Cat 4 hurricanes very unlikely north of Florida on E Coast

[Sean in New Orleans]

You know, I remember the last time Derek posted something that almost everyone on this board disagreed with. It turned into a 40-plus page topic... yes, I'm talking about some data that indicated Katrina might have been a category 3 at landfall instead of a category 4. And -- you guessed it -- the NHC later said in its post-storm report that Katrina was indeed a cat 3 at landfall.

I'm not saying that Hugo was a category 5. It probably wasn't, based on the statistics that were supposed to be the topic of this thread. Derek hasn't even unequivocally stated that himself; he's simply said that he thinks the chances are greater than most people believe. But I've doubted him before and I turned out to be wrong. I'd think twice before questioning his credibility or reputation.

Katrina was a category 3...that's one thing that I won't deny...we only had sustained 120mph winds in New Orleans with gusts to 135mph to 140 mph...but, that baby, came with a Cat. 5 storm surge and nobody is denying that...I really think that, after what happened last year, with Katrina, the NHC should offer two forecasts...one forecast would categorize the winds and another would categorize the surge. It would keep things much clearer for people. For people to think that Katrina was a category 3 is somewhat misleading because that refers only to winds...people don't think about a 30+ foot storm surge when they think of a category 3 hurricane...at least I don't.

N.O didn't get the cat 3 winds,mostly cat 1 conditions.

I'll just refer you to this official map...and btw...I was here and witnessed the storm with my own eyes...and we had instruments on the third floor of our hotel (the roof)...
http://www.ncddc.noaa.gov/Katrina/Paper ... eedMap.pdf

[Audrey2Katrina]

The bottom-line is that CAT 4+ hurricanes are very rare north of Florida and even the northern GOM.

Non- Sequitur... doesn't mean they can't or haven't happened in the past, or won't in the future.

no matter how you analyze it folks. Unfortunately South Florida is a ticking timebomb waiting to go off

It's not "my" analysis I pointed to; but those of many "professional meteorologists" no matter how you, or anyone else tries to analyze that; and yes... we know... we know... ALL the monster storms are the sole providence of South Florida... and you're welcome to them.

A2K

[gatorcane]

The bottom-line is that CAT 4+ hurricanes are very rare north of Florida and even the northern GOM.

Non- Sequitur... doesn't mean they can't or haven't happened in the past, or won't in the future.

no matter how you analyze it folks. Unfortunately South Florida is a ticking timebomb waiting to go off

It's not "my" analysis I pointed to; but those of many "professional meteorologists" not matter how you, or anyone else tries to analyze that; and yes... we know... we know... ALL the monster storms are the sole providence of South Florida... and you're welcome to them.



A2K

True I agree, there is still some possibility of the northern GOM and/or SE US coastline to experience a CAT 4+ hurricane but fortunately the chances are small - I wish the chances were small for South Florida

[Pearl River]

Opal Storm wrote

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:
You know, I remember the last time Derek posted something that almost everyone on this board disagreed with. It turned into a 40-plus page topic... yes, I'm talking about some data that indicated Katrina might have been a category 3 at landfall instead of a category 4. And -- you guessed it -- the NHC later said in its post-storm report that Katrina was indeed a cat 3 at landfall.

I'm not saying that Hugo was a category 5. It probably wasn't, based on the statistics that were supposed to be the topic of this thread. Derek hasn't even unequivocally stated that himself; he's simply said that he thinks the chances are greater than most people believe. But I've doubted him before and I turned out to be wrong. I'd think twice before questioning his credibility or reputation.

Katrina was a category 3...that's one thing that I won't deny...we only had sustained 120mph winds in New Orleans with gusts to 135mph to 140 mph...but, that baby, came with a Cat. 5 storm surge and nobody is denying that...I really think that, after what happened last year, with Katrina, the NHC should offer two forecasts...one forecast would categorize the winds and another would categorize the surge. It would keep things much clearer for people. For people to think that Katrina was a category 3 is somewhat misleading because that refers only to winds...people don't think about a 30+ foot storm surge when they think of a category 3 hurricane...at least I don't.
N.O didn't get the cat 3 winds,mostly cat 1 conditions.

