ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#121 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:57 am

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#122 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:04 am


That is almost six hours old, and Henri’s convective structure has improved since then. It’s probably a hurricane now. I really wish we had recon for it.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#123 Postby Kohlecane » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:18 am

aspen wrote:

That is almost six hours old, and Henri’s convective structure has improved since then. It’s probably a hurricane now. I really wish we had recon for it.

With the shifts W and if that continues today into tomorrow, and lets just say the Euro hops on board then I can see them setting something up very soon IMO
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#124 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:25 am

Kohlecane wrote:
aspen wrote:

That is almost six hours old, and Henri’s convective structure has improved since then. It’s probably a hurricane now. I really wish we had recon for it.

With the shifts W and if that continues today into tomorrow, and lets just say the Euro hops on board then I can see them setting something up very soon IMO


I’d probably expect Recon tomorrow or Friday at the next POD.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#125 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:27 am

Darn, no more intermediate advisories for Henri.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#126 Postby JWWS » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:35 am

Why. no 8 am update from the NHS?
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#127 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:38 am

JWWS wrote:Why. no 8 am update from the NHS?


Bermuda took off the TS Warning.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#128 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:38 am

08L HENRI 210818 1200 30.0N 66.1W ATL 55 998
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#129 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Aug 18, 2021 7:53 am

With an increasing threat to New England and the Canadian Maritimes, recon needs to check this out and get some data for the models. At least one flight to start with. Still don’t see anything for Henri today or tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#130 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:08 am

If Henri's track shifts far enough west, it would go right over the Gulf Stream. Obviously assuming all other factors are favorable, a decent hurricane definitely would be in the cards.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#131 Postby Zonacane » Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:27 am

Henri could be the first major
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#132 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 18, 2021 8:37 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#133 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:16 am

TVCN is about 3.5 degrees west of the Day 5 NHC forecast, or about 240 miles. I'd be very surprised if there wasn't a significant shift westward with the NHC cone at 11 am.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#134 Postby Cataegis96 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:30 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427999698376224770




A rather ominous synoptic pattern about to unfold here. Need to watch if this west trend continues. Seems like every year in recent memory we see a rather anomalous track. Henri has the potential to be that storm this year.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#135 Postby chaser1 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:51 am

Once again, timing is everything. Any delay in northward gain in latitude creates an increasing potential for points near Long Island northward to be in play.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#136 Postby zhukm29 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:00 am

Starting to look like the hurricane symbol...

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#137 Postby aspen » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:06 am

zhukm29 wrote:Starting to look like the hurricane symbol...

https://i.ibb.co/8NsXN8g/goes16-vis-08-L-202108181222.gif

It almost seems like a primitive eye is starting to appear in later frames. I doubt this is still just 55 kt, but without recon or ASCAT, we won’t know for sure.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#138 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:09 am

I have the eye feature at 66.8w 29.8n
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#139 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:13 am

Eye-spy?

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#140 Postby Zonacane » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:15 am

Looking like Hugo with the dual equatorial outflow channels
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