February 5-6: Super Tuesday Outbreak... 57 dead

[HarlequinBoy]

Good call Crazy!

Day 1


Tornado


Wind

[HarlequinBoy]

SVR for Ottawa County in Northwest Ohio until 245 AM ET.

At 1:22 AM (bedtime) it's 64 with a 61 dewpoint here. 68/62 in Greenville, MS.

[Bunkertor]

SWODY2 backshift to slight.

[CrazyC83]

Update is in about 45 minutes. Maybe an upgrade then? But I think they may wait for 1630Z.

[CrazyC83]

States voting today that are in the MDT area: Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee

[CrazyC83]

Breaking News:

HIGH RISK ISSUED!!!

[RL3AO]

405
ACUS01 KWNS 051242
SWODY1
SPC AC 051239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AR INTO
FAR SWRN TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK BUT
EXTENDING ENEWD INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE TN RIVER
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS
ENEWD INTO THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AN OUTBREAK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...INCLUDING LONG-LIVED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAXIMUM SEVERE THREAT AREA SHOULD THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE GULF COAST STATES LATER TONIGHT.

..SYNOPSIS

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EXTREME MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WIND FIELDS /H5 JET MAX IN EXCESS OF 90 KT...130+ KT AT H25/ WILL
SUSTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES/OH RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE FROM NRN TX
ACROSS OK. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
BACKBUILD/PERSIST WITHIN BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND ENHANCED
ASCENT NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SWD OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY.

SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER FAR NWRN TX AND IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
FURTHER AS IT LIFTS NEWD ALONG SURFACE FRONT INTO NRN AR BY LATE
TODAY AND INTO SRN IND LATER TONIGHT. AS UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS
EWD...DRY LINE/N-S SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SURGE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX/OK THIS MORNING AND SHIFT STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE FRONT
TRAILING FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN LIFT NWD SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. NET RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MOISTENING
WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

..MID SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES

EXPECT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INITIALLY ELEVATED...WILL
PERSIST AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD AHEAD OF WEAKENING IMPULSES IN
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. /REF LATEST SWOMCDS FOR NOWCASTS ACROSS THIS
AREA/. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED
LATER THIS MORNING WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER INCREASING RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
SOUNDING FROM LZK AND MODIFIED OUN SOUNDING INDICATE MLCIN IS
RELATIVELY WEAK ALREADY. ONCE CAPPING BREAKS FROM ERN OK INTO NRN
HALF OF AR/FAR SRN MO WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
RAMP UP QUICKLY.

APPEARS SRN/ERN AR INTO FAR NRN LA/WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY FREE OF MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
EARLY DAY ACTIVITY SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/MO.
THUS...AS MAIN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SPREAD EWD LATE
TODAY...ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE WITHIN MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK CIN. EXTREME SHEAR WITH SFC-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2 SUGGESTS STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ROTATION
AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ONCE THEY ROOT INTO DEEPLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE A LONG-LIVED
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. STORMS MAY TEND TO EVOLVE
INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE LATE THIS EVENING AS FRONT INTERACTS WITH
RICH GULF MOISTURE AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT.
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD GIVEN EXTREME
WIND FIELDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LEWP AND PRE-SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT.

..LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ENEWD INTO KY/OH RIVER VALLEY

EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE
WITHIN WEAK INSTABILITY AND SMALL CAP FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MO INTO
NRN KY/SWRN OH. SHEAR WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING IF
STORMS BEGIN ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. /REF UPCOMING
SWOMCD/. LATER TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE WITH LOW CENTER SHIFTING UP THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
KY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUESTIONABLE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...EXTREME SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
INFLOW TAPPING LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS WARRANTS PERSISTENT
RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES AND/OR WIND DAMAGE.

..EVANS.. 02/05/2008

[CrazyC83]

Tornado watch, probably PDS, coming:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN AR AND FAR ERN OK AND
SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051239Z - 051515Z

STRONG ASCENT UNDERWAY AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH AND IS REFLECTED IN
THE INCREASING WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ERN OK. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ABOVE THE CAP NOTED ON SHV/LIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS CINH CONTINUES TO DECREASE.

POTENT VEERING SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. MID LEVEL ROTATION ALREADY
EVIDENT WITH STORMS W OF FSM. AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO LOW 70S
MLCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

TORNADIC POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO WRN AR DURING
MORNING AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 14Z.

..HALES.. 02/05/2008

[CrazyC83]

Only the second time a HIGH risk has been issued in February, and the second earliest ever in the year (January 21, 1999 is the only one to take place earlier).

