Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[LAwxrgal]

It feels weird seeing a typhoon on course to hit an island I'm so familiar with from countless hours playing Battlefield 2 on a map of this atoll

Not just any typhoon....a massive super typhoon...if I was on Wake Island I would leave NOW! JMO Find the first flight out of there and get on it pronto!

[bostonseminole]

It feels weird seeing a typhoon on course to hit an island I'm so familiar with from countless hours playing Battlefield 2 on a map of this atoll

Not just any typhoon....a massive super typhoon...if I was on Wake Island I would leave NOW! JMO Find the first flight out of there and get on it pronto!

well I am not sure if there are many flights.. I think they will have to call in a special to pick up the 40+ people living there.

[bostonseminole]

steady

[bostonseminole]

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z AUG TO 020000Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE WEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND. THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, INDUCING A SLOW NORTH-
WESTWARD TURN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF GFDN, NCEP GFS,
JTYM, JGSM, NOGAPS, EGRR, AND TCLAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO, WITH TCLAPS AND JGSM DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
C. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INCREASED
UPPER LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF STY 01C IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, AS STY 01C BEGINS
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AFTER TAU 48, OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE, ALLOWING FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 272014Z SSMI/S PASS AND
CURRENT CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. BEYOND TAU 72, STY 01C IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE FOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE. THE DYNAMIC
AIDS DIVERGE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS WEAKNESS, WITH NOGAPS, EGRR AND
GFDN DEPICTING A DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN. IN CONTRAST, THE GFS
DEPICTS A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND A MORE GRADUAL TURN. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FAVORS THE NOGAPS/EGRR/GFDN SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
NNNN

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 03:00 UTC 28 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 16.5N 177.1E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 16.4N 173.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 300000UTC 16.6N 170.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 310000UTC 17.5N 167.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 06:00 UTC 28 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 16.3N 176.7E GOOD
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH

FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 16.4N 173.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 300600UTC 17.1N 170.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 310600UTC 19.0N 167.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[P.K.]

And PK, do they ever change the forecast/intensity on the 3hr position fixes?

The forecast is only updated every six hours hence the 21, 45, and 69 hour forecasts given. The analysis of the TC is however updated every 3 hours, or in the case if it is near Japan they update the position on the map every hour.

The RSMC Tokyo typhoon model now takes it to 871hPa still with just 146kt winds..... The last global model (JMA) I saw run from them agreed with their forecast however.

There are also a few models available from the KMA, and also at least a typhoon model from the CMA.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Seems that Wake Island is next...200 semi-permanent contractors are being evacuated.

How's the surfing in Hawaii?

[jimvb]

Is this thing headed for Japan? That's what the GFS seems to say, and it right now is the only model in town. It may not happen. But if it does, it would be some odyssey, forming near Hawaii and going all the way across the Pacific to strike Tokyo two weeks from now.

The biggest odyssey of them all would be a storm forming south of Costa Rica (or even in the GOM and cross over) and going all the way across the Pacific to strike Japan or China.

[JonathanBelles]

what do yall say is the corect intesity at this point?

[WxGuy1]

what do yall say is the corect intesity at this point?

"correct intensity"? Who's to say anyone's "guess" here (most of which rely solely on 1km vis/IR/wv satellite imagery from the web) is any better than the official analysis? I'm not sure why people think they can get the "real" intensity of a storm by examining it on a website for 2 minutes, esp. when there are agencies that spend hours on such an analysis... Yes, there is some subjectivity in determining storm intensity when in-situ observations are absent (i.e. when we rely on remote sensing like satellites), but I'll stick w/ the folks whose job it is to deal with these storms (unless I want to spend a good amount of time coming up with my own intensity analysis, though I realize that they likely have considerably more data than I have). Just my 2 cents.

[mtm4319]

what do yall say is the corect intesity at this point?

Looking at the MTSAT posted on page 5, I guessed about 130 knots (1-min), then I went over to Weather Underground and saw they estimate the same thing.



Wake Island is the island directly between the "9 PM Wed" and "9 AM Thu" forecast positions. They also think it will re-intensity to category 5 strength, although I'm not sure what conversion factor they're using.

[weunice]

Heh ... this is the coolest thing all season and nary a soul is here to see it ... dare I break the silence and title a thread "Record Breaking Typhoon in Pacific?"



Nah ....

[P.K.]

No change to the intensity forecast.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 16.2N 175.2E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 16.9N 171.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 301800UTC 18.2N 168.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 311800UTC 20.3N 165.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The red ring around the eye is intect...With 85h data as of a few hours showing a full circle eyewall. This thing is bad!

I say 140-145 knots still.

[KBBOCA]

Heh ... this is the coolest thing all season and nary a soul is here to see it ... dare I break the silence and title a thread "Record Breaking Typhoon in Pacific?"



Nah ....

LOL....

Wow... so glad I popped over to this thread. What an amazing typhoon. It will be interesting to see if Wake Island survives and if we get any verified weather obs from there.

[Gorky]

This truly is the Energizer Bunny of tropical cyclones

[whereverwx]

WOW... its been 5 billion years since I've seen a sat loop of this storm.

[JonathanBelles]

that loop clearly shows wake island in the sights of ioke

[WindRunner]

Thought you guys might like to see this . . . if you want to save it though, do it quick as the link may not last that much longer.

250m MODIS image

EDIT: since I've posted they've already put up a new image that only has half the storm in it . . . anyway, just watch the link. They might have another pass between 01Z and 02Z tonight, as they did the same two-pass thing last night.