Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[BigA]

It's still an invest, and doesnt look so bad with thunderstorms flaring off to the east of the Central Yucatan. We'll see what happens tomorrow and Monday

[KWT]

I think we are going to have to watch this one closely as it comes out from the Yucatan, its actually not all that different to Erin and I think its going to have a reasonable shot at development tomorrow actually though there probably wil lbe some shear ther eis plenty of moisture and heat content to use still.

[HURAKAN]

452
ABNT20 KNHC 230929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB/RHOME

[HURAKAN]

Don't know if it's associated to 94L but the central GOM is looking interesting.

[xironman]

From the look of the SWIR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html, looks like whatever was there yesterday is ready to pop off the north coast of the Yucatan this morning, maybe about 89W 21N. Should be a good chance to see if it is going to do anything before DMIN.

[Frank P]

been watching the convection in the central GOM build up over the night... looks like the general flow off to the NNW... you can see the leading edge on the NOLA radar loops... stuff is moving pretty quickly too I might add... GOM is disturbed but has no organization atm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Portastorm]

From the look of the SWIR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html, looks like whatever was there yesterday is ready to pop off the north coast of the Yucatan this morning, maybe about 89W 21N. Should be a good chance to see if it is going to do anything before DMIN.

It's also very evident from this loop that the upper level winds -- at the moment -- in the WGOM would blow to bits anything that attempts to organize.

[xironman]

I would tend to say the same thing, but the NHC said

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS
MORNING.

The shear is not too bad according to this link http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html, as long as development stays away from the BOC. Also looking to tomorrows diurnal maximum, the upper air is not too bad in the central gulf http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_200_024m.gif

[Frank P]

not sure if the C GOM convection will hold up but if it does and continues on a NNW track NOLA and SE LA could get some pretty good tropical rains out of this.... and probably make bayou Steve happy

[Portastorm]

Eh .... I'm very unimpressed with how this system appears this morning. Looks nothing more than a strong tropical wave. I think the real action is out in the central Atlantic.

[xironman]

Your probably right, the only west winds are right at 90W, http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas13.png, which would be too far west to get under the better upper air.

[Sanibel]

Surface feature about to exit Yucatan into shear.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Just Insane. I wake up to 3 invests and a depression.
Wow.

Anyway, the NHC said that upper level winds
are favorable, which means that this could be
a problem for the WGOM.

Texas has been hit very hard with
flooding this year, from erin, humberto,
and other events. This is not good news
for people in those flood saturated areas.

[HURAKAN]

Eh .... I'm very unimpressed with how this system appears this morning. Looks nothing more than a strong tropical wave. I think the real action is out in the central Atlantic.

It has been over land. What would you expect to find this morning?

[Thunder44]

Dr. Lyons suggested this morning that area may split into two pieces. The convection over the Central GOM has a MLC that maybe trying to work down to the surface now, but may not have much time to develop before reaching the Upper TX and LA coasts. Another piece over the Yucatan now, may move towards South Texas tomorrow and develop.

[CrazyC83]

Just Insane. I wake up to 3 invests and a depression.
Wow.

Anyway, the NHC said that upper level winds
are favorable, which means that this could be
a problem for the WGOM.

Texas has been hit very hard with
flooding this year, from erin, humberto,
and other events. This is not good news
for people in those flood saturated areas.

That is a true statement even if this does not develop into anything.

[tailgater]

Just Insane. I wake up to 3 invests and a depression.
Wow.

Anyway, the NHC said that upper level winds
are favorable, which means that this could be
a problem for the WGOM.

Texas has been hit very hard with
flooding this year, from erin, humberto,
and other events. This is not good news
for people in those flood saturated areas.

NRL has 3 Invest and Jerry and TD
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[attallaman]

been watching the convection in the central GOM build up over the night... looks like the general flow off to the NNW... you can see the leading edge on the NOLA radar loops... stuff is moving pretty quickly too I might add... GOM is disturbed but has no organization atm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

If those bands of rain showers hold together it looks like I'll receive more showers today here in Biloxi to add to those thunder boomers which came rolling through here during the early hours of this morning. My neighbor will be so happy that her ferns finally got watered.

[HURAKAN]

210
ABNT20 KNHC 231510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[wxman57]

As far as wind shear, I'd pay more attention to the water vapor loop than any shear maps. This disturbance is moving into some ripping southerly winds across the westerly Gulf (technical meteorological term). Yes, a weak low center could form before it moves inland by Tuesday. And if the wind in the squalls east of the highly-sheared low center are 40 mph, then the NHC could call it a TS. But there's not much chance of development beyond then. It's a squall and rough seas event for the NW Gulf lease areas whether or not it develops, and a heavy rain event for Texas in the making.

Whatever invest that is east of the Caribbean could be much more significant (too many to keep track of) as far as any real threat.