[CrazyC83]

Possible watch to the north, probably a Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN MO...S-CENTRAL/SWRN OH...NRN
THROUGH WRN KY...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN INDIANA...EXTREME SRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051245Z - 051445Z

POTENTIAL FOR MRGL SVR HAIL AND STG-SVR GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH
NEXT 3-4 HOURS...PRIMARILY NEAR AND S OF OH RIVER AND SHIFTING INTO
WRN/NRN KY. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS SHOULD BE LOCALLY
MAXIMIZED INVOF BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS MOVING EWD...AS PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND SHIFTS SLOWLY SEWD AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 12Z SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS SRN IL AND MO OZARKS. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NARROW BUT
FAVORABLE PLUME OF SFC THETAE IS EVIDENT...WITH THERMAL/MOIST AXES
NEARLY JUXTAPOSED JUST AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND FROM SWRN OH TO
BETWEEN PAH-HOP. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEW POINTS
MID-UPPER 50S F OVER OH AND N-CENTRAL/NERN KY...INCREASING TO LOW
60S F FARTHER SW. PRIND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY
AHEAD OF CONVECTION...WITH WEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION BY MIDMORNING. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE RAOBS SUGGEST VERY WEAK SBCINH
RESULTS...WITH EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC. EVEN THOUGH
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...MUCAPES 250-500 J/KG AMIDST
40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONTINUATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND INTERMITTENT SVR
POTENTIAL THEREWITH. CURRENT AREA OF STRONGEST CONVECTION -- W
SDF...MAY MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS SDF AREA EWD TOWARD
COUNTIES NEAR AND N OF LEX...AS IT INTERACTS WITH PROBABLE SUBTLE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY EARLIER CONVECTION NOW OVER
S-CENTRAL OH.

..EDWARDS.. 02/05/2008


ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

36699044 37178913 37728732 38318633 39088413 38718296
37928397 37428573 36648801 36498966

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 051251
ARZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-052045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

...A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/SOUTHERN MO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

A STRONG LATE WINTER MID AND UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM NOW MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SUPPORT AN
OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST EARLY
THIS MORNING...AND WILL UNDERGO FURTHER HEATING AND MOISTENING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS BEGINNING EARLY
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...WITH THE
THREAT SPREADING STEADILY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG TRACK OF A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL QUICKLY PRODUCE TORNADOES GIVEN COMBINATION
OF EXTREME WINDS ALOFT AND VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. STORMS MAY
FORM INTO A LINE AND CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER AND TN RIVER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT...WITH NORTHERN END SPREADING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT OF LONGER-LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING
LINES. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...WITH ADDED
THREAT OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT EVENTS.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS.. 02/05/2008

$$

[CrazyC83]

Definitely we need to watch Arkansas in the late morning and early afternoon. The focal point of the early part of the outbreak is also voting today.

[HarlequinBoy]

Where I am in the eastern part of the high risk it's sunny, in the mid 60s, with dewpoints around 63.

[CrazyC83]

Awaiting the next watch - it should be PDS Tornado Watch 34 over W Arkansas, E Oklahoma, NW Louisiana, extreme SW Missouri and NE Texas.

[CrazyC83]

Where I am in the eastern part of the high risk it's sunny, in the mid 60s, with dewpoints around 63.

Definitely bad signs. I wouldn't be surprised to see the risks expand east and northeast at 1630Z, with the HIGH covering all of West Tennessee, northern Mississippi and perhaps extreme SW Kentucky.

[KatDaddy]

Another very dangerous event will unfold today. I hope no fatalities occur today. Everyone in and near the high risk area better have an eye to the sky. I agree the next watch will likely be a PDS.

[CrazyC83]

Another very dangerous event will unfold today. I hope no fatalities occur today. Everyone in and near the high risk area better have an eye to the sky. I agree the next watch will likely be a PDS.

With parts of it in the High Risk area, it is almost certain to be a PDS. Definitely the potential exists for a major tornado outbreak (although some high risks have busted). This may have historical implications too as it could turn the entire Presidential election upside down as well.

Looks like the worst should miss New Orleans and Mardi Gras though.

[JonathanBelles]

Stay Safe everyone!

[CrazyC83]

One question: should schools in the threat area be closed today or dismissed now? It is 8 am so most schools are probably just starting or the buses are out now (schools typically start between 7:30 and 9 am)

[simplykristi]

Stay safe, everyone!

We've had thunderstorms and temps in the mid 30s here this morning.

Kristi