ATL: ELSA - Models

[SFLcane]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Threading the needle.

[AutoPenalti]

Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.

Maybe. 500mb shows it travelling around the periphery of high pressure. No matter how strong it got, it's not going to go through the heart of that. It has to go around. However, GFS continues to pulse the high so a Charley type hook back doesn't look that likely based on what it seems to be indicating is going to happen. You'd expect more of a hit toward the central Panhandle than on the SW Coast. What gives it its eastern component is a shortwave back by Missouri. That's not really the configuration for that directional movement it's showing. Of course landfall interaction can pull it in as well which I'm not discounting. I'm just not sure that GFS is super realistic for a week out. It might be close though.

Here's the 500 at Hour 162 (1 am CDT next Wednesday). You can run the forward from there and see the upper pattern's evolution.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=162

There's still SE Cuba and the Peninsula.

[captainbarbossa19]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Threading the needle.

This run is very close to Jamaica.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro is significantly underestimating the short-term development of 97L and has consistently been playing catch-up. 12z Euro initialization is significantly stronger vs 24 hours ago.

https://i.imgur.com/bbMEIDh.png

So, like the normal Euro since 2020?

Yup. Just like 2020. It'll low-ball this storm until it becomes a hurricane.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Threading the needle.

This run is very close to Jamaica.

For reference

[Blown Away]

12 Euro into Hispaniola... Significant NE shift in the 12z models...

[jlauderdal]

HWRF again very strong with a MH.

https://i.imgur.com/5FjKMt8.png

Be really careful with the HWRF and intensity...this model is biased big time towards deepening systems too much.

[Steve]

Something to think about as well, the stronger this becomes, the more likely this could pull north and either graze the islands or completely disrupt its core as it landfalls in Hispanola.

Maybe. 500mb shows it travelling around the periphery of high pressure. No matter how strong it got, it's not going to go through the heart of that. It has to go around. However, GFS continues to pulse the high so a Charley type hook back doesn't look that likely based on what it seems to be indicating is going to happen. You'd expect more of a hit toward the central Panhandle than on the SW Coast. What gives it its eastern component is a shortwave back by Missouri. That's not really the configuration for that directional movement it's showing. Of course landfall interaction can pull it in as well which I'm not discounting. I'm just not sure that GFS is super realistic for a week out. It might be close though.

Here's the 500 at Hour 162 (1 am CDT next Wednesday). You can run the forward from there and see the upper pattern's evolution.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=162

There's still SE Cuba and the Peninsula.

Of course. Cuba or any of the other GA's can have from minimal to severe effects on a circulation. We can't predict those yet. Navgem model is similar to the GFS with a SW FL hit.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://i.imgur.com/uUH5bmL.gif
12 Euro into Hispaniola... Significant NE shift in the 12z models...

I feel like models often want to make storms crash into Hispaniola so they don't have to deal with the storm anymore. Pure laziness if you ask me. Hahaha!

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/uUH5bmL.gif
12 Euro into Hispaniola... Significant NE shift in the 12z models...

The gfs and euro have really struggled the last few years with the ridges, models are likely overdoing the intensity too, I would expect this system will be to the left of the latest euro at day 5

[aspen]

This is the strongest HWRF run so far, as 97L/Elsa is able to thread the gap between Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Looks like it could finish the run as a 950s Cat 3.

Such a track between the islands is unlikely, mainly due to how hard it is to get a track that perfect, and how the models don’t have a defined center to latch onto yet.

[Shell Mound]

This is the strongest HWRF run so far, as 97L/Elsa is able to thread the gap between Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Looks like it could finish the run as a 950s Cat 3.

Such a track between the islands is unlikely, mainly due to how hard it is to get a track that perfect, and how the models don’t have a defined center to latch onto yet.

Expect the GFS, HWRF, and HMON to go from a strengthening hurricane to a middling TS over the islands as soon as reconnaissance and NHC initialise a true LLC.

[AlphaToOmega]

Based on model intensity guidance, I think a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane is likely. Maybe something in the range of 60-70 knots

[captainbarbossa19]

This is the strongest HWRF run so far, as 97L/Elsa is able to thread the gap between Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Looks like it could finish the run as a 950s Cat 3.

Such a track between the islands is unlikely, mainly due to how hard it is to get a track that perfect, and how the models don’t have a defined center to latch onto yet.

Expect the GFS, HWRF, and HMON to go from a strengthening hurricane to a middling TS over the islands as soon as reconnaissance and NHC initialise a true LLC.

That would be about right knowing the models. Then, the storm will do the opposite intensity-wise of what the models suggest and everyone will go

[Blown Away]

Hispaniola swallows 97L @96 hours on Euro... Euro is R outlier which is unusual...

[Cat5James]

Worth noting the CMC now brings this into SW FL

[jlauderdal]

Worth noting the CMC now brings this into SW FL

The peninsula south of Orlando has been under siege from the models for ten years...

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF... Finishes @1.5 degrees ENE of 06z... MH into Cuba moving NNW...

[NDG]

Another Euro failure in the MDR.

[Blown Away]

18z... TVCN way east of Florida...