Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TornadoAlleyMom]

Can someone describe the winter of '77-'78? I hadn't made my debut into this world yet

[lrak]

Can someone describe the winter of '77-'78? I hadn't made my debut into this world yet

Hmmm...no one wants to reveal their age?



77-78 was like this

76-77 was just as cold but not as much precipitation IIRC.

[lrak]

Forgot my manners, hello and welcome to the forums TornadoAlleyMom!

[HockeyTx82]

I totally forgot about this, NWS Ft. Worth has a link on there site for it.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=toroutbreak2006retro

[srainhoutx]

Alaskan Extended Disco offer yet more "hints" of what lies ahead...

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
150 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 19 2009 - 12Z WED DEC 23 2009

A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF ALASKA
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW WILL DEPART BACK TO THE
ARCTIC OCEAN AND HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
THOUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE
AVERAGE SYNOPTICALLY BUT STILL LAGS IN INDIVIDUAL SYSTEM DETAILS.

THE GFS FAMILY OF SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE GEFS MEMBERS AND THE NOW
OPERATIONAL /ONCE PARALLEL/ 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO BE QUICKER WITH
THE OVERALL FLOW THAN THE ECMWF FAMILY WITH THE CANADIAN MEMBERS
SPREAD OUT IN BETWEEN. THE FORECASTS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER IF ANYTHING SO HPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. THE OPERATIONAL 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET SHOW MORE SIMILARITY
TO THE 00Z ECMWF THAN TO THE 00Z-12Z GFS RUNS. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT STILL
RUNS A BIT FASTER.

THE END RESULT IS A FORECAST THAT HAS A DYING SYSTEM ON SAT/D4
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BUT A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE MODELS HAVE HAD THIS AT
VARYING INTENSITIES THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT SOMETHING AT LEAST AS
DEEP AS THE MID-960S MB SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. THIS SYSTEM
WOULD FACE BUILDING HEIGHTS TO ITS EAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA SO ITS
PROGRESS EASTWARD SHOULD BE HALTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE GULF OF
ALASKA IF NOT EARLIER.

USED MOSTLY A 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE
FORECAST... WITH AN INCREASED WEIGHT ON THE MEAN WITH TIME.

QUICK LOOK AT THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF SHOWS REASONABLE CONTINUITY
FROM ITS 00Z RUN.

FRACASSO

[jasons2k]

Just my $0.02 on DFW TV mets: David Finfrock is hands-down, the best guy in the market. He was taught by, and inherited the KXAS "throne" from the late, great Harold Taft. Harold mandated that all his mets had a met degree (what a concept), and was obsessive about the small details, such as making sure the remote cord went up the jacket sleeve. He reminds me a lot of Roy Leep of WTVT in Tampa in how he ran things.

McCauley is great - don't get me wrong - he is very detailed. But he does tend to go on the "hype" end of things. I've seen him call for a "rex block" a few times that was modelled and it just didn't pan out.

You guys up in DFW so have it good as far as TV mets go - some of the best talent around. Back in the 80's when you had the triumvirate of Taft-Dungan-Spann, I don't think there was another match anywhere in the US. And KXAS was tops for many years with the Taft-Finfrock-Chesner lineup. Sadly, that is no more...

[gboudx]

McCauley is great - don't get me wrong - he is very detailed. But he does tend to go on the "hype" end of things. I've seen him call for a "rex block" a few times that was modelled and it just didn't pan out.

I think Delkus has throttled him back a bit. I see Steve talking more about what "might" happen, rather than saying things like that "will" happen nowadays.

As for Finfrock, the poor guy always sounds like his voice is gonna give out on him. I like watching him, usually can catch him, then quickly jump to WFAA.

[srainhoutx]

HPC yet again biting on more Arctic Air surges aftern the Arctic Frontal Boundry this weekend...'stepping down' continues...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

[jasons2k]

I think Delkus has throttled him back a bit. I see Steve talking more about what "might" happen, rather than saying things like that "will" happen nowadays.

