Global model runs discussion

[windycity]

Thankyou, macrocane, i was just about ready to mention that. I am so tired of hearing that global warming is responcible for hurricanes, when some of the worst storm seasons happened long before it was even a name. (1890's-1930's)

[jcoffee]

I never said global warming is responsible for hurricanes. I said it will make the oceans more conducive to hurricanes for longer periods of time. It will also enable larger, more powerful hurricanes to be generated. But the bigger concerns is heat waves. Heat waves like the one in Europe in 2003 could kill 35,000 people in the U.S. in a week and they are going to become common! http://www.sciencenewsblog.com/blog/710101

[cheezyWXguy]

I never said global warming is responsible for hurricanes. I said it will make the oceans more conducive to hurricanes for longer periods of time. It will also enable larger, more powerful hurricanes to be generated. But the bigger concerns is heat waves. Heat waves like the one in Europe in 2003 could kill 35,000 people in the U.S. in a week and they are going to become common! http://www.sciencenewsblog.com/blog/710101

You're new here and that's great, but this is totally off-topic and shouldnt be discussed here. You should probably go preach your certainties of one of the most uncertain theories of one of the most inexact sciences elsewhere. In the mean time lets get back to what the models are showing.

[lonelymike]

I never said global warming is responsible for hurricanes. I said it will make the oceans more conducive to hurricanes for longer periods of time. It will also enable larger, more powerful hurricanes to be generated. But the bigger concerns is heat waves. Heat waves like the one in Europe in 2003 could kill 35,000 people in the U.S. in a week and they are going to become common! http://www.sciencenewsblog.com/blog/710101

Welcome to the board jcoffe

I would respectfully disagree about your hypthesis about global warming. There are many scientists who do not buy into the global warming theory. Now I realize some respected hurricane scientists such as Jeff Masters are strong believers others like Joe Bastardi are not. I think the issue has been hijacked by environmental fanatics who are using to push their agenda. More research is needed before a definite answer can be postulated.

[wxman57]

Let's stay on topic, folks. There's probably a thread here somewhere on global warming you can go back and forth on. If not, you can start one in the appropriate forum.

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

After staring at the models for about 5 min- I realize I have no the slightest idea on how to read them - I plan to be on the TX gulf coast Aug 4-7- any chances there could be something brewing between now and then?

[somethingfunny]

After staring at the models for about 5 min- I realize I have no the slightest idea on how to read them - I plan to be on the TX gulf coast Aug 4-7- any chances there could be something brewing between now and then?

Always a chance, but it seems more than likely that you'll be fine.

[wxman22]

Yea its LaLa land GFS but atleast it shows something of interest lol...

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF continues to show a weak to moderate reflection in the Atlantic.

[KWT]

Nothing much showing on the GFS other then some decent strength waves. ECM looks somewhat similar.

[cycloneye]

The Canadian has this in the MDR at 144 hours.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[SFLcane]

12z GFS...

[Scorpion]

Hehe, at least its something. Wow, thats a huge TD! It would gobble up the whole gulf

[Weatherfreak000]

Here is an example of the evolution of climatology moving into August.






Emphasis is moving away from the Western GOM slightly. The Central GOM has similar chances. Emphasis beginning to highly stress the Eastern GOM and even EC.


Model runs definitely seem to like this solution, all global models are breaking down the ridge to an extent following the monster CV wave development. Typically for me when you see this in the first week of August when we are in a La Nina pattern, it could mean the storms can usually get further East. We haven't seen a significant EC season in a long time. Forecasters seem to continuously forecast a hurricane event there because it seems like it hasn't happened in so long.




This is long range CMC, a model I look strongly at. Notice the ridge breaking down heavily in response to future Colin or Danielle. May be a telling sign for the future of hurricane season. I am beginning to wonder if the pattern of landfalls in general may be shifting dramatically Eastward.

[KWT]

I personally think both Bonnie and Alex have showed the dominant tracks this season towards land, with another track set off into the Atlantic. We will see a short term breakdown of the ridge but note the CMC/GFS always tend to overdo troughs and ridge breakdowns in the longer term in La Nina set-ups...though they did ok with Bonnie probably because they kept it weak. Later in the year and who knows there be enough of a trough to lift a system from where Bonnie is into the E.coast, its a fairly favoured track in La ninas of the past...

Anyway the 12z GFS shows multiple strong waves though, including one in 144hrs time down near the Caribbean. Also just keep an eye on the W.Atlantic as models do develop something out there, probably orginally cold cored. They are uncommon evolution though in La Nina and they don't tend to come off...

[srainhoutx]

I have seen others suggesting that the ECMWF favors a more westerly track of storms.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anders ... update.asp

[KWT]

Yeah the long range ECM does indeed favour a track into the Gulf from the Caribbean Sea which is interesting....in La Nina ECM will probably perform better in most situations.

[Weatherfreak000]

To KWT,


NOGAPS is breaking the ridge down as well, I believe the NAM is as well.




It's hard to believe with such model consensus it just won't happen you know. But we are talking 5 days out so anything is possible. I stick with model consensus myself.

To srainhoutx,


I agree. A track through the Caribbean would definitely change the dynamics. I am talking about the models honing in on CV wave development only. I just wanna be sure i'm clear on that because any development in the caribbean is more likely to be a GOM threat anywhere on the map. The question is can it make it there...


And btw...it is the EURO Mr. Unreliable at long distance, according to the NHC 2009 Verification.

[KWT]

The Euro is widely known as being the best model of them all...the problem last year was it was a strong El nino year...and the troughy models nearly always perform better in those years...What we saw with Alex and the GFS/CMC bneing too far north will repeat itself more then once more I reckon this year, just like it did with 2007. The ECM does IMO have a westerly bias at times though.
Also lets not forget that last season was dominated by 3 systems, Bill, Fred and Ida...if the model performed badly on any one its in trouble...

As you say there is going to be a weakening of the ridge BUT global patterns strongly support the ridge still being a major factor this August, but perhaps not quite as dominant as it was in the first half of July when asll the waves were shunted well south. Who knows whether a weakness places itself right for the E.Coast, I'd argue there is a decent chance it will at least once more this season but it all depends whether anything is about to make the msot of it

[Weatherfreak000]

The Euro is widely known as being the best model of them all...the problem last year was it was a strong El nino year...and the troughy models nearly always perform better in those years...

What we saw with Alex and the GFS/CMC bneing too far north will repeat itself more then once more I reckon this year, just like it did with 2007.

As you say there is going to be a weakening of the ridge BUT global patterns strongly support the ridge still being a major factor this August, but perhaps not quite as dominant as it was in the first half of July when asll the waves were shunted well south. Who knows whether a weakness places itself right for the E.Coast, I'd argue there is a decent chance it will at least once more this season but it all depends whether anything is about to make the msot of it

That statement is purely subjective KWT. You can not back it up with facts. I would suggest you avoid misinformation.


Provided is the NHC's official take on the EURO model. Note that it is the most expensive.

European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Model

Developed and maintained by an international organization supported by 28 European member states, the ECMWF model is the most sophisticated and computationally expensive of all the operational global models currently used by NHC. The ECMWF system provides forecasts out to 240 hours at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Some of the specifications of the model are noted in Table 2. Due to the model.s complexity/resolution, data assimilation, and the operational requirements of the member states, the ECMWF model is among the latest-arriving dynamical model guidance to NHC. The ECMWF, like the GFS and NOGAPS, is a spectral model that calculates parameters using spherical harmonics instead of grid points.