Peak wind 107kts=123.05mph Eastern New Orleans at Michoud. Does not say gust. 123mph=cat3

[Audrey2Katrina]

I'll just refer you to this official map...

Sean, I sympathize with you, I really do; but that map is based on wind damage and presumes maximum "gusts"... although you do have a valid point in that New Orleans East--by THAT map received those of upwards of 140 mph...which pretty much dispells those who insist that no area of New Orleans received above Cat 2 winds--- of course there will still be those who employ the 1.6 ratio to still justify no better than Cat 2 in NO East, even though an equally possible 1.2 or 1.3 ratio would yield potentially minimal Cat 3.... like I said... nobody's going to "win" this debate. People are going to believe whatever they want to believe--and that's the way it'll always be. Remember the 11th Commandment:

And the lord told Moses (Malone?):

Thou livest in a land of bilk and money, thou livest in the Northern Gulf, and therefore let it be decreed: Thou shalt NOT have any hurricane above Category 3.

And Moses descended from the mountain and delivered the commandments to the people! And (with few exceptions they accepted the command!)

A2K

[Pearl River]

A2K wrote

And the lord told Moses (Malone?):

Thou livest in a land of bilk and money, thou livest in the Northern Gulf, and therefore let it be decreed: Thou shalt NOT have any hurricane above Category 3.

And Moses descended from the mountain and delivered the commandments to the people! And (with few exceptions they accepted the command!)

A2K

[Frank P]

I'll just refer you to this official map...

And the lord told Moses (Malone?):

Thou livest in a land of bilk and money, thou livest in the Northern Gulf, and therefore let it be decreed: Thou shalt NOT have any hurricane above Category 3.

And Moses descended from the mountain and delivered the commandments to the people! And (with few exceptions they accepted the command!)

A2K

A2Kyou forgot the other part.....

But the lord also told Moses...

An tho thou livest amongst the northern gulf and thee shall not receive the wrath of my category 4 or 5 storms, I will still smitten thee with storm surges of biblical and epic proportions.... storm surges unbeknown to any other lands amonst the coast.... historic surges exceeding the fury of the greatest of any Category 5 storm.... surges that will be revered for all centuries.. all this I save for thee

[Pearl River]

Frank P wrote

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Quote:

I'll just refer you to this official map...



And the lord told Moses (Malone?):

Thou livest in a land of bilk and money, thou livest in the Northern Gulf, and therefore let it be decreed: Thou shalt NOT have any hurricane above Category 3.

And Moses descended from the mountain and delivered the commandments to the people! And (with few exceptions they accepted the command!)

A2K


A3Kyou forgot the other part.....

But the lord also told Moses...

An tho thou livest amongst the northern gulf and thee shall not receive the wrath of my category 4 or 5 storms, I will still smitten thee with storm surges of biblical and epic proportions.... storm surges unbeknown to any other lands amonst the coast.... historic surges exceeding the fury of the greatest of any Category 5 storm.... surges that will be revered for all centuries.. all this I save for thee

I think the Lord forgot to tell Noah so he could have the Ark ready.

[Audrey2Katrina]

An tho thou livest amongst the northern gulf and thee shall not receive the wrath of my category 4 or 5 storms, I will still smitten thee with storm surges of biblical and epic proportions.... storm surges unbeknown to any other lands amonst the coast.... historic surges exceeding the fury of the greatest of any Category 5 storm.... surges that will be revered for all centuries.. all this I save for thee

Priceless, Frank.... and SO ummm "Prophetic!!" You see, I only quoted EXIT US 20, vs. 11 and 12.... You added 13 and 14!

