GOM is very active right now......

[wxman57]

Don't be too surprised if we wake up to a depression. Albeit a weak one.

Uhh...If we wake up to a depression...I will be BEYOND shocked...I will be floored and down-righted flabergasted.

It's a cold front with an associated unstable wave. That's why it was only 78 degrees today for a HIGH today in HOUSTON!

Yes...the HIGH was 78. In the middle of May. That's how you know that's a cold front.

Yep, it's a frontal wave/low. Nothing tropical about it. It'll be over Florida by this time tomorrow night then racing off to the NE off the east U.S. coast on Wednesday. I seriously doubt the NHC would bother with a non-tropical system that's not likely to produce more than 20-30 kt winds offshore prior to reaching Florida.

[gatorcane]

what will storm2k be like when the first real system develops close to home.....there are 2000+ views for this nothing system.

[HURAKAN]

Development: Not expected!!!

Rain: YES!!!

[Damar91]

At least we get some much needed rain!

[jimvb]

So this possibility is going to fizzle, it looks like. The GFS still continues to show a storm forming in the Gulf somewhere around a week or two from now, and this time it calls for a SW to NE path across the Gulf, across Florida, and into the Atlantic. Take a look at 276 hours (May 27), for instance, on the 2006/05/15 18Z run. This does not necessarily mean this particular storm will form, especially since this is 1-2 weeks out. But the GFS over and over again has been showing some kind of GOM storm. So this area bears watching 1-2 weeks from now.

[HURAKAN]

THERE SHOULDN'T BE A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BLOB OF CONVECTION.

[Damar91]

THERE SHOULDN'T BE A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BLOB OF CONVECTION.

[img]

So maybe admin should lock the thread then, since we shouldn't be able to discuss it.

[HURAKAN]

So maybe admin should lock the thread then, since we shouldn't be able to discuss it.

What I meant to say, in case my words were misinterpreted, was that since there is so much shear in the Gulf of Mexico just the idea of possible development is nonexistent. This will be a rain event, and nothing more. Tropical development in this case is almost impossible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I give this zero percent chance of development

[CHRISTY]

VERYUNFAVORABLE!!!:

[JonathanBelles]

[img]http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL[/img]

looks like a hurricane could survive

[Damar91]

As in the words of President Bartlett, "what's next"?

[HURAKAN]

I know everyone is pumped for the arrival of the next hurricane season, but experience will tell you that not every blob becomes a depression and then a storm. I have seen a lot of tropical waves that look terrific after coming out of Africa fizzle out in the air. Lets just wait a few more weeks and the dream of tracking another Atlantic storm will be realized.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This blob watching is starting to get ridiculous. When it is quite obvious after a few posts on a system that it will *not* develop, there should be no reason for discussion to continue to this many pages.

Not to mention, we already went over the appropriate use of computer models. Do not use them period after about 5 days out.

Let's all save the discussion and brainpower for when we have real systems. I know you can do it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

A low is forming in the GOMEX AND i THINK IT COULD BECOME SOME BUT NO MORE THEN A SubTropical Depression i think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEXT 12 HOURS WILL COME FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE GULF...WHERE W/V IMAGERY INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING. W/V ALSO SHOWS STRONG JET OVER GA...AND ANOTHER OVER
THE SW GULF. THE LATTER IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL BY
MODELS...AND BELIEVE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE 1012 MB FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUOYS OVERNIGHT FOR
DEEPENING

[Extremeweatherguy]

This blob watching is starting to get ridiculous. When it is quite obvious after a few posts on a system that it will *not* develop, there should be no reason for discussion to continue to this many pages.

Not to mention, we already went over the appropriate use of computer models. Do not use them period after about 5 days out.

Let's all save the discussion and brainpower for when we have real systems. I know you can do it.

I agree. If this were to be mid or late June, then it may be something to watch...but for now; it is simply a blob of moisture with a 1 in 1000 chance of developing. Then again, if that 1 in 1000 chance does play out, then it would be quite exciting.

[Damar91]

A low is forming in the GOMEX AND i THINK IT COULD BECOME SOME BUT NO MORE THEN A SubTropical Depression i think!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NEXT 12 HOURS WILL COME FROM ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE GULF...WHERE W/V IMAGERY INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURRING. W/V ALSO SHOWS STRONG JET OVER GA...AND ANOTHER OVER
THE SW GULF. THE LATTER IS NOT BEING PICKED UP WELL BY
MODELS...AND BELIEVE LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF WILL BE
STRONGER THAN THE 1012 MB FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF BY
DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR BUOYS OVERNIGHT FOR
DEEPENING

Oh Boy!

[HURAKAN]

A vertical structure and 50 knots of wind shear simply don't mix.

[hurricanefloyd5]

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't be too surprised if we wake up to a depression. Albeit a weak one.

Uhh...If we wake up to a depression...I will be BEYOND shocked...I will be floored and down-righted flabergasted.

It's a cold front with an associated unstable wave. That's why it was only 78 degrees today for a HIGH today in HOUSTON!

Yes...the HIGH was 78. In the middle of May. That's how you know that's a cold front.

It was very nice here today! I wish it could stay like this for a good week, but within a few days we will likely be back up into the 90s...