SWIO: Tropical Depression HONDO (TC 16S)

[Cyclone1]

*looks at page*

Where have I been?!?!

Wow... maybe I should look at other oceans from time to time...

[Squarethecircle]

I told you!

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 090013

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 0000 UTC :
16.1S / 85.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SO: 250 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/09 12 UTC: 17.2S/86.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.5S/86.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.2S/86.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.6S/86.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.6S/85.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 23.3S/84.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0, CI=6.0+

HONDO SHOWS A POWERFUL EYE PATTERN WITH A VERY WELL DEFINED, CIRCULAR AND
LARGE SIZE EYE.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS REGULARLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM.


HONDO SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKER AT TAU 24H AS IT SHOULD BE OVER COOLER SST
AND UNDERGO A NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR STARTING MAINLY ON SUNDAY. BY THAT TIME
, THE MOTION SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT AS HONDO WILL HAVE WEAKER STEERING
FLOW.

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

[MiamiensisWx]

There's been a significant anticyclone at 100-300 mb over Hondo during the past ~24 hours, which has allowed the cyclone to maintain intensity or strengthen. Additionally, a shortwave trough to the south has enhanced a very nice divergence environment. Personally, I think Hondo has experienced two secondary peak intensities. The first peak occurred much earlier (probably 135 kt), while the second peak likely took place within the past several hours (similar winds, in my opinion). Hondo will probably maintain its strength over the next few hours, followed by weakening.

[Squarethecircle]

Again, I would estimate slightly higher at 140 knots. Also, it would be two peak intensities, not two secondary peaks.

[Squarethecircle]

Wow! Look at the visible!

[Coredesat]

Looks bizarre.

[Squarethecircle]

Intense, but yes, very bizarre.

[JonathanBelles]

How big is that eye?

[Coredesat]

I'd estimate about 35 nautical miles (the eye appears to be 0.6 degree of latitude in diameter).

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

It's Isabel 2003's eye in the South Indian Ocean!

[HURAKAN]

Looks great!!!

[HURAKAN]

Excellent picture!!!

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 091213

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HONDO)

2.A POSITION 2008/02/09 AT 1200 UTC :
17.4S / 85.9E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.0 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 190
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/02/10 00 UTC: 18.6S/86.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2008/02/10 12 UTC: 20.4S/86.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/02/11 00 UTC: 21.7S/85.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2008/02/11 12 UTC: 22.8S/84.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2008/02/12 00 UTC: 23.2S/82.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2008/02/12 12 UTC: 22.7S/81.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5, CI=6.0+

HONDO IS A SYMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFIEND 40NM DIAMETER EYE.
SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS LIGHTLY WARMED DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS,
WHAT EXPLAINS THE WEAKENING OF T.

IT SHOULD TRACKS SOUTHWARDS OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE EAST, TOWARDS A MIDLEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT
SHOULD CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN WEST TO NORTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OVER THIS TRACK, HONDO SHOULD GO ON WEAKENING OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN
26,5 CELSIUS DEGREES SOUTH OF 19 SOUTH) IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.

[HURAKAN]

Continues going strong!

[Squarethecircle]

WTF?!

I thought it was supposed to die or something. Alright, this is just bizarre.

Chalk another up for this storm. I bet all of you nothing else will even approach this awesomeness!

Also, the convective still looks VERY impressive.

[Crostorm]

[Squarethecircle]

Interesting that the convective shows practically the opposite of the microwave (in terms of the eyewall). Both show an intense storm.

[Squarethecircle]

Hondo appears to be slowly but steadily losing its shape. Weakening, I think, is slow, but there is definite weakening. I'd put intensity at 120-ish knots and weakening. It should hit an area of higher shear later today or tonight.


Edit: Hehe, nevermind about the shape losing thing. The convection is gradually dying out though. And the shear is still ahead.