Alex Advisories

[Opal storm]

I guess I was wrong about it being downgraded later today

[The Dark Knight]

Finally........Everyone can take a deep breath!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Definitely interesting to note those surface winds. Either way, heavy rain and dangerous rip currents are the primary issues along the Carolina coast whether this is a storm or not.

Just got a tropical storm Alex now with 40 mph winds. Center is still at 80 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC.

Jim

[The Dark Knight]

Finally........Everyone can take a deep breath!!!

[Opal storm]

Everybody,get out your hurricane tracking charts

[lilbump3000]

I wonder if it will get any stronger than what they think. It wasnt forecasted to become a tropical storm for another 18-22 more hours.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting, in 6 hours Alex went from 30 mph to 40 mph. I think being stationary has help a lot.

[wxman57]

Don't get too excited. This is a bogus upgrade if I ever saw one. 41kts at flight level in a squall well-removed from several weak centers does not make it a TS. That 41 kts is at flight level - 1500 ft - and it needs to be reduced to sea level, as winds at the surface are about 80% of the winds at FL. That means maybe 32-33 kts at the surface. But the plane has been estimating no more than 25 kts at the surface on the reports. So this upgrade does not really indicate any trend. It looks as pathetic as it did this morning.

I think Jim Cantore's "Angry Seas" comment got to them.

[The Dark Knight]

I dunno.....????? It will be interesting.....

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's right over the warm gulf stream waters. That kind of helps. Any quick intensification seems unlikely because of the northerly shear. The big story will be heavy rains and very dangerous rip currents along the coast from Maryland down through Florida. If you encounter a rip current, swim parallel to the beach until you get out of the rip current, then either call for help or swim toward shore. Never panic, that's the worse thing to do in a rip current. If not an experienced swimmer, best bet is just stay out of the water altogether.

More updates throughout the afternoon.

Jim

[Brent]

I wonder if it will get any stronger than what they think. It wasnt forecasted to become a tropical storm for another 18-22 more hours.

NHC says strengthening is possible.

[Stormsfury]

Don't get too excited. This is a bogus upgrade if I ever saw one. 41kts at flight level in a squall well-removed from several weak centers does not make it a TS. That 41 kts is at flight level - 1500 ft - and it needs to be reduced to sea level, as winds at the surface are about 80% of the winds at FL. That means maybe 32-33 kts at the surface. But the plane has been estimating no more than 25 kts at the surface on the reports. So this upgrade does not really indicate any trend. It looks as pathetic as it did this morning.

I think Jim Cantore's "Angry Seas" comment got to them.

You called it in another thread, Chris ... with regards to the upgrade if they found 40-45 kts FL winds.

[abajan]

Finally........Everyone can take a deep breath!!!

I've been waiting to exhale for an eternity!

[vacanechaser]

[quote="wxman57"] But the plane has been estimating no more than 25 kts at the surface on the reports.
/quote]


TRUE,, UNTIL THE LAST VORTEX MESSAGE... 35KT..

[The Dark Knight]

Hahahahahahaha.... I hear ya Abajan...

[Stormchaser16]

Wxman.... last vortex message had 35Kt winds at the SFC.

Although i do tend to agree with you, there is more then one developed center, and it doesnt look too healthy, nonetheless, it IS worthy of upgrading it to a minimal TS.

[DerekOrtt]

That is an estimate of 35KT at the surface.

However, those estimates if there is an error, it tends to be on the low side. Therefore, best to take the path of least regret and go ahead and call this a storm. Can always correct it in the best track.

P.S. This is much better than Grace from last year, lol

[corpusbreeze]

is having a tough time wrapping around the center. A lot of talk about multiple centers but there is clearly one center and it is very exposed north of the heavy convection. It does not like like it will be wrapping around the center anytime soon.

Today is last day in which 90L can get it together, and it does not look like it is making any real effort. Dry air has hurt this system the whole time across the gulf. Oh well the CV season looks to be heating up.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm.......

[vacanechaser]

That is an estimate of 35KT at the surface.

However, those estimates if there is an error, it tends to be on the low side. Therefore, best to take the path of least regret and go ahead and call this a storm. Can always correct it in the best track.

P.S. This is much better than Grace from last year, lol

OR EVEN HENRI.... LOL...