98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Extremeweatherguy
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#121 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:39 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:As posted much earlier about this area there just isn't enough time for it to develop into much if at all. Between the Shear and its proximity to land it just won't have time to become much more than a heavy rain maker for the N and NW Gulf Coasts.

I still think the one to watch is the stubborn low embedded in the TW east of the Antilles. When a system can hold its own through that much dry air it gets my attention especially as it gets closer to the islands at the same time as the MJO is moving in. I still believe it could be a Florida problem down the road.


I thought so too, but now I am leaning more toward it being a Gulf problem. The latest NHC forecast takes this through the Caribbean and JB thinks this could be one to watch in the western Gulf next week at this time. Either way, I think this has potential to be our first hurricane of the season (if it can hold together).
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#122 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:As posted much earlier about this area there just isn't enough time for it to develop into much if at all. Between the Shear and its proximity to land it just won't have time to become much more than a heavy rain maker for the N and NW Gulf Coasts.

I still think the one to watch is the stubborn low embedded in the TW east of the Antilles. When a system can hold its own through that much dry air it gets my attention especially as it gets closer to the islands at the same time as the MJO is moving in. I still believe it could be a Florida problem down the road.


I thought so too, but now I am leaning more toward it being a Gulf problem. The latest NHC forecast takes this through the Caribbean and JB thinks this could be one to watch in the western Gulf next week at this time. Either way, I think this has potential to be our first hurricane of the season (if it can hold together).


Hmm...

Strange that this system is not "good enough..."

So we need to look this far east...

Thought this was a thread about 98L?
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#123 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:46 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:As posted much earlier about this area there just isn't enough time for it to develop into much if at all. Between the Shear and its proximity to land it just won't have time to become much more than a heavy rain maker for the N and NW Gulf Coasts.

I still think the one to watch is the stubborn low embedded in the TW east of the Antilles. When a system can hold its own through that much dry air it gets my attention especially as it gets closer to the islands at the same time as the MJO is moving in. I still believe it could be a Florida problem down the road.


Not if it develops further north and east.
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#124 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:46 pm

LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:
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#125 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 24, 2006 9:54 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:



Nah, the discussions are legit. I think JB is seeing a set-up for a more westernly tracks this year. Last two years show a trend... maybe..
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#126 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:05 pm

ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:



Nah, the discussions are legit. I think JB is seeing a set-up for a more westernly tracks this year. Last two years show a trend... maybe..


Sorry Rock....

This was and is a discussion about 98L and the potential formation and effects...

For some reason we have to hear about JB's prediction or possibilities about a major hitting the Texas coast...
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#127 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:07 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:



Nah, the discussions are legit. I think JB is seeing a set-up for a more westernly tracks this year. Last two years show a trend... maybe..


Sorry Rock....

This was and is a discussion about 98L and the potential formation and effects...

For some reason we have to hear about JB's prediction or possibilities about a major hitting the Texas coast...




true.... got side track here in the thread somewhat. :D
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#128 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:21 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:As posted much earlier about this area there just isn't enough time for it to develop into much if at all. Between the Shear and its proximity to land it just won't have time to become much more than a heavy rain maker for the N and NW Gulf Coasts.

I still think the one to watch is the stubborn low embedded in the TW east of the Antilles. When a system can hold its own through that much dry air it gets my attention especially as it gets closer to the islands at the same time as the MJO is moving in. I still believe it could be a Florida problem down the road.


Not if it develops further north and east.
But that has yet to happen.Right now it's window of opprotunity is closing.And convection seems to be decreasing right now.We'll see though,things can change quickly in the tropics.
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#129 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:41 pm

Could we possibly see an overnight flare up?
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#130 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:54 pm

98L is taking some pretty heafty windshear of 20-30kts and the NHC is saying they couldn't find a surface circulation. The shear is going to have to abate and the thunderstorms associated with the surface trough must stay over water in order for anything to happen. However a northward movement and some storms firing could cause a surface circulation to form farther out over water. So it's just one of those things where you gotta just wait and see what happens. I think we'll see mostly a northern movment and the trough staying close to land. It does look like a possible big rain maker for the texas and maybe other parts of the gulf coast. IMO

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH VERY NEAR
THE MEXICAN COAST...CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...
AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...AS
THIS DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WATER.
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#131 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:06 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:



Nah, the discussions are legit. I think JB is seeing a set-up for a more westernly tracks this year. Last two years show a trend... maybe..


Sorry Rock....

This was and is a discussion about 98L and the potential formation and effects...

For some reason we have to hear about JB's prediction or possibilities about a major hitting the Texas coast...
I don't think anyone said JB was expecting a major to hit the TX coast anywhere on this thread...
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#132 Postby Jim Cantore » Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:
ROCK wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:LOL, I'm tired of JB threatning the Western GOM with teasers, or is EWG spinning his discussions? :lol:



Nah, the discussions are legit. I think JB is seeing a set-up for a more westernly tracks this year. Last two years show a trend... maybe..


Sorry Rock....

This was and is a discussion about 98L and the potential formation and effects...

For some reason we have to hear about JB's prediction or possibilities about a major hitting the Texas coast...
I don't think anyone said JB was expecting a major to hit the TX coast anywhere on this thread...


I dont think you can predict the track of a non existant storm :wink:
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#133 Postby HouTXmetro » Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:41 pm

convection back on the increase bases on latest imagery.

Image
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#134 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jul 24, 2006 11:46 pm

Chances for development are starting to slowly decrease as the shear increases and the system gets closer to land.
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#135 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:00 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Chances for development are starting to slowly decrease as the shear increases and the system gets closer to land.


The disturbance has been "inland" all day per some posters so how can it be closer to land? Anyway, to be honest with you it looks like it's the same general area as this morning except maybe a little further north.
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#136 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:26 am

Now we see something interesting going on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
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#137 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:42 am

It does seems that this low is over land now. Winds are coming out of the south and SEE over in Tampico and Mataromos. NWS is playing a 1009mb low inland now on that satellite. That's not to say a LLC still can't develop offshore, but that's becoming less likely now.
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#138 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:45 am

I've changed my mind from earlier. It looks like 98L will stay as 98L, chances for development are now probably near slim.
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#139 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jul 25, 2006 12:55 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:I've changed my mind from earlier. It looks like 98L will stay as 98L, chances for development are now probably near slim.


I'm also beginning to lean that way, I've dropped it's chances from 35% to 10%
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#140 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Jul 25, 2006 1:41 am

People this system has been zotted by land. The trough axis has moved about a degree from the coast. In the convection that was over the ocean is slowly moving westward. By tomarrow midday there should not be hardly anything of this system over the BOC. NO CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT!!!
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