EPAC: KAY - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Big snore.

[Yellow Evan]

Better.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857022688123682837/1016856068359471234/image0.jpg

Better.

Winds still need to catch up but this is getting close to MH status.

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2022 Time : 005031 UTC
Lat : 19:06:36 N Lon : 111:18:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 957mb / 97kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.5 5.6

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like recon turned around :/

That's unfortunate

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 06 2022

Kay looks slightly better organized on satellite imagery with a
broad eye-like feature surrounded by curved bands of strong
convection. Upper-level outflow is strong over all but the
northwestern portion of the circulation. The current intensity is
bumped up slightly to 80 kt which is a compromise between highly
varied subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. It should be
noted there is a greater than usual amount of uncertainty in the
advisory intensity.

Vertical wind shear on Kay is forecast to be low, and the system is
expected to remain in a fairly moist mid-level air mass for the next
few days. These factors should lead to further short-term
strengthening. However, SSTs will be decreasing significantly in 24
to 36 hours, which will likely result in a weakening trend
commencing on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, very cool
waters should result in Kay becoming a post-tropical cyclone after
it passes near the northern Baja California in around 96 hours.
This is consistent with simulated satellite imagery from the global
models that show little or no associated deep convection around that
time. The official intensity forecast is above the guidance
models, especially for the first half of the forecast period.

Kay continues northwestward, moving at about 320/11 kt. There is
little change to the track forecast reasoning. A ridge to the
northeast of the cyclone is expected to result in a mostly
north-northwestward motion for the next few days. This should bring
the core of the of Kay very near the west-central Baja California
coast on Thursday and Friday. Later in the forecast period,
low-level ridging is expected to cause the weakening cyclone to turn
westward. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and
also close to the corrected multi-model consensus.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall from Kay could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across portions of the Baja California peninsula and
mainland northwestern Mexico through Friday.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning Wednesday morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday, where a hurricane
watch has been issued. Additional tropical storm watches and
warnings for the northern Baja California peninsula could be
required later tonight and Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 111.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.6N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 26.8N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 28.5N 116.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 31.1N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 12/0000Z 30.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

Ragged and still needs to mix out the dry air but gradually deepening now.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay appears to be slightly better organized in satellite imagery
this morning with an eye that has become a little better defined
and a convective band with cloud tops as cold as -70 to -80C
wrapping around the center. There is a larger-than-normal spread
between the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates this morning
so there is more uncertainty regarding the hurricane's initial
intensity than usual. The initial intensity has been raised to
85 kt, commensurate with the recent increase in organization. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Kay this afternoon.

Kay is located over sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees
Celsius, and the vertical wind shear has decreased over the past 24
hours and become less than 10 kt over the storm. These conditions
should allow for some strengthening today. By tonight, Kay will be
moving over decreasing SSTs, and a weakening trend should begin
shortly thereafter. However, Kay is expected to remain a hurricane
when it passes near the west-central coast of the Baja peninsula on
Thursday and Thursday night. After that time, sharply decreasing
SSTs should produce a faster rate of weakening, and Kay is forecast
to become a post-tropical cyclone after it passes near northern Baja
California by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is above most of
the guidance at 12 hours, and then closely follows the SHIPS model
during the weakening phase of the forecast.

Kay has turned north-northwestward and is moving 330/10 kt. A
ridge to the east of Kay should steer the storm north-northwestward
during the next few days. This will take the core of the hurricane
near the west-central coast of Baja California on Thursday and
Friday. After that time, low-level ridging to the north of Kay
should cause it to turn westward as it weakens. The GFS and its
ensemble mean remain along the east side of the guidance envelope
while the ECMWF is closer to the center. The NHC track lies
between those typically reliable models and is between the TVCE
and HFIP consensus aids. The updated track is slightly to the right
of the previous advisory.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes its closest approach to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash
flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of Southern
California Friday night into Saturday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
Baja California peninsula beginning this morning, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.2N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 112.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 27.9N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.7N 116.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 30.8N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 31.2N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 30.1N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

After some dry air issues, this has resumed deepening especially in the last hour or so, with a convective burst quickly wrapping around and a clearing of the eye in conjunction with axissymetrization.