Yeah, we moved away in 2005...if that's the case, then kudos. I never could warm-up to Delkus though. Maybe I'm just too 'old school' and defer to the longtime locals.

As for Finfrock, the poor guy always sounds like his voice is gonna give out on him. I like watching him, usually can catch him, then quickly jump to WFAA.

I dunno what's up with that. It started some years ago...but he used to not have that problem. I feel for him - I wondered if it was a temporary allergy issue but I guess not...

OK, sorry, I don't mean to hijack the thread --

I do think we will see the coldest air of the season (thus far) by New Years'. I am also concerned that Florida may have another bad freeze out of this. They had the worst freeze there in years last season - it put the USDA hardiness zones back "in check" to what they should be (pre "warming" era). I hope this won't be another repeat for them too.

[mrgolf]

Hello Everyone.I live around memphis,tn.Im enjoying this cold weather,but im ready to see a winter event.The 12zgfs looked interesting,even though it 8-10 days out.Its all about timing and lowplacement.I assume the pattern hasnt been conducive for us to see a winterstorm quite yet.i wouldnt mind a 1977-78 or 1976-77 redux again. Ive heard the 12zeuro looked interesting.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Final Extended Disco offers a lot of "nuggets"...though fairly short...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
224 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 18 2009 - 12Z TUE DEC 22 2009

A STRONG AND RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY AT HIGH LATITUDES OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND CANADA FAVORS CLOSED CYCLONES UNDER ITS
BASE IN THE LOWER 40S LATITUDE. A NEGATIVE ANOMALY RETROGRADING
THROUGH ALASKA FAVORS RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA...AND COULD ALLOW
FOR A SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE MODELS AGREE ON THESE IDEAS. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
DECREASING SPREAD IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES...THOUGH DETAIL SPREAD IN THE MID TO UPPER PATTERN FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST IS LARGE AND THE
FORECAST THERE REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. OUR UPDATED PRELIM CHOSE A
CHOSE A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF BASED ON ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING OF LOW CENTERS...AND AFTER BROWSING THE 500 HPA
ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS USING THE 5400 METER AND 5520 METER
CONTOURS.
FINAL GRAPHICS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLIER UPDATED PRELIM
GIVEN THE VOLATILITY
OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THEIR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ALONG
AND OFFSHORE THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS SAT-MON DAYS 4-6.

SOUTH AND EAST...

UPDATE FROM THIS MORNING...

THIS AREA STILL IS A FOCUS FOR MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS MOST OF THE 12Z
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH THE TRACK OF A MAJOR
STORM SYS SAT-SUN FROM CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z/15 MODELS.
HOWEVER...THE NEW 12Z/15 ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD ON THE A TRACK
FAR ENOUGH W TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AND PERHAPS EXTREME
SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF CONTINUES NEAR THE WRN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYS BUT IT IS
A DAY FASTER WITH ITS DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT.

A FRONTAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO
THE EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST. ONCE IT NEARS THE
BAHAMAS...THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH A SMALLER SOUTHERN CAMP COMPRISED OF ONE-THIRD OF THE
MEMBERS MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF BERMUDA WITH THE LOW WEAKENING
MARKEDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE AZORES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN
CAMP MOVES THE RESULTANT CYCLONE NORTHWARD OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST. DETAIL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER KEEP THE FORECAST SHROUDED IN
UNCERTAINTY. IF A MORE WESTERN UPPER CENTER FORMS IN THE GREAT
LAKES DUE TO BUILDING POSITIVE ANOMALIES IN CANADA...WHICH IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY...THAN THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY UP THE
EAST COAST BRINGING HEAVY SNOWS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND STATES AND POSSIBLY BRINGS A MILD/EASTERLY MARITIME POLAR
AIR MASS INTO MAINE...WHICH WOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEXT
MONDAY/TUESDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
VERIFY...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WHISKED WELL OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N 70W
BENCHMARK WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MUCH LOWER SNOW TOTALS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS IDEA WOULD ALSO KEEP
NEW ENGLAND COLD UNDER THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. A COMPROMISE OF
THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z ECMWF SPLITS THE UNCERTAINTY HERE UNTIL THE
MODELS AGREE ON THE EXPECTED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA.

NORTHWEST...

AS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE ACCELERATED THIS SYSTEMS NORTHEAST
PROGRESSION SINCE THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OF SHORT DURATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO THE WEST.

ROTH/FLOOD

[lrak]

Hi mrgolf and WELCOME, sounds like you have been a lurker

[mrgolf]

I have.I surf all the weather forums.The eastern weather forum is down right now.Why,i really dont know.It was down last weekend because the snowstorm that hit there.Im mostly on southeast weather forums and tennessee weather forums.We havent had hardly any winterwx in 3-4 years besides the snows in march this yr and in 08.

[srainhoutx]

Welcome mrgolf. You'll find we're a good group of weather folks and enjoy all things weather related.

[snow and ice]

12z EURO @ 240 is a 77-78 pattern redux:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121512!!/

Also checkout the continuity between the 8-10 day means of the EURO and the Ensembles. That is something you rarely see. Both have strong blocking over the top with lowered anomalies underneath, with an active jet.

8-10 Day EURO-Ensemble Means:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

[srainhoutx]

12z EURO @ 240 is a 77-78 pattern redux:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9121512!!/

Also checkout the continuity between the 8-10 day means of the EURO and the Ensembles. That is something you rarely see. Both have strong blocking over the top with lowered anomalies underneath, with an active jet.

8-10 Day EURO-Ensemble Means:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... tcomp.html

Fit well with the AFD from Amarillo this afternoon...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
240 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD AIR WILL LOOSE ITS GRIP ON THE PANHANDLES FOR A DAY AS A LEE-
SIDE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES ENCOURAGE
DOWNSLOPE WARMING WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30
MILE AN HOUR RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE
EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA
MAY RELAX SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVES IN.

NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. THEREFORE...
HAVE ADDED SOME 20 PERCENT POPS FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DURING THE
DAY AND SNOW AT NIGHT.

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST...SO WE CAN EXPECT GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABOUT EVERY
OTHER DAY.

[HockeyTx82]

Guess things are starting to come together.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE RED RIVER
AND 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE 20S IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES ....UPPER 20S IN THE
METROPLEX AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE THERE WILL BE
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR WEST TEXAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION
EASTWARD. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER ENERGY OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF
SHORE. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA AND GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS
THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF WACO...BUT
DO NOT BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BLOCK NORTH TEXAS
OF ANY RETURN OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS.
YESTERDAY...BOTH MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN RETROGRADING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BACK INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH DOWN FROM CANADA. THE GFS KEPT THE TROUGH AND
COLDEST AIR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...AND THE ECMWF
BROUGHT A STRONGER TROUGH FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE COLD AIR IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TODAYS 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH A SOLUTION CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN OF THE GFS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL BUT NOT
THE BITTER COLD AIR THE ECMWF WAS ADVERTISING YESTERDAY.

So I guess the bitter cold is coming later on in the week?

[Portastorm]

HockeyTx82 ... in terms of actual weather, I wouldn't have too much confidence in any computer model right now beyond 72 hours. Like many of us have been saying, use the models for trends. Heck, the NWSFO for Austin/San Antonio changed its high temperature forecast TWICE today and that was within 12 hours time!! NWSFO Fort Worth also had to lower their forecasted highs today.

It has only been in the last 24 hours that we have seen some agreement between the Euro and GFS. If that happens for a few more days then we all can be more confident in what they are predicting. For now though ... you should be looking for trends.

The "trends" suggest an airmass of Arctic origin will come down the central and eastern US close to Christmas. That airmass should be colder than anything we have seen this year. The week between Christmas and New Years may feature an even colder airmass.

[rhoby13]

Keep'em coming! This could be a lot of fun. I have never in my life looked at so many forecast models before.

[Ntxw]

This is somewhat exciting, it's been awhile since i've seen this type of set up. This should be quite fun!