A2K

[wxman57]

N.O didn't get the cat 3 winds,mostly cat 1 conditions

Boy did I EVER see this coming! NO East Got at least Cat 2 winds... officially! Remember New Orleans extends all the way to practically the Mississippi line where Katrina made landfall---moot point---dead horse *sigh*

A2K

The HRD post-storm analysis of Katrina's wind swath indicates that downtown New Orleans was just outside Cat 1 sustained 1-minute winds. Cat 2 sustained 1-minute winds were mostly confined to over the water NE-SE of New Orleans, actually north and east of Michoud, which is well east of downtown New Orleans. New Orleans (downtown) was outside Katrina's western eyewall, so don't think for a second you saw a Cat 3 hurricane there in downtown New Orleans. You saw the western edge of a Cat 3 hurricane - Cat 1 sustained 1-minute winds. Here's the HRD wind analysis map (1 min winds in mph) with the various SS categories outlined.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/KatrinaWinds.gif

And I'd certainly deny that New Orleans and MS got a "Cat 5 storm surge". Since Katrina was a Cat 3 at the MS landfall, they got a "Cat 3 storm surge". That's the problem with associating a particular storm surge height with a peak wind scale - such an association doesn't exist, as I've pointed out numerous times.

[Pearl River]

wxman57 wrote

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Quote:

N.O didn't get the cat 3 winds,mostly cat 1 conditions



Boy did I EVER see this coming! NO East Got at least Cat 2 winds... officially! Remember New Orleans extends all the way to practically the Mississippi line where Katrina made landfall---moot point---dead horse *sigh*

A2K


The HRD post-storm analysis of Katrina's wind swath indicates that downtown New Orleans was just outside Cat 1 sustained 1-minute winds. Cat 2 sustained 1-minute winds were mostly confined to over the water NE-SE of New Orleans, actually north and east of Michoud, which is well east of downtown New Orleans. New Orleans (downtown) was outside Katrina's western eyewall, so don't think for a second you saw a Cat 3 hurricane there in downtown New Orleans. You saw the western edge of a Cat 3 hurricane - Cat 1 sustained 1-minute winds. Here's the HRD wind analysis map (1 min winds in mph) with the various SS categories outlined.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/KatrinaWinds.gif

And I'd certainly deny that New Orleans and MS got a "Cat 5 storm surge". Since Katrina was a Cat 3 at the MS landfall, they got a "Cat 3 storm surge". That's the problem with associating a particular storm surge height with a peak wind scale - such an association doesn't exist, as I've pointed out numerous times.

I have heard several pro-mets not agree with the HRD wind analysis and I just received an e-mail from one of the local pro-mets who stated the surge was more along the line of a cat4. So you see, even pro-mets cannot agree with one another.

I don't think anyone said downtown New Orleans received cat3 winds, I may be wrong, but New Orleans did receive cat3 winds.

Peak wind 107kts=123.05mph Eastern New Orleans at Michoud. Does not say gust. 123mph=cat3

[Audrey2Katrina]

The HRD post-storm analysis of Katrina's wind swath indicates that downtown New Orleans was just outside Cat 1 sustained 1-minute winds.

Well frankly, I really don't much care what the HRD maps show, beyond acknowledging it as THEIR analysis, which I consider not only seriously flawed; but bordering on the ridiculous. Aside from the fact that actual land recorded observations contradict those lines, if one were to go by THAT map even Buras didn't receive CAT 3 winds, which I find beyond the pale... and that in and of itself tells me how credible that particula analysis is. One map does not a fact establish--in either case.

Since Katrina was a Cat 3 at the MS landfall, they got a "Cat 3 storm surge".

Playing a semantic game only renders one's position so nebulous as to place the terms into the realm of irrelevance. Okay... so, can I play? I'll make it a statement like this:

Katrina had a Cat 3 storm surge... which was unequivocally, and indisputably worse than any Cat 5 surge on record in the Atlantic Basin, and perhaps all but one or two Cat 5 surges in the recorded history of the entire world.

That make it better? Kind of makes calling something a Cat X surge an irrelevance.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

so don't think for a second you saw a Cat 3 hurricane there in downtown New Orleans.

Ummm ... don't think I did... not even for a nano second... in the first place, had you read MY posts, which you cited making it appear as if the claim were mine, I made it quite clear I wasn't making that claim. However, likewise, don't you think for a second that just because some number crunchers or pro-mets sitting in an office draw a map with pretty multi-colored lines around it that this must be regarded as gospel and that the anemometer readings at Michoud take a back seat to this pretty map... well that's just not gonna happen. You go for the data you wish; I'll go for the data I've seen.

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

I asked this question once before; and nobody has answered me yet, but I'd really like an answer...