[aspen]

AF309 is about to take off for Kay. Maybe it’ll find a major or something close to it.

[cycloneye]

EP, 12, 2022090712, , BEST, 0, 206N, 1124W, 90, 975, HU

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep122022.dat

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2022 Time : 140020 UTC
Lat : 20:47:59 N Lon : 112:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 943mb / 115kts

[Kingarabian]

Very dry.

[TallyTracker]

Looking at the forecast track and size, I think a TS Watch may be warranted for southern California by later today or tomorrow morning as the TS wind field may scrape the coast. Any shift to the east in the track and more winds could come on shore in the San Diego area.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the vector of winds could blow right up the Sea of Cortes. Wonder if that would enhance any rain that falls in the US SW due to picking up moisture.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the forecast track and size, I think a TS Watch may be warranted for southern California by later today or tomorrow morning as the TS wind field may scrape the coast. Any shift to the east in the track and more winds could come on shore in the San Diego area.

Agreed, especially since the GFS has been showing 60-80kt gusts over the areas near the Laguna mountains.

NHC's track is favoring the Euro/UKMET solutions which are 150-200 miles west of the GFS/CMC -- the only two models that are right of the consensus.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the vector of winds could blow right up the Sea of Cortes. Wonder if that would enhance any rain that falls in the US SW due to picking up moisture.

NWS forecasts from San Diego County to Yuma County show enhanced rainfall in 3-4 days.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the vector of winds could blow right up the Sea of Cortes. Wonder if that would enhance any rain that falls in the US SW due to picking up moisture.

NWS forecasts from San Diego County to Yuma County show enhanced rainfall in 3-4 days.

I saw estimates of 2-4 inches of rain for San Diego and the eastern areas. That would cause severe flash flooding in those desert areas

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kay Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 07 2022

Kay appears to be on a strengthening trend. Satellite images
indicate that the hurricane has a large eye, with a diameter of
about 25 n mi, and a nearly symmetric eyewall. There are some dry
slots between the eyewall and rainbands, however. The subjective
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
T5.0/90 kt, and the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt based on
that data. This intensity estimate is below the latest ADT values
from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, so it is possible that
Kay could be a little stronger. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is en route to investigate Kay this afternoon, and the data
the plane collects will be very helpful in assessing the intensity
and structure of the hurricane.

Kay will likely strengthen a little more, and it could become
a major hurricane while it remains in conducive environmental
conditions today. However, by early tomorrow, the hurricane is
expected to move over sub 26 C SSTs and move over progressively
cooler waters during the following few days. The cooler SSTs and
drier air should cause a steady weakening trend later this week
and this weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one in the short term, and lies at the high end of
the guidance during the first few days of the forecast.

The hurricane is moving north-northwestward, and that motion should
continue for the next couple of days taking the core of Kay very
near or over the west-central Baja California peninsula on Thursday
and Friday. After that time, when Kay moves close to northern Baja,
a turn to the left is expected as the shallow system becomes steered
by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The
model guidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and close to
the various consensus models.

Kay is a very large tropical cyclone. It is producing an extensive
area of high seas, with swells affecting portions of southwestern
Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula. Although Kay is
likely to weaken before it makes landfall or moves very close to the
west-central coast of the Baja peninsula, it is forecast to remain a
large and dangerous hurricane through that time. In addition, high
wind, surf, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center so
users should not focus on the exact forecast track.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including
landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of
mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning. Flash
flooding is possible across the peninsular ranges of southern
California Friday night into Saturday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the
west-central Baja California coast on Thursday and Thursday night,
and a hurricane warning is in effect for that area.

3. Tropical storm conditions are beginning over portions of the
Baja California peninsula, and these conditions are expected
to spread northward during the next day or so, where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.1N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 22.7N 113.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 114.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 27.2N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.9N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 30.2N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 30.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.9N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 29.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi