Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

[Droop12]

I could be wrong but I think the llc is close to the North Coast of Cuba right now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

looking at the visible and the water vapor loops, it does appear that the center may be trying to relocate to the north. Actually, it looked like it was trying to relocate to the NE, just off the coast to my eyes. I also noticed the location of the UL and the way it was diving down from the north of the new(?) center and heading towards the SW. The ridge seemed to be closing off behind the ULL and the movement of all the clouds is east to west above Ernesto. From just a layman's eye, I would expect Ernesto to start going NW from this new LLC center location for a very short time and then be bumping into that ridge wall pretty fast. I expect a WNW to almost directly W movement shortly if Ernesto joins in with the same movement as those clouds to the NW of him. That UL "space" could be filled in by Ernesto and then the rotation of the UL may "kick" Ernesto to follow its more western movement along the northern periphery of the UL and the east to west motion of the ridge boundery cloud flow.
As soon as the UL's influence wanes however, as it continues its fast escape to the SW, then Ernesto will be into a more WNW pattern again, solely relying on the weak ridge periphery to guide it. He will then go back to teh stair stepping pattern of WNW to NW to WNW, staying in the straits and strengthening very fast. I expect him to clip the southernmost part of Florida and still be heading NW, barely make it back to the GOM before turning north to ride the coast for a very short time, then heading NNE through a large portion of the state, emerging just south of Jax.
In other words, a reforming center to NE of current location to just off the coast.
NW movement for a very short time quickly turning to WNW and then W.
Movement then stepping between W and WNW as it stays just to the N of the Cuban coastline.
About 1/2 down the length of Cuba it then begins a more NW to WNW few jogs before beginning just a NW path.
Clipping far south Florida and reemerging in the gulf briefly before taking the N turn.
Taking a nearly northerly path that becomes more NNE when he hits I4.
Exiting the state just south of Jax.

I'm not sure if any model shows that path, but that is my last call. Left of the consensus at first, but out to the east of N FL coast in the end anyway.

[stormtruth]

Until the storm is back in an area where we can fly through the center again I don't think we be sure what it's doing

True, but we can make lots of erroneous speculations and guesstimates.

[Stormavoider]

Stormavoider -- Try and learn to shorten your links, or try http://www.tinyurl.com


This is a good back up for images.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html

Why, It's not so big that it extends the page size. By leaving it intact, it allows the clicker to edit numframes if the have a lower speed ISP.

[fci]

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.

That's from the 5 AM disco, the 11 had it as a Cat 1 tops. backing off form a 2 or 3.

[ConvergenceZone]

I can't wait for the 2:00 pm update!!! I bet we will see some changes.

[westmoon]

stormtruth,

True, but we can make lots of erroneous speculations and guesstimates.

isn't that what we do anyway???

[Hurricaneman]

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
I didnt see this from earlier, and it doesnt sound good.

That's from the 5 AM disco, the 11 had it as a Cat 1 tops. backing off form a 2 or 3.

I believe they were showing worst case scenerio

[jaxfladude]

This may have been asked before, I have been out all morning.

When will Ernesto be exiting Cuba?

in less than 2 hours it looks like..A Met said that earlier

On time according the forecasts or later/earlier than forecasted?

[bayoubebe]

Who is the BAMD and why is there forecast line showing a La/MS border landfall?

That seems "loopy" to me.

This might tell you about the model, bayoubebe...as well as some others.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

Very helpful and saved.

thanks.

[Hurricaneman]

This may have been asked before, I have been out all morning.

When will Ernesto be exiting Cuba?

in less than 2 hours it looks like..A Met said that earlier

On time according the forecasts or later/earlier than forecasted?

sounds a touch earlier then their forecast, if the center has in fact relocated

[BensonTCwatcher]

I actually expected this to look ALOT WORSE when it exited the coast. The fact that the convection is so strong is not good news at all. I think Sanibel and others are right. This may intensify quite rapidly soon...

I agree, I thought this would be devoid of convection over the center, and then get going.

[cpdaman]

anyone really know there the hell the center is does it have one that can be viewed anywhere

could the center by in the middle of eastern cuba mountains

or is it really relocated, anyone have a link that makes this more obvious

sorry just frustrated

ron jon that was an excellent comment about the steering flow

[jaxfladude]

This may have been asked before, I have been out all morning.

When will Ernesto be exiting Cuba?

in less than 2 hours it looks like..A Met said that earlier

On time according the forecasts or later/earlier than forecasted?

sounds a touch earlier then their forecast, if the center has in fact relocated

In your opinion is that worse in the case that it gives "Ernesto" more of chance to get stronger before any landfall on Florida?

[gatorcane]

looks like it is moving pretty solidly NW based on my vis sat observations....

[chris_fit]

There is absolutely no way this storm is going out-to-sea over the next 24-36 hrs. High pressure is building at both the low and mid-levels off the east coast of FL. Based on this situation, I would expect more of a W-NW movement over the next day or so.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

I agree... but remember when few days ago "This things is NO WAY going to FL"

[JtSmarts]

Bryan Norcross seems to think Ernie will exit Cuba sooner rather than later. You can watch his hourly updates here. http://cbs4.com/

[gatorcane]

one thing that is interesting to note is that if you look at the "banding features" trying to develop north of the center over the FL straits, you can see the power of the warm waters there as the convection is firing and tapping the energy.

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like it is moving pretty solidly NW based on my vis sat observations....

Having a hard time seeing the LLC..May be a wave again...FOR NOW

[Steve]

Seems like a resonable possibility that the broad center has a few spins to it. That's what I get. Looks like one off the coast, one on land and possibly one moving out to the west across the island (though that may be a trick of the clouds). Anyway, circulation is still there and while this won't be a Cat 4 any time soon, it's well worth keeping an eye on.