ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/h9dL03m.png

Looks like Karen is just about over Grenada, if I'm looking at this ASCAT pass correctly.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/h9dL03m.png

Not bad at all...

[AtlanticWind]

My concern is that the Euro which is a pretty reliable model shows very conducive conditions when the system gets north of P.R. And most models show a pretty stout and expansive ridge over the U.S and west Atlantic.Sure things are unsure at this point , and we won't know exactly how this will play out.
But my concern level is rising and until I see the Euro change I won't completely relax.

[AxaltaRacing24]

My concern is that the Euro which is a pretty reliable model shows very conducive conditions
when the system gets north of P.R.
And most models show a pretty stout and expansive ridge over the U.S and west Atlantic.
Sure things are unsure at this point , and we won't know exactly how this will play out.
But my concern level is rising and until I see the Euro change I won't completely relax.

We are still a long ways out from any sort of possible U.S landfall so that’ll be shifting around. However, the potential turn would occur on Friday, so we only have a 5 day period of model runs before the “big day” will be quickly approaching. By Midweek, we should know if the models are still forecasting this turn, and how strong the ridge would truly be.

[tropicwatch]

My concern is that the Euro which is a pretty reliable model shows very conducive conditions
when the system gets north of P.R.
And most models show a pretty stout and expansive ridge over the U.S and west Atlantic.
Sure things are unsure at this point , and we won't know exactly how this will play out.
But my concern level is rising and until I see the Euro change I won't completely relax.

We are still a long ways out from any sort of possible U.S landfall so that’ll be shifting around. However, the potential turn would occur on Friday, so we only have a 5 day period of model runs before the “big day” will be quickly approaching. By Midweek, we should know if the models are still forecasting this turn, and how strong the ridge would truly be.

A lot of people are nervous about what some of the models have been showing. I've been telling them lets see what pans out the next couple of days. We have had several close to the Caribbean that long term models suggested could turn west towards Florida which never happened.

[wxman57]

Karen a TS? Really? The squalls to its southeast may have briefly produced TS winds, but it looks weaker now.

[CyclonicFury]

Karen a TS? Really? The squalls to its southeast may have briefly produced TS winds, but it looks weaker now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen.JPG

This morning's ASCAT pass from around 13:20Z had a few 35-knot vectors. It may be slightly weaker now, but it will be interesting to see what recon finds.

[toad strangler]

My concern is that the Euro which is a pretty reliable model shows very conducive conditions
when the system gets north of P.R.
And most models show a pretty stout and expansive ridge over the U.S and west Atlantic.
Sure things are unsure at this point , and we won't know exactly how this will play out.
But my concern level is rising and until I see the Euro change I won't completely relax.

We are still a long ways out from any sort of possible U.S landfall so that’ll be shifting around. However, the potential turn would occur on Friday, so we only have a 5 day period of model runs before the “big day” will be quickly approaching. By Midweek, we should know if the models are still forecasting this turn, and how strong the ridge would truly be.

A lot of people are nervous about what some of the models have been showing. I've been telling them lets see what pans out the next couple of days. We have had several close to the Caribbean that long term models suggested could turn west towards Florida which never happened.

No, a Florida HIT never happened. West towards Fl DID happen.

[tropicwatch]

Karen a TS? Really? The squalls to its southeast may have briefly produced TS winds, but it looks weaker now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen.JPG

HH taking off in about 30 minutes, it should tell the tale

[NDG]

Karen a TS? Really? The squalls to its southeast may have briefly produced TS winds, but it looks weaker now.

http://wxman57.com/images/Karen.JPG

Is a lot more defined than we think based on looking at the very little surface reports and satellite loop.

[Emmett_Brown]

Per the 6Z GFS, Karen will be on the SE edge of a 200mb high while in the NE Caribbean. There will be shear, but much of the strongest shear will be to the E of Karen, and the shear over her could help vent the convection on the E side of the storm, possibly enhancing convergence/convection. So, there will be some shear but probably not enough to prevent some slow development before PR, assuming the broad formative circulation holds together. The official NHC forecast of a TS for PR on Tuesday looks very likely IMO.

