Invest 94L,Comments,Sat Pic,Models Thread

johngaltfla · #121 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:47 pm

Mother Nature is running out of targets in the GOM. Let's pray this one fizzles over land.

:eek:

#122 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:49 pm

CFL wrote:Ivanhater, we may be okay here. This is from our local NWS office discussion:

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY)
UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE
SHUNTED NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY
SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HELD AT 30% OR LESS THRU THIS PERIOD.

that is some good news, i just dont like the uncertainty with the models

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #123 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:51 pm

Even if the system were to head on a more westerly track it would
likely be ripped apart by the FL Peninsula...so GOM for right now there is
not too much to worry about. But do keep monitoring it.

rockyman · #124 Postby **rockyman** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:54 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Even if the system were to head on a more westerly track it would
likely be ripped apart by the FL Peninsula...so GOM for right now there is
not too much to worry about. But do keep monitoring it.

I know you are trying to be optimistic, but we just saw a storm that was not "ripped apart the FL Peninsula"...granted, the storm went across the swamps, but the Florida Peninsula is by no means a shield for storms.

artist · #125 Postby **artist** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 8:59 pm

all I know is this system is about to flood us out literally from all the rain! :eek:

Nimbus · #126 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:02 pm

Look at the water vapor loop there is flow from west to east thatt should protect the northern gulf coast.

At worst this storm will hang around south florida where the toe of that ridge has pushed across the peninsula.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #127 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:03 pm

Yup we'll have to wait and see.

It has gotten really windy here in the last hour. Gusts easily 22-28 mph.
Could 94L be developing into a TD as we speak?

#128 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 9:45 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
MARIA... LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING... UPPER
LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB

10:30 PM TWO for 94L

Praxus · #129 Postby **Praxus** » Sun Sep 04, 2005 10:25 pm

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/sate ... 70_100.jpg

Looking a bit nasty...

nequad · #130 Postby **nequad** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:11 am

This from Wilmington NWS...

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO LARGELY HINGE ON THE PROSPECTIVE LOW
FORMING EAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON
A SOLUTION THAT WILL SHOW A LOW RIDING UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
PENINSULA VERY SLOWLY AND TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST JUST NORTH OF
THE SPACE COAST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW FAR NORTH AND HOW QUICKLY
THE RESULTING MOISTURE IS FLUNG UP THE COAST, AND ALSO AS TO HOW
FAR INLAND IT PENETRATES. CURRENT FORECAST IS MOLDED AFTER A
TONED DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS, BRINGING SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL PROBABLY EMPHASIZE THE BEACHES IN THE ZFP. WHETHER
THE LOW MOVES UP NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS OPPOSED TO JUST
MEANDERING THE BEACHES OF FLORIDA MAY END UP DEPENDING ON ITS
DEGREE OF BAROCLINICITY. A FAIRLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL TEND TO
START MOVING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE INDUCED LOWER
PRESSURE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE. A MORE
BAROTROPIC SYSTEM WILL BE FREE TO HANG OUT AROUND FLORIDA UNTIL
STEERED BY AN EXTERNAL FORCE.

#131 Postby **CentralFlGal** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:16 am

Surf is starting to shape up in Cocoa Beach thx to 94L.

Gusts keeps growing :cold:

sma10 · #132 Postby **sma10** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:17 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... hour=102hr

Surely, God's sense of humor can't be this sick?

JamesFromMaine2 · #133 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 2:24 am

lets just hope the GFDL isn't right with this one even though it was right with Katrina!

joe_koehle · #134 Postby **joe_koehle** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:42 am

sma10 wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005090500-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=102hr

Surely, God's sense of humor can't be this sick?

that's absolutely crazy

Nimbus · #135 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:49 am

Lets wait and see where the low level center forms.

This morning whatever circulation there is looks elongated and sinking southwest.

The model runs would look different if they initialized a TD further southwest.

I like the LBAR but 94 could even come up the west coast of Florida if it continues its extrapolated motion.

#136 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 5:53 am

Earlier this morning: 05/0645 UTC 25.6N 77.6W TOO WEAK 94

#137 Postby **canetracker** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 6:54 am

Any idea on steering currents that could possibly influence this storm away from the GOM and SE LA? Can't go thru this again!!! Can't even get home yet.

Thunder44 · #138 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:04 am

Looks like this is beginning to develop now. Convection is increasing this morning and radar shows thunderstorms circulating around the low pressure area just east of Miami.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

#139 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:04 am

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N79W BETWEEN THE N BAHAMAS AND
THE S FLORIDA COAST...DRIFTING SLOWLY SW. THIS IS A BROAD AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE WITH LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THUS...THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THAT TIME. AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 74W-80W.

From 8 AM Discussion.

#140 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Sep 05, 2005 7:19 am

Luis, drifting SW just like Katrina! Does this look like a real possibility to you?

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