INVEST 93L Comments Thread #2

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2006

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
NEAR 20N75W TO 27N71W MOVING WNW 15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND A WAVE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 12.5N74.5W.

[wxman57]

wxman, would you say the apprx. location of the wave would be here:

Yeah, it's in that area. Not much to look at without convection -- a combination of dry air and rapid westward movement has given it a stealthy look. But I think it'll flare up considerably by Sunday night/Monday. May have a better shot of development than 94L did.

[wxman57]

It's baaaacccckkkk.... The wave associated with 93L has reached about 86-87W this morning, and convection is flaring up across the eastern Yucatan. Additional flare-ups can be expected today as it crosses the Yucatan. By tomorrow, it may produce some very heavy thunderstorms across the BoC. Upper-level winds aren't extremely favorable for development there, but it may have a slightly better shot than 94L did (maybe 15-20% vs 5-10%). Odds are, though, it means more moisture pumping northward up the east coat of Mexico toward Texas next week.

[beachbum_al]

Is there any chance that this moisture will make it toward South Alabama?

[canetracker]

It will be interesting to see what happens when ex-93L gets in the BOC area and meets up with ex-94L.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[SouthFloridawx]

TPC has the northern end of the wave in the BOC which probably will flare up an already moisture laden Southern GOM.

However wxman57 is right about upper upper level winds being not the best for development.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

Seems as if 93 is having more of an interaction over Florida than the Yucatan at the present.

Sure is becoming a bit worrisome with regards to the flood threat over portions of SE Texas and LA.

[SouthFloridawx]

18Z GFS shows upper level winds becoming more favorable showing 10kts of shear or less in the southern BOC. Currently 20kts plus upper level winds

18Z 00hour
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif


250 mb wind/hghts. 24 hour
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

300 mb wind/hghts. 24 hour
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

250mb loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

EDIT:

I think we'll start to see convection starting to fire over the yuck and the BOC in the next 6-12 hours as the wave passes closer and closer to the BOC.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/TSA_latestBW.gif

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not one to get into the "blob" watch. But after the last week or so, and taking what 57 has been saying about 93. This firing of convection over the Yuctan does seem worthy of watching.

[southerngale]

I was just looking at that flareup. It seems like most everything in the BOC has been moving generally northward, but since this is moving west right now, wouldn't it just keep on moving west across the BOC and into Mexico or is there something that would cause it not to keep going west? I'm asking because I saw wxman57 mention the ever so *slight* possibility it would have to develop in the BOC and I remember reading somewhere where AFM said something about it sending more moisture into Texas once it got into the BOC, or something like that. I guess I just don't get why it wouldn't just keep on trekking west.

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just looking at that flareup. It seems like most everything in the BOC has been moving generally northward, but since this is moving west right now, wouldn't it just keep on moving west across the BOC and into Mexico or is there something that would cause it not to keep going west? I'm asking because I saw wxman57 mention the ever so *slight* possibility it would have to develop in the BOC and I remember reading somewhere where AFM said something about it sending more moisture into Texas once it got into the BOC, or something like that. I guess I just don't get why it wouldn't just keep on trekking west.

Ya know I think that would depend on type of system that your talking about. It appears ala wv loop there is some strong shear in the upper levels to the west of this convection so depending on whether that shear keeps up it is possible that it could advect some of that moisture northward into the already moisture laden west gom. It is possible it could aid convection along the surface trough 24 hours from now. I guess it would depend on the stearing flow and what type of "system" it is.

[Noah]

Man, Sarasota getting clobbered with rain and thunderstorms all day.. what invest is offecting us.. rained all last night too..thundering all night keeping me up

[Stratosphere747]

The shear for now is much less than anything 94 had to deal with.

The last few visible images, are IMO very impressive in a area that needed to be watched in this timeframe.

[Opal storm]

Wow this thing really blew up.Will be interesting to see what happens when this gets into the BOC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Man, Sarasota getting clobbered with rain and thunderstorms all day.. what invest is offecting us.. rained all last night too..thundering all night keeping me up

That invest would be the northern-most part of Ex-93L or the
northern part of the blob that was once 93L...the rest of
Ex-93L, it's central and southern parts are over the
Yucatan and exiting it into the Bay Of Campeche.
A tropical wave, the northern part of Ex-93L crossed
Florida today, and that helped fuel our thunderstorms
today. There were several reports of tropical storm force
wind gusts over 40 mph in the Tampa Bay area and likely
similar conditions occurred with those thunderstorms
near Sarasota.

As for the rest of 93L, it's development in the BOC is possible...it ought
to be watched IMO.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2006

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER YUCATAN ALONG 88W/89W S
OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR
A LARGE BLOWUP OVER TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL
AMERICA N OF 16N AND OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TONIGHT. THESE TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHORTLY AND DIE
OUT OVERNIGHT.

Let's see if they do die off this evening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are low, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

[bigmoney755]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are better, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

Well the NHC said that the thunderstorms will die off overnight. It must just be a little quick flare and nothing more.

[stormtruth]

93L is looking mighty healthy this evening. And it's not just daytime heating over land causing the blow-up.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93L.gif

Now I still think development chances are better, but don't you think it's time to stop discussing 94L's potential and look down south if you want to "blob-watch"?

Well the NHC said that the thunderstorms will die off overnight. It must just be a little quick flare and nothing more.

I think that was a few hours ago the NHC said that. It looks to be the only blob in town tonight. The NRL site is still invest free.