anyhow.

[AtlanticWind]

HWRF backing way off this run

Link please

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=84

[AtlanticWind]

Starting to strengthen at 84 hrs on Hwrf

[Stormi]

It definitely appears that a storm that misses Hispaniola and the islands will have more potential in becoming a stronger storm like what the GFS Legacy and some of the Euro Ensembles have shown. I'm not sure if Levi's video was ever posted, but he was explaining that the storm could slip between two low pressures putting it in an environment where at the very least wouldn't be destructive to the storm.

It posted, & I was Intrigued

[Stormi]

All that it would need is a slight slow-down & a slight turn to the N/NW...very possible, just not quite likely. Time will tell!

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF is weaker but further north than last run.

[AtlanticWind]

Please NO gaps

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc ... =Animation