ATL: Ex-Hurricane DANIELLE - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It's wait and see I think. If Danielle can hold out even somewhat in this setback, she could easily come back quickly and strong as we have already seen...conditions were never that great either, the best lie ahead...as for 15 to 20 kt of shear, she has always been under at least that, the dry air just got to the core. The best conditions look to be after the recurve.

[wxman57]

By the way, I measured a 6-hr and 3-hr movement on Danielle's center and got a heading of 300 degrees at 25-28 kts.

[StormClouds63]

I expected a beautiful hurricane this morning but it looks like Danielle has fallen off a cliff.....just goes to show how the tropics can take unexpected turns. Might be down to TS status right now......MGC

Welcome to 2010 MGC

Well put, CZ.

[sandyb]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
some please explain what is gonna turn her northward looks like it will follow the high and come west

[abajan]

Well, she’s weakened considerably but Bermuda is now in the Cone of Silence



(Not a laughing matter really. I think Andrew in ’92 also became rather weak and disorganized, only to later become a monster.)

[cpdaman]

looks like the last 3 hours danielle's movement has been about 305 degrees....and moving very fast!

this will be intersting to track this afternoon......seems like she hasn't even reached the higher shear yet....

[tailgater]

By the way, I measured a 6-hr and 3-hr movement on Danielle's center and got a heading of 300 degrees at 25-28 kts.

Wow she's in a big hurry now. Probably running late, already got naked what's next. Don't answer that!

[sandyb]

looks like the last 3 hours danielle's movement has been about 305 degrees....and moving very fast!

this will be intersting to track this afternoon......seems like she hasn't even reached the higher shear yet....

so what direction is 305 west? north west? south west help me out here

[wxman57]

looks like the last 3 hours danielle's movement has been about 305 degrees....and moving very fast!

this will be intersting to track this afternoon......seems like she hasn't even reached the higher shear yet....

so what direction is 305 west? north west? south west help me out here

300 deg is WNW, 305 is NW. It's moving close to NW now:

[plasticup]

so what direction is 305 west? north west? south west help me out here

Northwest. It's like on a compass:

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
some please explain what is gonna turn her northward looks like it will follow the high and come west

The upper low north of Danielle creates a huge weakness that will cause the storm to turn more northward.

[cpdaman]

the only small question i have is with a movement of 27 knots LOL....could she outrun the weakness and bend back more West later this evening?

[plasticup]

She is running at 27 knots because of the weakness. Strong steering = fast storm.

[sandyb]

the only small question i have is with a movement of 27 knots LOL....could she outrun the weakness and bend back more West later this evening?

good question cant wait for the answer

[CrazyC83]

Seems to look a bit better now...and convection is picking up again with a partial eyewall reforming...I'd say it is still a hurricane at least, although probably down to 65 kt.

[GCANE]

Seems to be a bit of resurgence now.

12Z AMSU seems to have located the core.

Colder and more ragged looking, but still there.

A strong cell is firing close to the LLC now

I think in part the mid-levels may have been moistened in part from some of the convection that was firing earlier this morning west of the LLC.

Boundary-layer still showing dry air intrusion.

[CrazyC83]

It looks much better now looking at the latest satellite. Maybe the eye will pop back out soon.

[CrazyC83]

AL, 06, 2010082418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 475W, 65, 990, HU

Down to 65 kt but still a hurricane...seems quite reasonable since it has been improving this afternoon. It might have been a tropical storm back around 1200-1500Z.

[CrazyC83]

I would say at 1500Z it was a tropical storm. But I think it is back to hurricane status now.

[CrazyC83]

Center no longer exposed at all and convection firing in the SW quad as well as in the core area.