What would you say might have been the maximum winds from Katrina AFTER Mississippi landfall, somewhere around Gulfport, or Bay St. Louis... but about somewhere up near the 850 to 900 mb level? I'd really like to know what they would consider a reasonable absolute maximum potential gust up there--especially since the much revered HRD map seems to show that at the surface this area only received Cat 2 winds maximum.

A2K

[Frank P]

""""Katrina had a Cat 3 storm surge... which was unequivocally, and indisputably worse than any Cat 5 surge on record in the Atlantic Basin, and perhaps all but one or two Cat 5 surges in the recorded history of the entire world. """"


A2K that quote was priceless....

What we have here is a storm rating categorization system that's worthless as it relates to surge... If Katrina's surge was not equilivant to a Category 5 hurricane surge, then there is no such thing as a Category 5 storm surge.... this was as documented perhaps the greatest storm surge in modern weather history.... so then we can argue this was perhaps the greatest hurricane in modern history.... even at "just" Category 3...

no where can you show me MORE devastation and destruction and suffering which was inflicted by Katrina along the MS and LA coasts..... even if you take the city of New Orleans out of the equation, the devastation along the MS coast is unmatched and would probably exceed any other hurricane in history..... and we all know what happened to New Orleans.... I see people every day from all over the country who are down here trying to help out, and many are faith based.... and they are just in total disbelief of what they see.... there is not a weekend that goes by, even 10 months after the storm, that people don't stop there cars right in the middle of HWY 90 and take pictures of my neighborhood...

and the sad part is its so much worse in the cities of Pass Christian, Long Beach, Bay St. Louis and Waveland...

[Opal storm]

Storm surge is not categorized,so there is no such thing as a "cat 5 storm surge".

[MGC]

I challenge the HRD people to personally come on down to the coast, with their silly wind analysis chart in hand and I will show them where they are wrong. I have not bought into their finding at all. Sorry, but I've been all over the place down here and the most wind damage in not where HRD insists the highest winds were. I'll even buy them lunch, a drink or two and then I'll tell where there high tech toys are wrong.......MGC

[Audrey2Katrina]

What we have here is a storm rating categorization system that's worthless as it relates to surge... If Katrina's surge was not equilivant to a Category 5 hurricane surge, then there is no such thing as a Category 5 storm surge.... this was as documented perhaps the greatest storm surge in modern weather history.... so then we can argue this was perhaps the greatest hurricane in modern history.... even at "just" Category 3...

Be careful of what you're saying there, Frank! Actual Category 3 is restricted pretty much only to areas offshore--over water--if you don't believe me, just check the HRD wind profile map! Why, heck, most parts of Biloxi only had Cat 2... so I guess you folks "only" had a Cat 2 surge.... and Pascagoula? why by those contours it looks like all they got was a Cat 1 surge in Pascagoula--that just happens to have been worse than the Cat 5 surge of Camille... and why not include Mobile which received only a Cat 0 surge...or perhaps better worded only a TS surge, that was worse than the surge they got from that monster called Frederick, or even Ivan.... ain't relativity wonderful? A Cat 0 surge flooding Mobile so badly that bridges and thousands of homes are inundated...

Of course this is obviously an argument ad absurdum... the whole point of calling what Katrina was as "only" a Cat 3 surge is ridiculous. And like I said before, knowing both the actual profile of the land in that map, and having viewed other HRD maps over areas of consistently LESS land area that didn't remotely parallel the coastline the way this one does, well, it does very little to instill much confidence in me for their product--my opinion. I acknowledge it as a product they've analyzed... I simply equally think it's a horrible analysis--my opinion and I'm sticking to it.

A2K

[Opal storm]

I think HRD is accurate for the most part,and a good tool for people to look at and see what winds they actually experienced during a hurricane.I think the Katrina map is right.

[Ivanhater]

I remember all the same discussions after Ivan, and at first I took it personally, how could some "pro met" or anyone else for that matter sit back and tell me we only had this or that in Pensacola when Most of my family lost everything on Pensacola beach(and some are still living in Gulf Breeze waiting to build back on the beach) but the destruction speaks for its self and now I let those trivial things roll of my back...so I sympathize with yall.