Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

What ever it is it is weak in west of the convection. Not enough data to say if its a LLC.,,,It could be. As of now no cyclone should develop over the next 24 hours at least.

that is also .. true.. it is small.. but imbeded in the overall wave axis.. which is important..

[Aric Dunn]

In addition to my post above, based on visible satelite, it looks as though in the dead middle of the convection mass, there appears to be rotation, probably mid level, but still rotation that wasnt there before, and I think with improving conditions and persistent convection, this could become the center...just my 2 cents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

EDIT: actually, here's a better visible loop, closer in on what i was talking about

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

which convection .. mass.. it cover.. hundreds of mile and there is no real discernible area..

[cheezyWXguy]

In addition to my post above, based on visible satelite, it looks as though in the dead middle of the convection mass, there appears to be rotation, probably mid level, but still rotation that wasnt there before, and I think with improving conditions and persistent convection, this could become the center...just my 2 cents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

EDIT: actually, here's a better visible loop, closer in on what i was talking about

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

which convection .. mass.. it cover.. hundreds of mile and there is no real discernible area..

look in the center of the second link i posted..in case it doesnt work, take the link i posted and copy it to the web address bar

[cpdaman]

link not working CHeezywxguy

how bout some co-ordinates

[Aric Dunn]

In addition to my post above, based on visible satelite, it looks as though in the dead middle of the convection mass, there appears to be rotation, probably mid level, but still rotation that wasnt there before, and I think with improving conditions and persistent convection, this could become the center...just my 2 cents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

EDIT: actually, here's a better visible loop, closer in on what i was talking about

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

which convection .. mass.. it cover.. hundreds of mile and there is no real discernible area..

look in the center of the second link i posted..in case it doesnt work, take the link i posted and copy it to the web address bar

does not work.. just give me coordinates

[cheezyWXguy]

sorry about that...look at 22.5N 67W

[cpdaman]

nmind

i see it 23 66.5 or so to be more precise interesting find

[Aric Dunn]

sorry about that...look at 22.5N 67W

mid level.. se wind still blowing thru that area.. but its still near enough to the wave and trough that i guess any where is this general area..

but i still am sticking with.. the other are.. for now till something begins to show somewhere else..

[cheezyWXguy]

sorry about that...look at 22.5N 67W

mid level.. se wind still blowing thru that area.. but its still near enough to the wave and trough that i guess any where is this general area..

but i still am sticking with.. the other are.. for now till something begins to show somewhere else..

Yes, it is mid level. I think I posted that before, but im not sure...that LLC is interesting but I dont know how it will hold up against the outflow boundary moving towards it

[Aric Dunn]

will see.. i think its going to be just fine.. i would think otherwise.. but there is convection firing near it.. and that little thing is not that important.. the where it is. and the overall wave axis...
but good..noticing that. midlevel .. you never know..

[Aric Dunn]

so here is the thing.. wxman57 is going to come back and say look further north..

you could but dont think you will find anything till maybe tomorrow.. as the low from the south moves north .

a lucky for him.. it will be night time and we wont have our visible.. so i wont beable... show.. him anything.. but it will be fun trying but we all know what down there.. and so does the NHC.. which still talked about the area near the bahamas.. more than further.. north..
but either way time will tell..


happy hunting tonight.. its going to be difficult at best to locate anything.. unless something really starts going tonight..

[Aric Dunn]

oooooohhhh.. look at the shear .. near the Se bahamas is..

[jrod]

The recon flights are suppose to go north about where ULL is now(where wxman57 suggested a hybrid low earlier in the day), however the last few images for the day(VIS satellite) show what maybe something becoming organized just north and east of Hispanola(where Aric has been pin pointing). It looks like we finally have something worth watching.

[Aric Dunn]

The recon flights are suppose to go north about where ULL is now(where wxman57 suggested a hybrid low earlier in the day), however the last few images for the day(VIS satellite) show what maybe something becoming organized just north of Haiti(where Aric has been pin pointing). It looks like we finally have something worth watching.

yep.. sounds about right..

one thing to note.. there is nothing! at the surface that far north..

[cpdaman]

last few visible images show me the ULL is working down to surface at 30 N 68 W and when all the moisture to the south wraps in it will be subtropical storm time (maybe) ha ha

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

ARic what are you using to decide if anything has worked down to surface, where are you getting the wind data and how updated (por favor)

[jrod]

The recon flights are suppose to go north about where ULL is now(where wxman57 suggested a hybrid low earlier in the day), however the last few images for the day(VIS satellite) show what maybe something becoming organized just north of Haiti(where Aric has been pin pointing). It looks like we finally have something worth watching.

yep.. sounds about right..

one thing to note.. there is nothing! at the surface that far north..

Not yet, but there is a possibility of something firing up tonight and tommorow as it interacts with the front has been my guess all day.

I find the shortwave IR usefull in finding weak circulations at night.

[Aric Dunn]

last few visible images show me the ULL is working down to surface at 30 N 68 W and when all the moisture to the south wraps in it will be subtropical storm time (maybe) ha ha

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

ARic what are you using to decide if anything has worked down to surface, where are you getting the wind data and how updated (por favor)

first of.. all visible.. you can clearly see the low level clouds moving east to west (even now)

second what ever surface obs, microwave passes.. anything i can find.. i dont have all the cool things that pro mets may have access to but i can .. make do..

[Cyclone1]

So wait, the top half of this thing is becoming subtropical, while the bottom half is becoming tropical?

[Aric Dunn]

The recon flights are suppose to go north about where ULL is now(where wxman57 suggested a hybrid low earlier in the day), however the last few images for the day(VIS satellite) show what maybe something becoming organized just north of Haiti(where Aric has been pin pointing). It looks like we finally have something worth watching.

yep.. sounds about right..

one thing to note.. there is nothing! at the surface that far north..

Not yet, but there is a possibility of something firing up tonight and tommorow as it interacts with the front has been my guess all day.

I find the shortwave IR usefull in finding weak circulations at night.

yeah .. the frontal low is completly different than this system.. and yeah shortwave is good as long as there is no sirus clouds.. then its really hard..

[Aric Dunn]

So wait, the top half of this thing is becoming subtropical, while the bottom half is becoming tropical?

umm.. well. there is some debate.. NHC never said subtropical.. but with the upper low MAybe maybe working to the surface.. then probably.. sub trop..

but the Low near the bahamas.. is tropical.. it is the wave from the other day still hanging around..

if either one does anything .. is the question