[Ubuntwo]

NHC saw scatterometer data with a closed circ and 35kt winds and sustained TS winds in Trinidad. If this was out in the open Atlantic they would have waited, sure, but when there is an imminent land threat they tend to jump the gun when there's data to back it.

[wxman57]

My question about Karen's classification was directed more toward it's terrible appearance on satellite. How can a TS maintain itself if the center is moving away from the convection? NHC mentioned that it might not survive in their discussion.

[LarryWx]

I'm going with a 2/3 it won’t hit the CONUS. That still leaves 1/3 chance of a hit, which is too high for comfort.

[GCANE]

There is a little know secondary coriolis force that helps to spin up a TC if it tracks on a straight due-north track.
It is weaker if it deviates from straight north or if it is lower in latitude.
Karen will track due north along 65W from about 17N to 24N.
IMHO that is enough to maintain its CoC; despite lack of convection, moderate shear, and / or PVS interaction.
Once it splits the PVS it could quickly strengthen and shortly after make the turn west.

[Hurricaneman]

There is a little know secondary coriolis force that helps to spin up a TC if it tracks on a straight due-north track.
It is weaker if it deviates from straight north or if it is lower in latitude.
Karen will track due north along 65W from about 17N to 24N.
IMHO that is enough to maintain its CoC; despite lack of convection, moderate shear, and / or PVS interaction.
Once it splits the PVS it could quickly strengthen and shortly after make the turn west.

The thing is that once it turns west does it intensify like the Euro and the NHC or do nothing like the GFS but my bet is on the NHC as it seems they’re discounting the GFS intensity

[GeneratorPower]

There is a little know secondary coriolis force that helps to spin up a TC if it tracks on a straight due-north track.
It is weaker if it deviates from straight north or if it is lower in latitude.
Karen will track due north along 65W from about 17N to 24N.
IMHO that is enough to maintain its CoC; despite lack of convection, moderate shear, and / or PVS interaction.
Once it splits the PVS it could quickly strengthen and shortly after make the turn west.

The thing is that once it turns west does it intensify like the Euro or do nothing like the GFS

Intensity is just so hard to forecast. You gotta admit, intensity is pretty much a now-cast at any lead time. The models frequently get the track mostly correct but intensity is just not as easy.

[sma10]

There is a little know secondary coriolis force that helps to spin up a TC if it tracks on a straight due-north track.
It is weaker if it deviates from straight north or if it is lower in latitude.
Karen will track due north along 65W from about 17N to 24N.
IMHO that is enough to maintain its CoC; despite lack of convection, moderate shear, and / or PVS interaction.
Once it splits the PVS it could quickly strengthen and shortly after make the turn west.

The thing is that once it turns west does it intensify like the Euro or do nothing like the GFS

Intensity is just so hard to forecast. You gotta admit, intensity is pretty much a now-cast at any lead time. The models frequently get the track mostly correct but intensity is just not as easy.

I agree. While intensity plays an equal ultimate role with track, i hardly ever pay attention to it in future runs, because it's so volatile. For example, if Karen does make the left turn as the euro predicts, her strength at the time of the turn is virtually irrelevant. 4 days due west in that area ... the spectrum of possible intensities is enormous

[sma10]

I'm going with a 2/3 it won’t hit the CONUS. That still leaves 1/3 chance of a hit, which is too high for comfort.

A lof of people may interpret your prediction with relief, not understanding how relevant 1/3 of a chance is. Here's perspective: Lebron James career 3 point shooting percentage is ~33%

[wxman57]

Currently, I don't think it's a TS. Barely qualifies as a depression. There is a weak circulation, but convection is sparse and not organized in or near the center. Obs are generally in the 15-25 kt range.