East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

Another great view of Africa and what is on the pipe.

[WeatherEmperor]

Its only a matter of time now. Did I read correctly that the models unanimously agree on some sort of tropical cyclone development out of that wave? It must be something seriously if they all develop a wave that isnt even off Africa yet.

<RICKY>

[mahicks]

A LARGE AREA OF
TSTMS IS ALONG 10W... PROBABLY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER
THE AREA. IT MIGHT BE WORTH A SMALL MENTION THAT THERE IS
UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OF SOME SORT OF ATTEMPTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE WAVE AFTER IT LEAVES THE COAST IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

The above remarks from discussion at 8 PM.Interesting that TPC mentions a wave that still is inside Africa as a candidate for tropical cyclone development.

That thing is Huge and looks Great!

Looks bigger than Frances was last year doesn't it??

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GUCY.html

The above is observations from Guinea.Pressures are not too low yet but winds are westerly.That may indicate a low pressure to the NE of that station.The location in latitud and longitud of Guinea is at the top of site at link.

[cycloneye]

Here is the biggie wave poised to emerge in a few hours.And look inside Africa what is in the pipe.But of course after they emerge they have to get good enviromental conditions to then organize otherwise poof.

[superfly]

That wave in central Africa is a monster.

[Scorpion]

It sure looks nice but im concerned that its too high up in latitude that it might encounter more SAL or be a fish.

[SouthFloridawx]

The African wave GFS is picking up on is just about to come off of African coast heading toward the CV's

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's a no brainer that one of the waves moving off of the African coast will develop soon, but I'm done predicting which one. Everytime I open my mouth, the wave loses convection and becomes a nothing. So from now on, I won't mention it unless it's mentioned by the NHC

[cycloneye]

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BROAD ROTATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE WITH LOWER PRESSURES
SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THE WAVE COULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER NOW
THAT IT IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE ENHANCING W WINDS OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA. ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ.

This wave is the one well west of Africa but has a weak circulation with it.

[wxwatcher91]

the wave just exitting the African coast isnt looking as good as it did... but thats pretty much the case with any wave that exits the coast... lets see if it can hold itself together... the one behind it looks worse too though and its over land... most likely convection will increase with day-time heating for the one that is over land still.

things to watch for these waves:

satellite image:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

forecast models:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[WeatherEmperor]

the wave that just came off went poof. it could still fire some convection later on but who knows. Also looks like the SAL has lowered somewhat right near the African coast.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

the wave that just came off went poof. it could still fire some convection later on but who knows. Also looks like the SAL has lowered somewhat right near the African coast.

<RICKY>

well mike watkins addressed that last night..he said people look at the huge cloud mass over africa and when the cloud mass gets over the water it will fizzle out and people will say its dead, but the actual low or wave axis hasnt moved off yet.....with almost all the computer models developing this...i think it has the best chance out of all the other ones weve seen so far

[WeatherEmperor]

the wave that just came off went poof. it could still fire some convection later on but who knows. Also looks like the SAL has lowered somewhat right near the African coast.

<RICKY>

well mike watkins addressed that last night..he said people look at the huge cloud mass over africa and when the cloud mass gets over the water it will fizzle out and people will say its dead, but the actual low or wave axis hasnt moved off yet.....with almost all the computer models developing this...i think it has the best chance out of all the other ones weve seen so far

Yup. Im with ya on that regard.

<RICKY>

[JTD]

If this wave doesn't develop, I am going to have a nervous breakdown.

[cycloneye]

WeatherEmperor if you see a wave fizzle it's convection after it hits the water it does not mean that wave is gone.The wave axis is the key and as it moves off the coast it will refire convection especially if it is a well organized wave.I always give the african waves a couple of days before I say it will develop or not.Also dont be fooled by big blobs of convection that emerge the African coast many times with waves as those are squall lines that form ahead of the wave axis and those squall lines dissipate in the water.

[WeatherEmperor]

WeatherEmperor if you see a wave fizzle it's convection after it hits the water it does not mean that wave is gone.The wave axis is the key and as it moves off the coast it will refire convection especially if it is a well organized wave.I always give the african waves a couple of days before I say it will develop or not.Also dont be fooled by big blobs of convection that emerge the African coast many times with waves as those are squall lines that form ahead of the wave axis and those squall lines dissipate in the water.

Yeah I know. I also noticed that right off the African coast the SAL has gone away somewhat so once this entire wave entirely moves off Africa we can see something happen here.

<RICKY>

[JTD]

WeatherEmperor if you see a wave fizzle it's convection after it hits the water it does not mean that wave is gone.The wave axis is the key and as it moves off the coast it will refire convection especially if it is a well organized wave.I always give the african waves a couple of days before I say it will develop or not.Also dont be fooled by big blobs of convection that emerge the African coast many times with waves as those are squall lines that form ahead of the wave axis and those squall lines dissipate in the water.

Luis,

When looking at the present state of the SAL, how does it look compared to this point last season or this point in 2003? Does it look stronger this year than others?

To me, as a untrained observer who's just recently gotten into the intricacies of hurricane development, that SAL layer in that map above looks devastating for tropical development. Am I way off? Does Africa's coast always look like that?

[WeatherEmperor]

Jason, you can take a look at the website I posted in regards to the SAL.

<RICKY>

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... k/sal.html

[JTD]

Thanks, Ricky. I was just wondering though what the current state of the SAL is. Is the SAL layer right now less than usual, denser than usual, etc?