TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[CocoCreek]

It's kind of funny that all the warnings/watches and such have all been discontinued down here in So. FL and yet we are just starting to experience the windiest and rainiest conditions yet with this system...far more than anything we saw yesterday and overnight. So the general public thinks were in the clear just because an organized system doesn't threaten anymore according to NHC standards but they are still in for some very squally and dangerous driving weather and will of course get caught going out to the mall in it!

[flhurricaneguy]

Any possibility it will strengthen over the lake?

that is always a possibility, BUT WITHOUT A DEFINED CENTER IT COULD BE HARD

[cpdaman]

it's tuff to tell if forward speed picked up or if a more egg like center has just tilted/rotated to the left

either way north palm beach and martin county about to get it's worst weather yet

lake worth peir barometer 29.71 and fowey rock to the south sustained 32 kts still so expect some gusts near the beach of 40-45 mph

[BensonTCwatcher]

Ha, I told you exiting FL between WPB and Ft Pierce...

Trapping, I hope not...recurving east of the NHC track, I hope so... Both are possible. Also still possible is a Cat 1 HC into SC. I know what the latest guidance says, but look at the synoptics and it is still possible. 2 things would eliminate the possibilities. If it gets blocked while still over FL and the front "aborbs" it i.e. becomes extra-tropical, or if it slips around teh ridge periphery and tracks east of the NHC track up the Peninsula. Both of those mean a lot of rain and flooding in FL.

[flhurricaneguy]

this is crazy my family woke up and thought it was over..... but it hasnt even started!

[HurricaneHunter914]

My family was wondering the same thing.

[decgirl66]

I am wondering the same thing! What is up? Looks like a typical overcast day in Central Fla! I am off at 4:30, will be driving from Lake Mary to Geneva, anyone close to here got an idea of what to expect aroung that time?

[storms in NC]

can any promets let me know if i am on crack

is it me or could this thing be blocked from going up to the carolinas and is there any indications of this being a possibility that u can see this thing kind of stalling off of canaveral

Was it forecasted to stall, I must have missed that memo. I hope someone answers your post I would like to know the same thing

Not to stall till NC-Va I think that is what they said. But thing have changed in the last few hours and I am try to get a hand on it for I was away for a few hours.They may have to put the hurricane watch back up for us.

[Colossus]

Looks like the Ft. Myers/Naples area is just getting hammered with rain....

[HurricaneHunter914]

The worst should be here by 8 PM according to Tom Terry.

[cinlfla]

Decgirl, I live in Titusville which is close to mims and I know Geneva is not far from Mims I am seeing the sun peak out over here, as far as 3 hours from now not sure but I would bet its probably not going to be doing anything but maybe a little rain from the bands

[Wthrman13]

So there can be enhanced "convection" and an increase in "organization" but as long as it is overland it will weaken as to winds?

More or less. What also happens over land is the circulation is cut off from the source of heat and moisture from the sea surface, which is what ultimately drives the storm. So any enhancement in convection and organization is only temporary as long as the center stays over land. In rare cases, the mid-level vortex of the TC can persist long after the low-level vortex decays, as in the case of Hurricane Danny in 1997, and upon exiting the coast over the Atlantic (even a little bit before), the storm quickly regained a low-level circulation and tropical storm status.

[cpdaman]

it was never forecast to stall moving off fl peninsula i was just wondering if it was a reasonable possibility given the uncertainties of this storm's history

but as "storms in nc" noted it may be indeed doing the opposite and picking up speed

[storms in NC]

Look at this going NE at a fast pace.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like it's picking up speed and is responding to the steering flow(s)

[BensonTCwatcher]

I also noticed that TAFB has the front stalling out rather that pushing east. THe fast it moves from here on out the better for the Carolinas...less time over water... too much fwd speed to spin up.

[Sanibel]

The rain here was moderate. But we were on the very west fringe of the storm where it was almost nothing.

I think Ernesto did a slight stalling slow down over the last 12 hours but has noticeably improved in structure lately over land.

Could still have something left.

[storms in NC]

Glad you all didn't get that much rain. I know Ft Myers very well Mom and dad lived there for 30 years. and it can be a mess after a big rain on the roads.

[Sanibel]

That half arc of a center seen over Okeechobee could mean it still has something waiting to get over water.

[BensonTCwatcher]

That half arc of a center seen over Okeechobee could mean it still has something waiting to get over water.

A bunch of curved bands and strong convection on the east side would not be a good sign